The defending premiers and most successful club in the history of the NBL, the Perth Wildcats, will enter the 2016-17 season with a better than average chance of going back-to-back and should be in for another strong season.
The Wildcats were fantastic last season, and despite finishing in second place on the ladder, always looked to be the best team after Christmas.
Tey only missed out on the minor premiership due to a losing record in their season series with Melbourne United.
Come the finals, they were challenged by the Illawarra Hawks and clearly more so by the New Zealand Breakers in the but they ended up clinching the premiership with a dominant performance.
Perth have won seven premierships in the history of the NBL, with the first of those in 1990 and the last three coming this decade, with wins in 2010, 2014 and last season.
Incredibly, the next-best sides historically are the Adelaide 36ers, Melbourne United and New Zealand Breakers who have only four premierships apiece, so the dominance of Perth can’t be understated.
It helps of course, that they have the most challenging road trip in the league. While there are no doomsday doubles this year, when a team plays Perth and Adelaide in the same round, it doesn’t make a trip to the west any less daunting.
At 13,000 seats, the Perth Arena seats mightn’t be the biggest in the league anymore, with the Sydney Kings now playing out of Qudos Bank Arena, but it’s still the most challenging with a sell-out nearly every time they hit the floor.
Time difference is also an issue, with a vast majority of their games tipping off at 9:30pm for teams coming from the east coast, which is only amplified come finals time when teams can play as many as three games in six days.
Despite all those obvious advantages, the Wildcats look vulnerable compared to this time last season. While they have all the experience, players are starting to get on in age and coach Trevor Gleeson has unloaded on the imports, telling them to step up after some poor pre-season form.
The Wildcats are always hard to beat of course, but the cracks are starting to show after last year’s rock solid premiership performance.
Squad Lucas Walker, Jaron Johnson (import), Greg Hire, Jameel McKay (import), Jarrod Kenny, Matthew Knight, Dexter Kernich-Drew, Angus Brandt, Casey Prather (import), Jesse Wagstaff, Shawn Redhage, Corban Wroe (development), Damian Martin (captain)
Coach: Trevor Gleeson
Ins: Angus Brandt, Jaron Johnson, Jameel McKay, Dexter Kernich-Drew, Lucas Walker
Outs: Tom Jervis, Jermaine Beal, Nate Jawai, Matthew Knight (2 months – injury)
Retained: Greg Hire, Jarrod Kenny, Matthew Knight, Casey Prather, Jesse Wagstaff, Shawn Redhage, Corban Wroe, Damian Martin
Likely depth chart
| Starter | Interchange 1 | Interchange 2 | |
| Point guard | Damian Martin | Jarrod Kenny | Corban Wroe |
| Shooting guard | Jaron Johnson | Greg Hire | Dexter Kirnrich-Drew |
| Small forward | Casey Prather | Jesse Wagstaff | |
| Power forward | Matthew Knight | Shawn Redhage | Lucas Walker |
| Centre | Jameel McKay | Angus Brandt |
Dealing with the elephant in the room first, and the Wildcats imports must step up to the plate for the team to be successful once again this season.
After the excellent showings for the most part from the freakishly athletic Casey Prather last season, he has been retained but Jermaine Beal has taken his shooting and flare to the Brisbane Bullets.
With the new rule allowing for three imports in any team, the Wildcats went on the hunt and found themselves a centre in Jameel McKay, who has a massive role to play with Nate Jawai signing for the Cairns Taipans, and shooting guard Jaron Johnson who effectively replaces Beal.
What the Wildcats were able to combine so well last season was the aggressiveness of Beal and Prather, with the calm and defensive-first approach of Boomers player Damian Martin.
But without the shooting of Beal, that approach simply isn’t going to work. As inconsistent as he was at times, Beal had the ability to heat up from beyond the arc in a hurry and it’s difficult to see where that sort of output is going to come from this time around.
While Martin will continue his defensive approach and Prather will keep on running the floor, it’s going to be a lot harder for him to find space unless Jaron Johnson steps up and delivers the goods.
Both Johnson and McKay were both publicly blasted for ‘terrible’ performances after the Wildcats went down to the 36ers in Geraldton during the pre-season, and it’s not hard to see why with only Jesse Wagstaff and Prather bringing the Wildcats back to within striking distance during the final quarter.
At 24 years of age, Johnson went undrafted in the NBA in 2014 and has since been plying his trade in the NBA D-League for the Rio Grande Valley Vipers.
While Johnson is known to be a shooter of the ball, he won’t be able to provide anything near what Beal did, so the Wildcats need to switch their focus, getting their big men more involved on offence.
That, though, is a problem in itself. With no Jawai to create space under the boards and Matt Knight injured for the first two months of the season, there are going to be major problems unless McKay stands up.
McKay only averaged 11 points per game in his college career, and that is going to need to improve, although the signing of Angus Brandt is an exciting prospect for fans in the red army.
Brandt was one of the Sydney Kings’ more consistent performers last year in a very badly beaten team and he should only continue to improve by playing on the back of Damian Martin’s passing, and with the experience of Wagstaff and Shawn Redhage to guide him.
Brandt’s role becomes even more important when you consider he’s replacing one of the NBL’s best rotation players in Tom Jervis, who has also gone to the Bullets.
What McKay will provide, though, is a critical defensive presence under the boards. He was named the big-12 defensive player of the year, averaging 2.4 blocks per game in 2014-15.
With Martin, who is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBL, points will be very hard to come by for opposition teams, and that could be the story of the season for Perth: grounding out wins in low-scoring games.
