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The indomitable spirit of the Western Bulldogs has served this finals series well, but all that is coming to an end on Saturday, when they will be dogs to the slaughter against the Sydney Swans.
Assessing this match is a simple equation, given the Swans are better in all three areas of the ground.
They have a better midfield, a better forward-line, and a better defence.
If you had to pick a starting six midfield between the two sides, including rucks, on-ballers and wings, the Dogs would supply Marcus Bontempelli, while Sydney would have Kurt Tippett, Josh Kennedy, Daniel Hannebery, Luke Parker and Tom Mitchell.
The Swans’ midfield at the top end is beyond compare, and they have players like All Australian Kieren Jack and consistent defensive-minded Jake Lloyd in reserve, with splashes of Isaac Heeney brilliance and Jarrad McVeigh composure sprinkled in.
Up forward, the Swans were one of only four sides to average over 100 points per game across the home-and-away rounds, and have proven to have the third-most potent offence across the season. Meanwhile, the Dogs were ranked 12th in points for.
Sydney have six players to top 20 goals for the year – Lance Franklin (80), Tom Papley (29), Isaac Heeney (28), Gary Rohan (24), Ben McGlynn (24), and Luke Parker (24) – plus another seven players to have hit the teens. While Franklin is the main cog in the forward machine, they have multiple avenues to goal, and plenty of class to finish their work from further afield.
Speaking of Buddy, boy does he enjoy playing this weekend’s opponents.
Earlier this year, Franklin collected 21 disposals, had ten marks and kicked five goals against the Dogs, picking up three Brownlow votes for his trouble.
In fact, he has polled Brownlow votes in four of his last five matches against the Bulldogs, and since 2010 has averaged almost 18 disposals and four goals a game against them.
Who is going to stand Franklin? The geriatric Dale Morris? The limited Joel Hamling? The immobile Fletcher Roberts? Easton Wood is far too valuable to be given the task. Buddy is going to have a field day, and Norm Smith medalists don’t come any easier to predict than this.
In defence, the Swans proved to be the stingiest backline since Ross Lyon’s St Kilda in 2009.
Dane Rampe was the first one picked in the All Australian team, with his perfect blend of resilient one-on-one defence, majestic reading of the play to go third man up, and being one of the most dangerous rebound-50 players in the competition.
Heath Grundy has played his best football for some years, Callum Mills has slotted in with courage and poise, and we know Nick Smith is never beaten.
Yes, the Swans look a little short with no Aliir Aliir, but the Sudanese-born defender has been an inspiration to all, and many of his teammates will want to honour him with their performance. The Dogs have one of the smallest forward-lines in the league, so Rampe, Mills and Jeremy Laidler will using their skill at reading the play to cut off any attacking forays.
Even if all of the above wasn’t enough to ensure a comfortable win for John Longmire and his men, Sydney run onto the MCG with over half the side having experienced playing in a grand final, with almost all of them having done so multiple times.
The Bulldogs have a grand total of zero games of grand final experience.
Sydney are just as hungry as the Dogs, and just as driven. They were the best team across the home-and-away rounds, and in the last two weeks have destroyed and despatched two sides, Adelaide and Geelong, who were widely considered the second and third best teams in the AFL this year.
If you’re ticking boxes as to why Sydney will be winning this game, you’ll have already run out of ink.