We are right in the thick of the spring carnival now, with racing getting clear air away from the AFL and NRL footy codes for the first time.
Caulfield Guineas day is one of the high points of the spring, with four Group 1’s to be staged, complemented by the last Group 1 of the Sydney carnival.
We’ll look at both the Caulfield Guineas and Thousand Guineas tomorrow, while today we can run our eyes over the Caulfield Stakes, Toorak Handicap and Spring Champion.
The Caulfield Stakes is the headline act, firstly due to the presence of Winx, but also because it has only assembled a field of three.
This is due to connections being much more conservative these days, and unwilling to take on an established champion, but also the fact that there is still very much a dearth of quality middle distance weight-for-age (WFA) gallopers in Australia.
There must also be a definitive link to so many of our Group 1 winning two- and three-year-olds being retired to stud so early, never allowed to develop into WFA horses.
But onto the Caulfield Stakes itself, with Winx, Black Heart Bart and He or She.
Neither Winx nor He or She have ever led a race outright, while Black Heart Bart has done so from time to time across his career, and has shown that he can race forward more than the others. No tactics would surprise here, but it is likely that Black Heart Bart will control the race.
He has two Group 1 WFA victories already this prep, saluting in the Memsie and Underwood, with the second in the Makybe Diva Stakes in between. Under the care of Darren Weir he has had seven Group 1 runs for three wins and four seconds. He has become a true marvel.
As good as Black Heart Bart has proven to be, Winx is another level up.
Winx has now won 11 races in a row, with seven of those being at Group 1 level. The form behind her this prep couldn’t be any more franked either.
Hartnell ran second behind her in the Warwick Stakes, and has since peeled off three stunning victories in a row, so much that people are asking which horse should be favourite over her in the Cox Plate.
Winx won the George Main last start, beating out Hauraki and It’s Somewhat. The former won the Epsom last week, while the latter took out the Craven Plate, both in impressive style.
Winx will sit where she likes and the question remains of whether she will win as she likes. Hauraki made her beat him last time out, and Black Heart Bart may well do the same.
He or She is coming in off two Group 1 WFA placings, running third in the Makybe Diva Stakes and second in the Underwood, both times finishing a couple of lengths behind Black Heart Bart which establishes his level.
He’s never tackled 2000m before either, which is another little query on him, but he’ll add another Group 1 placing to his resume!
Selections: 1. Winx 2. Black Heart Bart 3. He or She
The Toorak Handicap has a long and storied history, and this year sees what looks like a high quality edition, with plenty of varying formlines for punters to assess.
He’s Our Rokkii holds favouritism off the back of four wins in a row – two at Group 3 level in the Sydney autumn, and two open handicaps at Caulfield this prep.
His win last start, by a widening three lengths, was both effortless and dominant, and spoke of a talent that could be a serious Group 1 contender. He should be sitting in the third pair from barrier one, and will take some holding out if he gets the split at the right time.
Bon Aurum holds a prominent place in the market, as the winner of the Rupert Clarke often does in this race, given it is a traditional lead-up.
He won that race well, beating some good horses, but rises four kilograms into this event and is suspect at 1600m. He looks a risk at the price, and it would be a surprise to see him in the finish.
Thames Court was just over a length behind Bon Aurum, should have finished closer if her run wasn’t taken by another horse, and now meets that winner far better at the weights.
She’s proven at the mile, was already looking for this distance last start, is a mare racing in great heart, and has drawn perfectly to have a controlling interest in the race. She looks a bright each-way play at handy double figure odds.
Counterattack and Tivaci also come out of the Rupert Clarke, finishing about a length and a half behind Thames Court, and you couldn’t back either to turn the tables on her. Tivaci is the better credentialled of the two to have an impact.
A number of horses are coming into the Toorak from WFA level.
Awesome Rock won the Dato Tan Chin Nam two starts back, beating Real Love who we saw come out and brain a handy field at Moonee Valley last Friday night. He ran well in the Underwood Stakes too, and was first across the line in the Australia Cup last year, so he is one of the hardest to beat even with 58kgs.
Tosen Stardom hasn’t been seen since the Dato, where he flashed home after being held up and should have finished a lot closer to Awesome Rock. If he’s improved as he should have off that run, then he’s a serious player.
Jacquinot Bay has been a bit of a surprise packet in the spring so far, with the nine-year-old running fourth in both the Makybe Diva Stakes and Underwood Stakes, beating home some very good horses.
He drops down to 55kgs from carrying 59 in those events, where he finished about three lengths from Black Heart Bart both times, and if he brings that form again he’ll be in the finish. He’s outrageous odds at around the $26 mark.
Royal Rapture is another horse at double figure odds whose odds should be shorter. He brings in similar formlines to the favourite He’s Our Rokkii, given he has also put together a string of wins and is coming off strong open handicap wins, where he’s been carrying weight.
Two back he beat Tally, who ran a superb third in the Turnbull Stakes last Sunday, and he will get the run of the race from barrier five. He’s a huge chance.
Miss Rose De Lago won the Lawrence Stakes first-up, flopped in the Dato, but then found her form again with a third in the Stocks Stakes behind Don’t Doubt Mamma, who is providing the right form in mares grade. Miss Rose De Lago can win with a soft run up front, where she’ll likely cross to from a wide draw.
Sydney form must always be respected in the Melbourne spring, which brings Moral Victory and Cosmic Cube into play from the Shannon Stakes, but it’s hard to see either winning. Great Esteem is tough and hardy, and will lead the field along, but doesn’t have the quality to hold out strong opposition.
The race should be run at a better than even tempo, with a number of horses jockeying for box seat positions behind Great Esteem and Miss Rose De Lago. The best ride and best tactics from the right draw may end up winning the race.
Selections: 1. Thames Court 2. Jacquinot Bay 3. Royal Rapture 4. He’s Our Rokkii
The Spring Champion is a race that can sometimes produce a horse to have an impact beyond his three-year-old year, but is more often than not won by something that never does anything again.
Yankee Rose is favourite, as she attempts to be the first filly to win this race. She has been the subject of much speculation and debate given her awkward preparation so far, coupled with the talent she showed in the autumn.
She ran on well from last in the Flight Stakes last week, but couldn’t reel in the leader that controlled the race. Trainer David Vandyke was not perturbed and still has the Cox Plate on the agenda, but she needs to be winning this to go there. Hopefully she does, because the Cox Plate is always that bit more exciting when there’s a three-year-old filly in the race.
The Gloaming Stakes is always the key lead-up to the Spring Champion, and the first seven home from that race, where a blanket covered them, are all here.
The odds discrepancy between them all is surprising, and while you can make a case for any of them, and maybe it’s a lottery, the horse I want to be with out of the Gloaming is Retaliation, so will gladly have something on him at $26.
Retaliation took off early and wide in the Gloaming, doing more work around the long home turn than any runner, and was still there to be beaten at the line. Bred so that 2000m shouldn’t be a problem, if he can get a cosier run into the straight, he will contend.
Selections: 1. Yankee Rose 2. Retaliation 3. Veladoro 4. Swear
Don’t forget to come back tomorrow for our Caulfield Guineas and Thousand Guineas previews!
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