Prather could be the one to benefit from the excellent defensive presence, with his run-and-gun style likely to feed off the missed shots and tipped passes which will ensue.
The experience of Wagstaff and Redhage coming off the bench is going to be another essential ingredient for the Wildcats’ playing style this season.
Essentially, they are two of the NBL’s most aggressive veterans who are going to fight on every trip down the floor whether on offence or defence.
The problem is they are both getting on in age and will need reduced minutes if they are to keep up their trademark level of intensity.
With Knight out early in the season, that is going to be a real problem and an injury to either one of them will throw plans into dissaray.
Where the Wildcats are lacking in is at their back-up guard rotation. While Greg Hire is solid and will do a job, more may be needed without Beal on the floor. Jarrod Kenny struggled badly last season, however.
While Kenny has the talent to shoot the ball whenever he pleases, it almost looked like he got stage fright and just refused to play his natural game, which severly hurt Perth.
All in all, there are plenty of questions to be answered about the Wildcats’ roster but under Trevor Gleeson and with the experience floating around the camp that they have, you would expect them to be answered emphatically early in the season.
Whether they can play consistently is going to be what defines the men from the west this season.
Schedule
| Round | Date | Time (AEDT) | Opponent | Venue |
| 1 | Thu Oct 6 | 7:30 PM | Brisbane Bullets | Brisbane Entertainment Centre |
| 1 | Sat Oct 8 | 9:30 PM | Cairns Taipans | Perth Arena |
| 2 | Fri Oct 14 | 9:30 PM | New Zealand Breakers | Perth Arena |
| 3 | Fri Oct 21 | 9:30 PM | Illawarra Hawks | Perth Arena |
| 3 | Sun Oct 23 | TBC | Melbourne United | Hisense Arena |
| 4 | Fri Oct 28 | 7:30 PM | Illawarra Hawks | WIN Entertainment Centre |
| 5 | Sat Nov 5 | 9:30 PM | Adelaide 36ers | Perth Arena |
| 6 | Sun Nov 13 | 7:00 PM | New Zealand Breakers | Perth Arena |
| 7 | Thu Nov 17 | 9:30 PM | Sydney Kings | Perth Arena |
| 7 | Sat Nov 19 | 7:30 PM | Sydney Kings | Qudos Bank Arena |
| 8 | Sun Nov 27 | 7:00 PM | Illawarra Hawks | Perth Arena |
| 9 | Thu Dec 1 | 9:30 PM | Brisbane Bullets | Perth Arena |
| 9 | Sun Dec 3 | 7:30 PM | Adelaide 36ers | Titanium Security Arena |
| 10 | Fri Dec 9 | 9:30 PM | Melbourne United | Perth Arena |
| 11 | Thu Dec 15 | 7:30 PM | New Zealand Breakers | Vector Arena |
| 12 | Thu Dec 22 | 7:30 PM | Adelaide 36ers | Titanium Security Arena |
| 13 | Sat Dec 31 | 5:30 PM | Illawarra Hawks | WIN Entertainment Centre |
| 14 | Sat Jan 7 | 7:30 PM | Sydney Kings | Qudos Bank Arena |
| 14 | Mon Jan 9 | 7:30 PM | Brisbane Bullets | Brisbane Convention and Exhibition Centre |
| 15 | Sat Jan 14 | 9:30 PM | Adelaide 36ers | Perth Arena |
| 15 | Mon Jan 16 | 7:30 PM | Cairns Taipans | Cairns Convention Centre |
| 16 | Fri Jan 20 | 9:30 PM | Cairns Taipans | Perth Arena |
| 16 | Sun Jan 22 | TBC | New Zealand Breakers | Vector Arena |
| 17 | Sat Jan 28 | 9:30 PM | Melbourne United | Perth Arena |
| 18 | Fri Feb 3 | 9:30 PM | Brisbane Bullets | Perth Arena |
| 18 | Sun Feb 5 | TBC | Cairns Taipans | Cairns Convention Centre |
| 19 | Fri Feb 10 | 9:30 PM | Sydney Kings | Perth Arena |
| 19 | Sun Feb 12 | TBC | Melbourne United | Hisense Arena |
As is always the case with Perth, they have a massively front-loaded schedule due to the Perth Arena being out of action when the Hopman Cup tennis tournament comes to town in early 2017.
After starting the season with what should be an absolute blockbuster against the Brisbane Bullets, they then play eight of their next 11 at home which should allow them to develop a foothold at the top of the ladder.
Their away games will be far from easy, though, as they travel to New Zealand and Sydney, playing the Breakers and Kings.
From Thursday, December 15 to Saturday January 7, they play five straight games on the road with matches again against the Breakers and the Kings.
For Perth, it’s imperative they are qualified for the finals before the final round, when they take on the Kings and United with just one day in between the matches.
Prediction
The Wildcats should be in for another strong season, and if everything goes right as it did last time around there is no reason they can’t go back-to-back and win their fourth competition in seven seasons.
However, there are questions. The form of their imports is laden with question marks, as is the longevity of their experienced heads.
Based on all that it’s hard to predict them winning it. It would however, be a massive shock if they weren’t to make the finals.
PredictionThird. If they play the Kings in the semi-finals, then another grand-final appearance may await and, from there, anything is possible.
Roarers, what do you reckon? Can the Wildcats go back-to-back or will they fall down a few rungs on the ladder?
That wraps up The Roar‘s NBL season preview series. Hopefully you have enjoyed it. Be sure to tune in throughout the course of the season for our live coverage and analysis of the league.
Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde
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