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The 2016 NRL grand final is upon us, and that means every man, woman and their dog is split down the middle between the Cronulla Sharks and Melbourne Storm, despite what team they would normally support.
All the wash-up from the NRL grand final:
» LORD: Gallen leads Sharks into history books
» PRICHARD: 13 extra seconds, but the Sharks did it
» Five talking points
» Ten best tweets from the match
» Sharks player ratings
» Storm player ratings
» Match report: Sharks’ wait over
» Re-live the match with our live blog
While the golden pot at the end of the rainbow is the iconic bronze rendition of Norm Provan and Arthur Summons, it’s the hotly contested Clive Churchill Medal that always stands out on grand final day.
The chance for a player to stand up and write themselves into the history books on the biggest day of the year.
So who’s the big name in contention? What do the bookies think? Are there any outside long shots that can surprise us all? Let’s take a look at some of the contenders to wrap the medal around their necks come full time.
Cooper Cronk – $5
Why he will win:
The joint Dally M medalist could become just the third player, and second in a row after Thurston, to win the Churchill and Dally M in the same year.
Cronk is the epitome of consistency and cool under pressure, not to mention he’s been to this stage plenty of times and knows how to perform when it counts. The man is a rugby league machine and has all the tools to pick up his second Churchill medal.
Why he won’t win:
That aforementioned picture of consistency can also be his downfall in the hopes for the medal. While he rarely has a bad game, he isn’t the kind of player that stands out and becomes that hero, he just gets the job done 99 times out of 100. A real workhorse.
Cam Smith – $5.50
Why he will win:
If you think of Cronk, you think of Smith. The veteran has all the old school tools of a crafty tradesman but can blow you out of the park in an instant if you’re not careful.
Despite being key in five grand finals, Smith has never won the award, and technically only one of those grand finals, so he’ll be hungry as ever to put in a huge performance in what could be one of his last seasons in the NRL.
Why he won’t win:
He has a lot of tough competition to contend with and falls into the same consistent workhorse category as Cronk.
Jimmy Maloney – $7.50
Why he will win:
Maloney has set Sutherland alight in his first season with the Sharks on the way to being named the five-eighth of the year. His finals form has been solid in 2016, but there’s still room for improvement, and where better to bring that out that in the decider.
His work in the halves with Chad Townsend has been a killer find for the club and they work off each other with a flowing consistency like few other pairings in the competition.
Keep a keen eye on Maloney come game time.
Why he won’t win:
He has Cronk standing opposite him and a pack full of Storm forwards waiting to bump him around the paddock with late hits galore.
If the Storm fire straight out of the gates and take the early momentum in the game, it’s very hard for a playmaker to wrestle the game back in their side’s favour, especially when you’re competing with someone like Cronk.
Ben Barba – $9
Why he will win:
You never know what you’re going to get with Benjamin Barba, he has that aura of unpredictability that makes him near impossible to shut down as an opposition team.
His burst of speed and flashy ball work mean that he can turn a game on its head in an instant. He’s shadowed a lot of his Dally M-winning form of 2012 this year and carried that through the finals.
Barba is a hot chance for the Churchill medal if the Sharks can get home.
Why he won’t win:
Speaking of his 2012 season. Barba led his side, the Bulldogs at the time, to the grand final that year, but was shut down brilliantly by the opposition and made to watch as his side lost the grand final.
The team he lost to that year was the Melbourne Storm. Craig Bellamy is back again to haunt Barba, and having cut his legs out from underneath him once before, it’s hard not to see why the master coach couldn’t pull off a strategy to do it again.
Paul Gallen – $10
Why he will win:
Big Gal has had a long career, but one that’s been fairly unsuccessful on paper. He’s had a well documented time at Origin level and as a one-club man, he shares the Sharks premiership-less history.
This will be the big man’s first grand final, and at the age of 35, there isn’t a lot of opportunity for something like this to come his way again, so there’re no doubts that he’ll be pumping from the front and putting in the performance of his life.
Gallen is an absolute powerhouse through the middle and he has a way of leading his forwards around the park by example. He knows what needs to be done and he just goes out and does it, this game should be no different.
Why he won’t win:
Paul Gallen doesn’t exactly have the flash and flare of the backs in this list and is, in fact, the only big boppa in here. Just five of the last 16 Churchill medal winners since the turn of the century have been forwards, so he has history against him as well.
Cameron Munster – $21
Why he will win:
Munster has been pushed out to 11th favourite at the moment for the medal, but he will certainly be one of the main contenders for the prized award in among a sea of world class talent.
