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Geelong - where to from here?

Is Patrick Dangerfield the best player in the AFL? (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Expert
24th September, 2016
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Having been defeated in fairly emphatic fashion by the Swans in last night’s preliminary final, the next few weeks will undoubtedly turn to questions of what went wrong for Geelong, and what they need to do to go one step further next year.

Personally, I think there are several reasons why the Cats were unable to go all the way this year.

Despite their off-season recruiting spree, the Cats ultimately lacked the depth to contend with other top teams. They sold the farm to get Dangerfield at the end of last season, giving up draft picks 9, 28 and untried midfielder Dean Gore, while also recruiting Zac Smith, Lachie Henderson and the other Selwood, Scott, to fill roles.

Given their list profile, the Cats rightly judged that they were in premiership contention, and decided to fill holes on their list with seasoned players rather than go to the draft.

Recruiting Dangerfield was absolutely the right move – they netted themselves the best player in the competition, and 16 other clubs would have made the same move had he been up for grabs. His presence in the midfield has allowed Joel Selwood more freedom and taken the pressure off the captain.

Selwood the Younger was always going to be a ‘wait and see’ proposition, given he came to Geelong rehabbing a serious ankle injury, He provided a reasonable return when he did get on the park in the second half of the year, and will be better next year for having some continuity in his football.

Henderson and Smith both had good seasons, although Smith tired towards the end of the season.

However, I would argue that the issue here is that the Cats made these trades at the expense of improving their team depth. As the old adage goes, a team is only as good as its bottom six players, and I would argue that Geelong’s recent recruitment hasn’t done much to improve this.

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Dangerfield, Smith, Henderson and Selwood should all be best 22 players at their best, and certainly bring value to the team, but it has meant that Geelong has a team of several superstars, a layer of good, solid players, and then the level drops off dramatically.

It’s harsh to single out players, but those such as Jed Bews, Tom Ruggles, and Josh Cowan would probably not be playing in most other sides. Jackson Thurlow’s absence down back really hurt the team, as it meant Ruggles and Bews were relied upon to player taller than they would normally, and meant the Cats lacked rebound off half back.

Cowan tries hard, but is just an honest player. Of those who didn’t play last night, players such as George Horlin-Smith, Billie Smedts, and Darcy Lang would also fit this bill.

Coupled with this has been the fact that the Cats have had few players who have improved this year – I struggle to name one who has genuinely improved. Nokia Cockatoo took some steps forward before he got injured, as did Jake Kolodjashnij, but both are still developing.

The middle tier of players including Mark Blicavs, Josh Caddy, Mitch Duncan, Steven Motlop, Rhys Stanley, Jordan Murdoch and Cory Gregson all went backwards or failed to improve this season, showing glimpses of their talent but often frustrating supporters with their lack of consistency.

Sam Menegola has been a find, but you can hardly label him as an improved player given this is his first real year in the system. At a pinch, Daniel Menzel has been the big improver this year, but that’s only because he was coming off a low base with his injuries – we already knew he was a talented player.

Finally, the team overall lacks class. It’s a strange thing to say given the Cats were the epitome of class in their premiership years of 2007, 2009 and 2011, but they currently have few players on their list who are elite kicks or have elite pace.

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Dangerfield, for all his ability, often has shocking kicking efficiency given he hacks the ball out of the centre so often. Duncan and Guthrie are probably the classiest ball users, but again, this is not used often enough. Guthrie seems to have been thrown around all parts of the ground rather than being settled in one position, and his form has suffered.

Compare this to their opponent of last night. Sydney has also attracted big-name recruits, such as Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett, but this has been coupled with topping up their depth. Players such as George Hewett, Dan Robinson, Dean Towers, Harry Cunningham, Harrison Marsh and Sam Naismith are all depth players, but all have played roles, and would arguably be playing in other team’s first choice sides.

Their young players and those in the middle tier – players such as Isaac Heeney, Jake Lloyd, Zac Jones and Jeremy Laidler have all improved this year, and played their roles for the team. The Swans also got good value from their young players, notably Allir Allir, Callum Mills and Tom Papley, which has helped them big time.

The Swans have also made sure that they’ve kept some class in their team – Gary Rohan at half forward and midfield and Mills in defence being two that come to mind. They also have a number of good ball users around the ball and especially coming off half back.

Geelong is in a precarious position – their top six rival anyone in the competition, but they lack the depth to make a premiership assault going forward. So, do they continue to top up with players like Brett Deledio and Daniel Wells, as has been speculated, hoping that bringing in good players to play roles will help paper over a lack of depth overall (a strategy North Melbourne has recently employed to minimal success)? Or do they make wholesale changes, going to the draft to bolster their depth, but potentially robbing themselves of the best opportunity to win a flag with Dangerfield and Selwood in their prime?

I’d argue that, first and foremost, they need to recruit more class, more run off half back, and more speed. Players of this ilk would hopefully assist their middle tier players to develop and have more of an impact next year.

They need to decide which of their younger players can make the grade, because their current depth won’t take them to a grand final. If players like Smedts, Horlin-Smith, Murdoch, Gregson and Lang won’t take them to the next level, then the best way forward is to delist or trade them and build through the draft.

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A decision needs to be made on Motlop – his development has stagnated, but at his best he can be a match winner. He’s exactly the type of player they need more of, so it would be a big call to trade him, but the value they get in return may outweigh the impact he can have over the next few years. Letting him go may allow them to snag a few quality players from other teams.

The club recruited for a flag last year, but their lack of depth has meant they’ve fallen short. The pieces of a successful team are all there, but they need players with more class and who will provide a more consistent effort. Going to the draft, or bringing in younger players from other clubs, may set them back a few years, but would mean that they will be better placed to challenge for a flag again in a few years, with Dangerfield and Selwood still in their prime.

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