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You don't need a Brownlow to win the flag, but it helps

Expert
26th September, 2016
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Who will win the 2016 Brownlow Medal? (Slattery Images)
Expert
26th September, 2016
9

The 2016 AFL Grand Final will be something of a rarity in that it will be just the third time since the turn of the millennium that the league’s ultimate fixture did not feature a Brownlow Medallist on either side of the field.

All the wash-up from the 2016 Brownlow Medal:
» Patrick Dangerfield wins the Brownlow
» Who got the most votes for your team?
» Red carpet photos and dress ratings
» WATCH: Majak Daw wins mark of the year
» WATCH: Eddie Betts wins goal of the year
» Re-live the night with our live blog
» The full leaderboard
» Every vote

The only previous occasions that has happened since 1999 were in 2010 when Collingwood played St Kilda, and in 2013 when Hawthorn played Fremantle.

That 2010 match featured a youngish Dane Swan who was just 12 months away from joining the Brownlow club, and some would argue that Sam Mitchell who did of course take to the field in 2013 deserves to be considered a Brownlow winner, and some day soon may officially be so.

In fact there’s a remarkable record of premiership teams regularly featuring Brownlow medallists. Since 2000, only four have not – those are 2010 and the Hawthorn three-peat, and as already detaileded, both of those sides arguably contained Brownlow-quality players.

Let’s run through them, shall we?

2000 – Essendon – James Hird
2001 – Brisbane – Michael Voss, Jason Akermanis
2002 – Brisbane – Michael Voss, Jason Akermanis, Simon Black
2003 – Brisbane – as above
2004 – Port Adelaide – Gavin Wanganeen (won while he played for Essendon)
2005 – Sydney – Adam Goodes
2006 – West Coast – Chris Judd, Ben Cousins
2007 – Geelong – Jimmy Bartel
2008 – Hawthorn – Shane Crawford
2009 – Geelong – Jimmy Bartel, Gary Ablett junior
2010 – Collingwood – none, though Dane Swan won it the next year
2011 – Geelong – Jimmy Bartel, Gary Ablett junior
2012 – Sydney – Adam Goodes
2013 – Hawthorn – none, though Sam Mitchell might still get the 2012 medal and currently has the most career votes of any player not to have won the medal
2014 – Hawthorn – as above
2015 – Hawthorn – as above

The 1996 and 1999 North Melbourne teams didn’t have a Brownlow medallist but they did have Corey McKernan who would’ve won it in 1996 alongside James Hird and Michael Voss if not ineligible due to suspension. The 1998 Adelaide team boasted future winner Mark Ricciuto.

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We often say in modern times that it’s more of a team game than ever, and that a championship side will beat a side of champions. And yes, a few of those listed above only narrowly squeeze in – there are some guys there who had Brownlows on their resumes but were very different players at the time of the premiership to what they where when they took home a Charlie.

Still, there’s no denying the cold hard facts – if you want to win a premiership, then having a player who is or was best-in-the-league quality certainly helps. And having two or three is even better!

Either Sydney or the Bulldogs will break the rule this Saturday, though the Swans have this year’s runner-up Luke Parker and the Bulldogs have Marcus Bontempelli, who feels like a future Brownlow winner.

Maybe the more accurate measure however is the total team votes count?

If that’s the case then Sydney need to be considered clear favourites for the flag. They score a combined 105 votes, thanks to the Herculean efforts of Parker, Dan Hannebery, Lance Franklin and Kieren Jack.

Unfortunately for the Swans, that’s not really the case. While the team with the most total Brownlow votes has played in the grand final 14 out of 17 times since 2000, they’ve only been the premiers on six occasions – most recently when the Swans themselves did it in 2012.

2000 – Essendon 116
2001 – Brisbane 99
2002 – Brisbane 100
2003 – Port Adelaide 96 (Brisbane were premiers and finished second with 92)
2004 – Brisbane 102 (Port Adelaide were premiers and finished second with 90)
2005 – Adelaide 92 (Sydney were premiers and finished fourth with 82)
2006 – West Coast 96
2007 – Geelong 106
2008 – Geelong 112 (Hawthorn were premiers and finished second with 91)
2009 – St Kilda 110 (Geelong were premiers and finished second with 98)
2010 – Geelong 104 (Collingwood were premiers and finished second with 89)
2011 – Collingwood 111 (Geelong were premiers and finished fifth with 85)
2012 – Sydney 93
2013 – Sydney 95 (Hawthorn were premiers and finished fourth with 83)
2014 – Sydney 96 (Hawthorn were premiers and finished second with 90)
2015 – West Coast 97 (Hawthorn were premiers and finished fifth with 88)

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The Bulldogs only came in at sixth on the total votes table this year with 81, though they notably had 14 players score votes, while the Swans only had 11 – so maybe they can claim better depth.

If they pull off the win it’ll be the least total votes and the lowest position on the total votes table that a team has won the flag from this millennium. Of course, those are hardly the only records they’ll break.

All things considered, the relationship between Brownlows and flags is a bit like that old saying about whether or not you need to be crazy to work here. The answer is no – but it definitely helps!

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