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It all comes down to this. After 206 matches, 824 quarters of football and the distribution of 1,188 Brownlow Medal votes, we are down to the biggest match of the year – and the one that will decide it all – the grand final.
The Sydney Swans and Western Bulldogs will do battle on the first Saturday of October, with the former looking to win its third premiership dating back to 2005 and the latter attempting to break what is currently the AFL’s longest premiership drought. The sons of the west have not saluted since 1954.
Both clubs had to contest three consecutive finals matches to get to where they are now, and both did so in contrasting circumstances.
After finishing as minor premiers, the Swans lost their first final to the GWS Giants by 36 points but rebounded to score impressive victories over the Adelaide Crows and Geelong Cats, producing strong opening quarters in both of those wins.
The Bulldogs, on the other hand, finished seventh on the ladder despite boasting one of the worst injury tolls of any club this season, more of which will be recapped below.
Despite the odds being stacked against them all September, Luke Beveridge’s men managed to defeat the West Coast Eagles in Perth before knocking out triple-reigning premiers Hawthorn at the MCG.
They then broke a seven-match losing streak in the penultimate weekend when they edged out the GWS Giants in an epic preliminary final at Spotless Stadium, having to come from 14 points down halfway through the final quarter to do so.
The scenes at full-time were heartening and exciting for long-suffering Bulldogs supporters, many of whom weren’t alive the last time the club reached a grand final when it lost to Hawthorn in 1961, or won its only premiership in 1954.
It will now remain to be seen if Luke Beveridge’s men can carry their momentum into the biggest match of the season. Here is your ultimate guide to the 2016 AFL grand final.
Western Bulldogs [7] versus Sydney Swans [1]
Saturday, October 1
2:30pm
Melbourne Cricket Ground
Last finals meeting: Western Bulldogs 11.11 (77) defeated Sydney Swans 10.12 (72) at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, first semi-final, 2010.
This season: Western Bulldogs 13.5 (83) defeated Sydney Swans 11.13 (79) at the Sydney Cricket Ground, Round 15.
Here we are.
It seems like only yesterday that the season started with many predicting that Hawthorn would achieve what only Collingwood (between 1927 and 1930) has achieved – win four consecutive premierships.
There was much hype surrounding Richmond and Carlton, who again had the honour of opening the season on a Thursday night at the MCG. The Tigers were looking to continue building on its three consecutive finals appearances, while it remained to be seen how the Blues would fare under new coach Brendon Bolton.
It also remained to be seen how the Geelong Cats, with the best player in the game in Patrick Dangerfield on their playing list, would fare after missing the finals the previous season for the first time since 2006.
Fast forward to now and only the Sydney Swans and Western Bulldogs are left standing, with the premiership cup to be decided over the course of four quarters this Saturday afternoon at the MCG.
After its straight-sets finals exit, and the loss of nearly a thousand games of experience at the end of last season, many believed that the Swans would slowly fall out of premiership contention.
But if anything, John Longmire’s men regenerated in record time, and with Lance Franklin back in good health after he took time out to deal with mental health issues, they once again find themselves in the biggest match of the year.
The Swans started the season with an 80-point thrashing of Collingwood at the SCG and it’s fair to say that it set the tone for their 2016 season.
They proved to be the most consistent team over the course of 23 rounds, compiling a 17-5 record, winning eleven matches by at least 38 points and conceding the least amount of points by any team.
This saw them claim their second minor premiership in the past three seasons.
But, as mentioned above, their premiership hopes took a blow when they lost to the GWS Giants by 36 points in their first qualifying final at ANZ Stadium, before they rebounded to beat the Adelaide Crows and Geelong Cats to get back on track.
And now here they are, in their third grand final in five years and fifth since 2005.
The Western Bulldogs, on the other hand, were looking to build on a surprise 2015 campaign which saw them finish sixth before they lost their elimination final to the Adelaide Crows by seven points at the MCG.
Luke Beveridge’s men started the season with a 65-point thrashing of last year’s minor premiers, Fremantle, and followed it up by beating St Kilda by 57 points, spoiling their captain Nick Riewoldt’s 300th game milestone in the process.
But their season was to take a turn for the worse when their own captain, Robert Murphy, suffered a serious knee injury in the dying minutes of their loss to Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium the following round.
It appeared at this stage the loss of their inspirational skipper alone would derail the club’s season.
Worse was to come in Round 18 when Jack Redpath and Mitch Wallis suffered serious knee and ankle injuries respectively against the Saints, and again the character of the playing list would be tested mentally and emotionally.
But somehow, the club managed to finish seventh on the ladder, a rung below where they finished in 2015, and were to travel to Perth for an elimination final against the West Coast Eagles.
