The Swans can be excused for thinking they’re national enemy number one this week.
With everyone rightfully caught up in the hype and fairytale of a potential Western Bulldogs flag, Sydney still deserve to enter Saturday’s finale as favourites.
They’ve been the competition’s benchmark all season, but the Bulldogs pose a challenge John Longmire’s men haven’t figured out in two years, as the Dogs have defeated the Swans by four points in the past two encounters.
How can the Swans overcome an emotion-charged Dogs outfit? Executing these three elements will help Sydney secure their second flag in five years.
» The three keys for a Western Bulldogs grand final victory
Don’t give the Dogs space
The Bulldogs thrive on controlling possession, and did so to perfection in their previous meeting with the Swans, in Round 15.
In that outing, the Dogs racked up 127 forward-half uncontested possessions – the most Sydney has given up this season.
To shut down the Bulldogs, the Swans must do what they do better than any team: limit the Dogs’ space with the footy.
Sydney has allowed just 214.8 uncontested possessions this season, the best rate in the league. Furthermore, the Swans have a +16.3 uncontested possession differential, so not only do they stop their opponent from getting the free footy, Sydney also wins it for themselves.
When you grant the Bulldogs patches of free space, it enables them to lock the ball inside their forward half, their greatest asset.
The Dogs can score proficiently against the Swans using this method, as they booted 13 goals against them in Round 15 – the fourth-highest goal total Sydney conceded this season.
The Swans’ reliable defensive set-up, featuring the dependable Dane Rampe, Nick Smith and Heath Grundy, needs to ensure the Bulldogs aren’t given the forward-half space they were allowed in Round 15.
While Sydney has been the best team in the competition at absorbing opposition pressure, the Bulldogs are a different beast.
If the Swans give the Dogs the space and freedom Geelong had in the preliminary final, where the Cats had 32 more inside 50s, it could be a long day for the Sydney defence.
Match the Bulldogs’ ferocity
It seems almost too simple to say the Swans must match the Dogs’ ferocity, but that is exactly what they must do.
The grand final is going to be vicious. No teams play with more aggression and brutality than the Bulldogs and Swans.
The Dogs haven’t been outhustled throughout their finals campaign. Across their three outings, the Bulldogs have won 89 more contested possessions than their opponent, an astonishing number. It’s impossible to prevent them smashing in at the coalface – you can only hope to match it.
The issue here for Sydney is, they can be beaten around the football.
In the qualifying final against the Giants, the Swans were bullied. GWS had 32 more tackles than Sydney on that day, showing more fight and hunger, providing the Bulldogs with a blueprint to bring down the Swans.
Sydney have the tools to combat the Bulldogs in the middle.
There is no better midfield group in the competition than Josh Kennedy, Kieren Jack, Dan Hannebery, Tom Mitchell, Luke Parker, Isaac Heeney and Jake Lloyd.
The Swans own four of the top ten best-contested possession ball winners in the league – Kennedy, Parker, Hannebery and Mitchell. Furthermore, Kennedy and Parker are two of the top six best clearance winners in the competition, and Sydney also has three of the top 11 tacklers in the AFL – Parker, Mitchell and Jack.
So, the ingredients are there for Longmire – he just has to cook up a plan to ensure the Bulldogs don’t outwork his team. If it doesn’t come to fruition, the demons from Sydney’s earlier GWS defeat will creep back and similar results could follow.
Capitalise on their advantage in the ruck
One way the Swans can help gain an advantage in the middle is using their distinct edge in the ruck.
While the Bulldogs’ primary ruckman, Jordan Roughead, is confident he will play on Saturday, he is still no certainty. He suffered bleeding behind his right eye, after copping a ball to the face in the preliminary final. His vision was lost temporarily and he will be monitored at training this week.
Roughead’s replacement would most likely be Tom Campbell, while Tom Boyd will play a larger role in the ruck. Disgruntled ruckman Will Minson is highly unlikely to be named.
However, if Roughead doesn’t get up, it hurts the Dogs’ chances. While Boyd has played in the ruck this season, it isn’t beneficial to play him there for an entire game, and Campbell hasn’t played senior footy since Round 13.
Swans duo Sam Naismith and Kurt Tippett must exploit this advantage.
Naismith has given Sydney something they haven’t had in years – a traditional ruckman who can feed the ball down the throats of the likes of Kennedy, Parker and Hannebery. When the Swans’ midfield is granted first use of the footy, it’s a dangerous proposition for the opposition.
Tippett has rejuvenated his career this season with a move into the middle.
Often regarded as an imperfect fit next to Lance Franklin in the forward line, Tippett has found a new niche in the ruck. He has become a force in the middle thanks to his combination of athleticism and intelligence, and he is still able to push forward and kick a goal when needed.
This grand final doesn’t provide many distinct advantages for either side. Both the Swans and Dogs are so evenly matched, it’ll be decided on execution, rather than personnel.
In the ruck, however, Sydney needs to make good use of their upper hand.
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