The Caulfield Guineas is one of the hallmark races of the spring, the original classic for three-year-olds over 1600m. Coupled with the Thousand Guineas, as well as two other Group 1 races that we looked at yesterday, it is a marquee day of the Melbourne spring carnival.
The coming together of the Melbourne and Sydney form for the Caulfield Guineas is always an exciting feature.
The Sydney colts are expected to dominate the race, and this is reflected in the market, with the trifecta from the Stan Fox all present, all of which ran in the top five in the Golden Rose.
Impending is the favourite, and his lead-up is just about perfect for the Caulfield Guineas. Placed in the Run to the Rose over 1200m, placed in the Golden Rose over 1400m, and winning the Stan Fox over 1500m. The Golden Rose has proven to be the strongest three-year-old form for a number of years now.
Divine Prophet has been right next to Impending at their last two starts, with Good Standing half a length behind them. Divine Prophet scorched first-up to win the Up and Coming Stakes, but has to tidy up his racing manners to win this, while Good Standing hasn’t won for a while, albeit racing consistently in the best company.
The first seven across the line from the Guineas Prelude at Caulfield two weeks ago are all saddling up, with the winner, Sacred Elixir, the pick of the bunch according to the market and it’s easy to see why.
The Kiwi was first-up that day while his main rivals were all having the third run of their preparation, he is already a Group 1 winner over 1600m taking out the JJ Atkins in the Queensland winter, and he meets the placegetters from the Prelude 2.5kg’s better at the weights.
Drawn to get a lovely mid-field run, Sacred Elixir looks the pick of the Prelude runners.
That said, there was only a length covering the first five home, which was to take nothing away from So Si Bon in sixth either, beaten less than two lengths and recording some quick sectionals coming home.
Revolving Door stuck on well from the front, Wazzenme caught the eye coming home, as did Seaburge who also gets weight relief. Saracino will also take beating with his anticipated box seat run.
Hey Doc has taken a path through the lesser grades to reach the Guineas, culminating in his Stutt Stakes victory for his third win in a row this campaign. He was never troubled in winning that race, and the Stutt often produces a horse that runs in the top three here. He is a major player.
Land of Plenty and Kaching filled the placings in the Stutt, finishing well from the tail of the field, and one of them could jump into the placings if they improve enough with everything going their way, but they do look up against it as winning chances.
There is no natural leader in the field, albeit with a number of horses that like to camp handy. The Gai Waterhouse colt Evacuation may take up the running, while Good Standing can be prominent if Hugh Bowman decides to kick up from a wide gate. Revolving Door should be up there too. There may not be a hectic pace, so we can expect a race of tactics.
Selections: 1.Impending 2.Sacred Elixir 3.Hey Doc 4.Divine Prophet
The Thousand Guineas is also dominated by the Sydney form, with two fillies from north of the border occupying the first two lines in betting, the only two in single figures.
Foxplay is the short-priced favourite, unbeaten this campaign with victories in the Furious first-up and the Tea Rose second-up. Her Furious win was on a heavy track, which always has question marks attached, and the Tea Rose win was in a blanket finish with half of those getting beaten a long way in the Flight Stakes last week.
Global Glamour won the Flight after finishing sixth in the Tea Rose, which does enhance the form but she did enjoy the perfect front-running ride from Tim Clark. Suspicion lingers that the market is skewed too heavily in favour of the Sydney fillies.
That said, it’s great to see a filly back-up from the Flight into the Thousand Guineas, which doesn’t happen enough. If only the races were a week further apart, and we saw more of it.
Similar to the colts, the first eight home from the Thousand Guineas Prelude are all fronting up, with three and a half lengths covering them all, with a couple of hard-luck stories involved.
Legless Veuve won the race after taking a forward position, and she will be prominent again from a good draw.
Kiwi visitor La Luna Rossa was the strong finisher under 57.5kg’s and will meet the winner 2kgs better for being beaten half a length. Her New Zealand form is strong through Saracino, the winner of the Danehill and a live chance in the Caulfield Guineas, given she beat him in the Group 1 Sires Produce earlier this year, and in fine style too.
Missrock was the notable strong finisher from the race, recording the fastest closing fractions. If she can settle a bit closer and enjoy the step up to the mile, she can figure in the finish.
Whispering Brook is the intriguing runner, unable to last after leading with 58.5kgs in the Prelude, and she’ll relish the chance to meet her Melbourne rivals at level weights for the first time. She finally draws a friendly barrier too, and won’t have to spend much early to either lead or sit right on the speed.
I Am A Star was good in the Prelude and could have finished closer. She beat Leotie first-up in the Quezette and that filly hasn’t lost since. They represent superb each-way value at around the $20 mark. Samara Dancer is another at that price that can run a drum if she gets the breaks.
Sword of Light ran third in the Prelude and has had to carry weight all prep due to attracting penalties for some early wins as a two-year-old. Getting back to set weights will suit her, and she is another value play at big odds. Sebring Dream is also at a big price but looks to have a few things against her, and she can find a weaker race to win.
Harlow Gold comes into the race from a different formline, having mixed it with the boys last start and given them a beating. Three of the horses behind her then ran placings in the UCI Stakes and Stutt Stakes last week, which recommends her form.
This could well turn into a race of genuine tempo, which will suit some of those that can run the closing sectionals, and it looks a value race.
Selections: 1.La Luna Rossa 2.Missrock 3.Leotie 4.Harlow Gold
Around the traps: Dixie Blossoms should take out the Angst Stakes at Randwick. She’s simply racing too well not to get a win this prep, and this is her race.
The same applies for Sheidel down at Caulfield. Group 1 placed last prep, and going plenty good enough in her first two runs to be winning this. She looks a ratings and weights special.
The Schillaci Stakes has attracted a Group 1 quality field, in what is the best edition of the race we’ve seen in a long time. Eight legitimate chances, and if the three-year-old Star Turn doesn’t win, anything could.
Rose’s Roughie: Given I’ve put a $20 shot on top in the Spring Champion, and horses at double figure odds as first selection in the Toorak and Thousand Guineas, there’s not many left!
Maybe Banter is worth a look in the first at Caulfield. The right noises are coming out of the Freedman yard about this colt, and there was some early money for him when the markets came out. Looks a speedy type and should be suited around a turn.
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