The young gun has been the beneficiary of Billy Slater’s misfortune over the past two seasons, but the hungry 22-year old has seized his chances with both hands, making the fullback role his own and becoming one of the best No. 1’s in the game.
While he doesn’t have a lot of big game experience, he’s got a mature head on him and has no shortage of talent and work rate across the whole 80 minutes.
Why he won’t win:
That bit of inexperience and youth has the potential to bite him during the game, taking on so much pressure at a young age can be daunting, and while Munster has plenty of talent to overcome this, there’s no way of knowing until he’s on the park.
He has Barba at the other end of the field to deal with and the kicking pressure of Maloney to field, so it could be a tough day at the office for him.
Chad Townsend – $26
Why he will win:
Having made his debut for the Sharks as a 20-year old back in 2011, Townsend spent the next five years floating around NSW Cup and making a to the Warriors before coming back to Cronulla this year.
What was thought to be a promising career gone begging has been revived in 2016 for the Yarrawarrah junior.
Having played every game this year for Cronulla, Townsend has carved a beautiful partnership with Maloney, carrying great form through the back end of the season despite the Sharks late slump, before reviving the side during the finals with his stylish flare for the game.
Why he won’t win:
There was a bit of controversy among fans and the Sharks a couple of weeks ago when Townsend was pulled out of halfback mid-game against the Raiders by coach Shane Flanagan in an effort to get his side back on top.
That’s nothing huge, but it ruffled a few feathers, and a move like that in such a big game can plant seeds of doubt into a young player’s mind, questioning the faith their coach has and their own ability.
Suliasi Vunivalu – $51
Why he will win:
Vunivalu has had one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time, and it can still get better. The 20-year old Fijian didn’t get his debut until Round 7, but boy did he take it with both hands.
He became the first player to score a double in each of his first three games and finished the season as the competition’s leading try-scorer, despite playing fewer games than nearly everyone else.
A premiership win and Clive Churchill medal would be the icing on one of the best cakes you’ve ever seen, but there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be able to do it. If he gets enough ball out on that wing, his name could be going down on the scorer’s sheet more than once.
Why he won’t win:
I’ll ring the same bell that I have with the other young players, and that’s inexperience and big game pressure, being out of your comfort zone.
Vunivalu thrives in open space and when his playmakers execute back in field, so he has to rely on a lot of other factors apart from himself. If he simply doesn’t get the ball, or he’s marked up on and the Storm are forced to go to the opposite wing, he just simply won’t be able to do what he does best.
There’s going to be a lot of great players out on the park come 7:15pm and it’s incredibly hard to find one that will stand out from the pack.
The biggest quality of both sides run to the finals this year has been their knack for unselfish team play, they work so well as a unit and they’ve found success because of it, but that makes picking a winner even harder.
If the whole team is on fire and playing off each other to perfection, how do you pick one that stands out?
Regardless of that, it’s hard to look past Cronk or Smith with their level of experience and endless streams of talent and big game plays. It’s a bit of an anti-climactic decision to pick the favourite, but Cronk has had such a great year and he hasn’t looked like slowing down at all through September.
Cooper Cronk to win the 2016 Clive Churchill Medal
Is Cronk the right pick? Is there a roughie that’s been overlooked? Let us know who you think will win and tell us why in the comments below.
| Player | Odds |
| Cooper Cronk | $5 |
| Cameron Smith | $5.50 |
| James Maloney | $7.50 |
| Ben Barba | $9 |
| Paul Gallen | $10 |
| Michael Ennis | $13 |
| Jesse Bromwich | $15 |
| Wade Graham | $17 |
| Luke Lewis | $17 |
| Andrew Fifita | $17 |
| Cameron Munster | $21 |
| Chad Townsend | $26 |
| Jack Bird | $26 |
| Blake Green | $26 |
| Tohu Harris | $31 |
| Kevin Proctor | $31 |
| Suliasi Vunivalu | $51 |
| Valentine Holmes | $51 |
| Will Chambers | $51 |
| Matt Prior | $67 |
| Jordan McLean | $67 |
| Dale Finucane | $67 |
| Kenny Bromwich | $101 |
| Cheyse Blair | $101 |
| Marika Koroibete | $101 |
| Jason Bukuya | $101 |
| Chris Heighington | $101 |
| Sosaia Feki | $101 |
| Ricky Leutele | $151 |
| Ben Hampton | $151 |
| Gerard Beale | $201 |
| Sam Tagataese | $201 |
| Tim Glasby | $251 |
| Christian Welch | $251 |
| Koby Stevens | $101 |
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