Despite the odds being stacked against them, the Bulldogs would overpower last year’s runners-up to post a 47-point victory before returning home to knock out the reigning triple-premiers, Hawthorn, by 23 points at the MCG.
It was then thought that having to travel interstate for the third time in four matches, as well as facing a fresh GWS Giants side at their Spotless Stadium fortress, would finally spell the end for Luke Beveridge’s pups.
But it was not to be, as the Bulldogs would pull off a six-point victory to advance to its first grand final since 1961, where all of Victoria will now be behind them as they also attempt to break a 62-year premiership drought.
It is currently the longest such drought in the VFL/AFL, but if you think the club will be under any sorts of pressure to end that hoodoo, they need not be.
In 2005, the Sydney Swans broke a 72-year drought, at the time the longest in the sport’s history, by beating the West Coast Eagles by four points in the first of two classic deciders against their western rivals.
Now, it remains to be seen whether the burden of such a long time between drinks will be too much for the Western Bulldogs, or whether they can carry on the momentum from their past three matches all the way to the flag.
Stats that matter
* This will be the Sydney Swans’ 17th grand final, and first since 2014, while for the Western Bulldogs this will be their third grand final and first since 1961.
* The Swans will be shooting for their sixth premiership, the Western Bulldogs their second. Both are attempting to end droughts of four and 62 years respectively.
* The Bulldogs’ 62-year premiership drought is currently the longest in the AFL. Melbourne has the second-longest premiership drought, with 52 years.
* This will be their fourth finals meeting, with the previous three having all taken place at the MCG. The Western Bulldogs won all of them, in 1997, 2008 and 2010.
* This will be their first meeting in a grand final; the Bulldogs’ opponents in their two previous deciders were Melbourne and Hawthorn in 1954 and 1961 respectively.
* The Western Bulldogs will be the tenth different opponent the Swans have faced in a grand final.
* The Western Bulldogs are the first team to reach the grand final after finishing seventh at the end of the season, the first to do so under the current finals system and the first to do so from outside the top four since Carlton in 1999.
* This is the fifth consecutive grand final to pit a Victorian team against an interstate team.
* No team has won four consecutive finals to win the premiership since the Adelaide Crows in 1997.
* No team has won the flag from outside the top three since the Crows in 1998.
* If the Western Bulldogs win, Robert Murphy will become the first captain since Matthew Primus (Port Adelaide, 2004) to miss a premiership win (coincidentally, Primus suffered a season-ending knee injury in Round 3 that season).
* Up to seven players from the Swans’ 2012 premiership side that played in last week’s preliminary final could become dual premiership players: Jarrad McVeigh, Dan Hannebery, Josh Kennedy, Kieren Jack, Luke Parker, Heath Grundy and Nick Smith (note that Sam Reid and Ted Richards were not considered).
* No player from the Western Bulldogs’ preliminary final team last week has ever played in a grand final (Matt Suckling, who was part of Hawthorn’s 2014 and 2015 premiership sides, did not play in the preliminary final due to injury).
The verdict
While the Western Bulldogs will hope to ride all the momentum gained from their last three weeks all the way to the flag, the Sydney Swans will be desperate to atone for their previous appearance in the grand final, which ended in humiliation as they lost to Hawthorn by 63 points despite starting as favourites.
As the saying goes, the Swans have “been there and done that”, with this to be their fifth grand final in the past twelve years. It is this experience alone which will see them start as the prohibitive favourites this Saturday afternoon.
Their chances will first come down to the fitness of several players, with co-captain Jarrad McVeigh, Rising Star winner Callum Mills and defender Aliir Aliir all needing to pass fitness tests this week if they are to take their places in the side.
On the field, the Fab Four (namely Dan Hannebery, Josh Kennedy, Kieren Jack and Luke Parker) will have their work cut out against the likes of Marcus Bontempelli, Easton Wood and Tom Liberatore, among others.
From the Western Bulldogs team that defeated the GWS Giants in the preliminary final last week, not one single player has ever featured in a premiership side, let alone played in a grand final.
That could change if Matt Suckling comes into the side, after the two-time premiership Hawk missed the win over the Giants due to an Achilles injury.
He also missed the Hawks’ 2013 premiership win due to a knee injury.
As this will be uncharted territory for the club, it will remain to be seen whether they can build on the momentum gained from their past three wins, or whether the occasion will get to them.
In the end, the Swans’ experience should win out.
Predictions
Match: Sydney Swans by 25 points.
North Smith Medal: Luke Parker (if the Swans win), Marcus Bontempelli (if the Bulldogs win)
Most goals (Sydney): Lance Franklin
Most goals (Western Bulldogs): Jake Stringer
Most disposals (Sydney): Luke Parker
Most disposals (Western Bulldogs): Marcus Bontempelli
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