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I am irrationally excited about this game. The market says a Dogs loss is all-but assured, but they’ve said that every week.
Every week, we’ve seen that match ups matter, and here’s why that is a critical assumption for this game.
The Dogs have been underdogs in both of their finals to date – significantly so against the West Coast Eagles in week one, and less so against the Hawks in the semi final round.
Their injuries were supposed to be terminal for their prospects, yet here we are, one week from grand final day, talking about the Dogs being a sneaky chance against football’s version of the Six Million Dollar Man.
Their victories have been on brand: swarming numbers directed at the ball, and a spread that teams like West Coast and Hawthorn are not set up to contain.
The Dogs beat the Eagles in the clinches, before carving the Hawks like an explorer cutting his way through an overgrown jungle. They ended week one with a relatively ho-hum contested possession differential of +23, before turning the dial up to 11 and beating the Hawks by half a century.
Contested possession differential is an overused metric, and it is barely relevant for a dozen of the league’s teams. But for the Dogs, it appears to be a religion: “go forth and hard ball get, my sons” is the catch cry of Luke Beveridge and his coaching staff.
That has worked wonders in the finals series to date, but it could be due to who they have played.
West Coast emerged as one of the league’s softest teams through the middle in 2016 – save for Nic Naitanui, Matt Priddis and Luke Shuey – and the Dogs were able to exploit this.
Same with the Hawks, whose issue winning the ball in the middle of the ground become a storyline unto itself this season.
This afternoon, the Dogs are playing a team that can match them in ball-winning prowess. Season-long contested possession differential isn’t a great forward looking metric, but it hints at the style of play of teams.
The Dogs are number one with a differential of +13.7 per game, where the Giants are third at +10.6. When we take contested marks and free kicks out of the equation, we have the two strongest groundball sides in the competition: +12.7 for the Giants and +11.2 for the Dogs.
What a fantastic proposition.
There’s little doubt the Giants are a strong chance to win. They can match the Dogs in the area of the ground that matters most to the Dogs, and have the personnel and systems to win in other ways if they’re able to break even in the clinches.
It’s been a couple of weeks since the Giants have played, so here is a brief reminder of what they’re capable of.
If anyone tells you the @GWSGiants can't win the flag, show them this #AFLNorthGiants #AFL pic.twitter.com/EfaOYPtTsV
— Ryan Buckland (@RyanBuckland7) August 28, 2016
And then, of course, there was this gem from Johnson to start. 1% margin for error; didn't matter #AFLCatsGiants pic.twitter.com/SLQWei6icX
— Ryan Buckland (@RyanBuckland7) June 5, 2016
This week's entry into the "holy crap the @GWSGIANTS are good" gif competition is a cracker #AFL pic.twitter.com/OvAgkNfzd5
— Ryan Buckland (@RyanBuckland7) May 24, 2016
Do not give them space, because they will move the ball with ruthless efficiency and put up six points every time. They don’t even need a lot of space.
But, there is fragility there. At least in the same way that the Eagles and Hawks are fragile. A team with a strong outside game is like a house of cards – meticulously built and really pretty to look at, but precariously formed.
If the Dogs are able to starve the Giants of possession, by winning the ball themselves and holding on to it, they can keep themselves in the game.
Also in the Giants’ favour are the respective match ups at the pointy ends of the ground. GWS have firepower to burn up forward, and looms as too big and strong in the air for the Dogs to repel if there is any semblance of supply.
Jonathon Patton emerged in the second half of this year as the power forward he promised to be as the number one pick in 2011 – in no small measure due to the continuity of playing 22 games this season.
He and Jeremy Cameron are a nightmare match up, and the Dogs’ problems only compound when Rory Lobb is thrown forward. Toby Greene is also a huge threat, albeit one the Dogs back line will feel confident in nullifying with their bevvy of mid sized defenders. Rhys Palmer is a wildcard, in so far as he has averaged an unfathomable 30+ touches and three goals a game in the NEAFL this season: he could run riot, or act as nothing more than a flanker to clear space for the Giants’ regulars.
The Dogs will feel confident in their ability to run out of the back half, though, setting up an interesting game of chess between the two head coaches. Beveridge will almost certainly look to play a spare man to counter the aerial threats of the Giants, and Leon Cameron may be content to let the loose man free to counter the Dogs’ running game.
Down the other end, Phil Davis and Tom Boyd will probably nullify each other, leaving two line ups chock full of mid sized players to go to work. Expect to see the Dogs press super hard once they get the ball inside forward 50 – it’s high risk because the Giants are so efficient at scoring from their defensive half.
As you can probably tell, it’s really hard to go past the Giants. They are as close to a complete football team as we have seen since peak Hawthorn, capable of playing every way at a high level. The Dogs have a clear identity and one that could see them home if everything went to plan, but it is hard to predict that with any level of confidence.
What is certain is this game will be scorching early. The Giants and Dogs are the two best ground ball teams in the competition, and everything they do starts with winning the ball in tight.
Footscray have got this far by throwing themselves at the contest, and the Giants, with a week off on their side, will be fresh and ready to match them. The first quarter of this game has the potential to be a blood bath.
The atmosphere will support this. From the skerrick of information we’ve seen on ticket sales, it looks like the crowd at Spotless Stadium will be split very close to 50-50. The Western Bulldogs Twitter account is laden with retweets from fans road tripping their way west – Sydney’s west, which is actually north. You get the idea.
Their trips are likely to be in vain. The Giants will win the day; the path to victory for the Dogs is just too narrow. Make no mistake though, this is the first of what is likely to be many high stakes match ups between these two in the years ahead. GWS by 24 points.
That’s my Finals Forecast, what’s yours?