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2016 NRL grand final: The Mastermind preview

Melbourne Storm were runaway minor premiers, so where's their reward? (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Roar Guru
27th September, 2016
4
1666 Reads

It all comes down to this. After 200 matches and over 266 hours of football, we are down to the biggest match of the year – and the one that will decide it all – the grand final.

The Melbourne Storm and Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks will do battle on the first Sunday of October, with the former looking to win their third legitimate title and the latter attempting to win their first premiership after half a century in the competition.

Both clubs contested two finals matches to get to where they are now, and both did so in contrasting circumstances.

After finishing as minor premiers, the Storm edged out reigning premiers the North Queensland Cowboys 16-10 before withstanding a late charge from the Canberra Raiders to progress to their seventh grand final.

The Sharks, on the other hand, finished third on the ladder and also edged out the Raiders before producing a strong performance to end the Cowboys’ premiership defence with a 32-20 win at Allianz Stadium.

They were able to beat the Raiders without captain Paul Gallen, who sat out the match due to a back injury, as well as vice-captain Wade Graham who was concussed in the opening minutes of that match.

They then reversed last year’s embarrassing 39-0 semi-final loss to the Cowboys to win through to their fourth grand final overall, first since the 1997 Super League season and first in a unified competition since 1978.

The scenes at full-time were heartening and exciting for long-suffering Sharks supporters, who have not had a lot to cheer about despite the club entering the competition in 1967.

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A premiership win would cap off a massive period of redemption for the club, which won the wooden spoon two years ago after the ASADA scandal saw them implode on and off the field, while a win for the Storm would make up for the loss of the 2009 premiership, which was stripped from them due to salary cap breaches.

The grand final will also pit the two incumbent State of Origin captains up against each other: Queensland captain Cameron Smith and his New South Wales counterpart Paul Gallen.

This, and the fact both clubs share numerous Origin players between them, has led to the decider being dubbed “State of Origin IV”.

Here is your ultimate guide to the 2016 NRL grand final.

Melbourne Storm [1] versus Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks [3]
Sunday, October 2
7:15pm
ANZ Stadium

Last finals meeting: Storm 28-0 at Allianz Stadium, first preliminary final, 2008

This season: Sharks 14-6 at Southern Cross Group Stadium, Round 4; Storm 26-6 at AAMI Park, Round 26.

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Melbourne Storm
Cameron Munster, Suliasi Vunivalu, Will Chambers, Cheyse Blair, Marika Koroibete, Blake Green, Cooper Cronk, Jesse Bromwich, Cameron Smith (c), Jordan McLean, Kevin Proctor, Tohu Harris, Dale Finucane. Interchange: Kenneath Bromwich, Tim Glasby, Christian Welch, Ben Hampton, Young Tonumaipea, Slade Griffin, Matt White, Felise Kaufusi (four to be omitted). Coach: Craig Bellamy.

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
Ben Barba, Sosaia Feki, Jack Bird, Ricky Leutele, Valentine Holmes, James Maloney, Chad Townsend, Andrew Fifita, Michael Ennis, Matt Prior, Luke Lewis, Wade Graham, Paul Gallen (c). Interchange: Gerard Beale, Chris Heighington, Sam Tagataese, Jayson Bukuya, Kurt Capewell, Joseph Paulo (two to be omitted). Coach: Shane Flanagan.

Here we are.

It seems like only yesterday that the season started with many predicting that the North Queensland Cowboys would become the first team since the Brisbane Broncos in 1992-93 to successfully defend the premiership in a unified competition.

There was much hype surrounding the Parramatta Eels, who had the honour of opening the season on a Thursday night against the Brisbane Broncos at home. A salary cap breach uncovered midway through the season would eventually cost them what would have been their first finals berth since 2009.

It also remained to be seen how the Broncos would rebound from their heartbreaking grand final loss to the Cowboys last year, with their premiership drought now extending to beyond a decade.

Fast forward to now and only the Melbourne Storm and Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks are left standing, with the Provan-Summons Trophy to be decided over the course of two hours this Sunday night at ANZ Stadium.

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After their preliminary final loss last year, and the injury-enforced absence of fullback Billy Slater for almost all of this season, many believed that the Storm would slowly fall out of premiership contention.

But if anything, Craig Bellamy’s men continued to show this season why they have been the most consistent team of the past decade (half of which was tainted by the salary cap scandal) and it’s no surprise that they once again find themselves in the biggest match of the year.

The Storm started the season with three straight wins and never lost consecutive matches throughout the year, finishing with a 19-5 record and conceding the least amount of points by any team.

This saw them claim their second minor premiership in the past six seasons.

They defeated the Cowboys 16-10 in their first qualifying final at AAMI Park and then beat the Raiders 14-12, also at home, to progress to their sixth grand final in the past eleven years.

However, they will be shooting for their third legitimate premiership after their 2007 and 2009 titles, as well as the hat-trick of minor premierships won between 2006 and 2008, were stripped due to salary cap breaches.

The Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks, on the other hand, were looking to build on their 2015 season of redemption which saw them finish sixth and lose their semi-final to the Cowboys in Townsville 39-0.

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Shane Flanagan’s men started the season slowly, losing two of their first three matches including a rematch against the Cowboys in Townsville in Round 1, this time by 20-14.

Their season then took a turn for the better when they won their next fifteen matches in succession, a club record, before it was ended by way of an 18-all draw against the Gold Coast Titans in Round 21.

Having led the competition ladder at the time, the Sharks would then lose four of their last five matches, including those to non-finalists the Dragons and Roosters, to drop to third on the ladder by the end of Round 26.

They then suffered a huge blow when captain Paul Gallen, who has led his club with his heart and soul through the good times and the bad, was ruled out of their qualifying final against the Raiders due to a back injury.

But somehow, the club managed to beat the Green Machine in Canberra, as they did in Round 7, to go straight to the preliminary final and boost their chances of winning a long-awaited maiden premiership.

Despite the odds being stacked against them, the Sharks would then defeat the reigning premiers, the Cowboys, 32-20 after leading 32-6 with ten minutes to go.

This has seen them through to their first grand final since the 1997 Super League season, where all of New South Wales will now be behind them as they also attempt to win their maiden title after half a century of existence.

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They are one of three existing clubs (the others being the Gold Coast Titans and New Zealand Warriors) whose trophy cabinets still remain mostly empty, though the Sharks have won two minor premierships, in 1988 and 1999.

Last year, the Cowboys won their maiden title after two decades of existence when they defeated the Brisbane Broncos in the first grand final to be decided in golden point extra time.

Now, it remains to be seen whether the burden of the lack of success will be too much for the Sharks, or whether they can carry on the momentum from their win over the Cowboys all the way to the premiership.

Stats that matter
* This will be the Melbourne Storm’s seventh grand final, and first since 2012, while for the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks this will be their fourth grand final, first since the 1997 Super League season and first in a unified competition since 1978.
* The Storm will be shooting for their third premiership, the Sharks their first. The Storm had won two other titles, in 2007 and 2009, but both were stripped due to salary cap breaches.
* The Sharks’ 50-year premiership drought is currently the longest in the NRL. The Parramatta Eels have the second-longest, with 30 years.
* This will be their second finals meeting, with the previous being in the second preliminary final in 2008. Despite being without suspended captain Cameron Smith on that occasion, the Storm won easily 28-0.
* This will be their first meeting in a grand final; the Sharks’ opponents in their three previous deciders were the Sea Eagles (twice) and Broncos in 1973, 1978 and 1997 respectively.
* The Sharks will be the sixth different opponent the Storm have faced in a grand final.
* This is the first 1 versus 3 grand final since 2006 (when the third-placed Broncos defeated the first-placed Storm).
* This is the first grand final since 2012 (when the Storm defeated the Bulldogs) to pit a New South Wales team against an interstate team, as well as two teams that won their qualifying finals.
* If the Sharks win, they’ll become the third consecutive team to win the premiership after finishing third at the end of the regular season.
* Sharks captain Paul Gallen will be playing in his first grand final; by contrast, his Storm counterpart Cameron Smith will be playing in his fifth.
* This is the first ever grand final to pit the two incumbent State of Origin captains against each other (Smith, Queensland and Gallen, New South Wales).
* From the Sharks side that has been named, only James Maloney (Roosters, 2013), Matt Prior (Dragons, 2010), Luke Lewis (Panthers, 2003) and Chris Heighington (Wests Tigers, 2005) have played in a premiership-winning team.

The verdict
While the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks would love to win their maiden premiership to mark their 50th year in the competition, the Melbourne Storm will start as the prohibitive favourites this Sunday night on the basis of their experience, as well as their consistency throughout the season.

Having filled in for Billy Slater superbly throughout most of the last two seasons while the Maroons fullback was recovering from shoulder surgery, his potential successor, Cameron Munster, will prepare for what is the biggest match of his fledgling rugby league career.

He will come up against the Sharks’ Ben Barba, who has been instrumental towards his club’s run to the grand final and will be playing his first grand final since 2012, when the Bulldogs lost to the Storm 14-4.

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The men from the Shire will also bank on the experience of James Maloney, Matt Prior, Luke Lewis and Chris Heighington, who played in premierships for other clubs, to get them past the more experienced and thus successful Storm side.

They’ll also want to send retiring hooker Michael Ennis out a winner; he will come up against Storm captain Cameron Smith for the second time in a grand final (after doing so while captain of the Bulldogs in 2012).

For the rest of the Sharks squad, this will be uncharted territory for the club but if they can display the form that took them to fifteen straight wins and third place on the ladder in the biggest match of the year, then anything could happen.

In the end, the Storm’s experience should win out.

Predictions
Match: Storm by 16 points.
Clive Churchill Medal: Cameron Smith (if the Storm win), Ben Barba (if the Sharks win)
First try (Storm): Suliasi Vunivalu
First try (Sharks): Valentine Holmes

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