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Brownlow Predictor: What The Roar's AFL MVP says will happen

Expert
25th September, 2016
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Who will win the 2016 Brownlow Medal? (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Expert
25th September, 2016
2

Brownlow night is here! Regardless of the winner – and regardless of how clear it is ahead of time who is going to win – it’s a night all anticipate, a chance to sit back and have a bit of fun, take football less seriously, and relive some of the highlights of the season.

Where are the votes going tonight? Well, we’ve run The Roar’s AFL MVP during the season, as voted on by our live blogging team, by the same format as the Brownlow itself – so we reckon we’ve got a half-decent idea of who will pick up votes and who won’t.

This year our MVP ended in a thrilling tie between Partick Dangerfield and Dustin Martin who each landed on 30 votes. The popular opinion around the league, however, is strongly in favour of Dangerfield winning the award outright.

My gut feel is that’s probably what will happen, but the fact that Martin did so well in our count suggests he might be an outside chance to win the whole thing – surprises do happen on Brownlow night after all – or at least, a very likely chance to finish in second.

The prestigious AFL Brownlow Medal

The full top ten from our count was:

=1. Patrick Dangerfield (30 votes)
=1. Dustin Martin (30 votes)
3. Matt Priddis (23 votes)
4. Marcus Bontempelli (21 votes)
=5. Joel Selwood (20 votes)
=5. Robbie Gray (20 votes)
=7. Rory Sloane (19 votes)
=7. Sam Mitchell (19 votes)
=7. Max Gawn (19 votes)
=7. Dan Hannebery (19 votes)

Rory Sloane, finishing in that equal-seventh mix for us is, of course, ineligible for the award – if you wanted to take him out then the inclusions to the top ten would be Jack Steven, Nick Riewoldt and Zach Merrett, all sitting on equal tenth with 18 votes.

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Team-by-team, these were the top vote-getters in our count.

Adelaide Crows – Rory Sloane, 19 votes (ineligible), Eddie Betts, 14 votes (highest eligible)
Brisbane Lions – Tom Rockliff, 8 votes
Carlton Blues – Patrick Cripps, 17 votes
Collingwood Magpies – Scott Pendlebury, 17 votes
Essendon Bombers – Zach Merrett, 18 votes
Fremantle Dockers – Lachie Neale, 15 votes
Geelong Cats – Patrick Dangerfield, 30 votes
Gold Coast Suns – Gary Ablett, 9 votes
GWS Giants – Dylan Shiel, 13 votes
Hawthorn Hawks – Sam Mitchell, 19 votes
Melbourne Demons – Max Gawn, 19 votes
North Melbourne Kangaroos – Todd Goldstein, 8 votes
Port Adelaide Power – Robbie Gray, 20 votes
Richmond Tigers – Dustin Martin, 30 votes
St Kilda Saints – Jack Steven and Nick Riewoldt, 18 votes each
Sydney Swans – Dan Hannebery, 19 votes
West Coast Eagles – Matt Priddis, 23 votes
Western Bulldogs – Marcus Bontempelli, 21 votes

Has our blogging team got it right? Or wildly wrong? We’ll find out tonight. Let us know who you think is going to win and some of your other hot tips in the comments below.

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