I’ve never bet on the overs/unders in an NBA season before, but the buzz the Golden State Warriors have generated for the upcoming season piqued my interest.
Considering the Dubs won the most regular season games in NBA history last season, and then added one of the greatest players of all time, Kevin Durant, there has been talk they will beat their own seriously impressive record of 73-9.
However, the Warriors didn’t win the title last season – squandering a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals to LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. As such, they’ll be a little more circumspect in chasing records this season. (Click to Tweet)
They now know how little such achievements mean if you don’t win the championship, and will instead get their players additional rest, or be more accepting of the odd loss, in the regular season.
With the original overs/unders for the Warriors season set at 70 wins – which, as per my above reasoning, was far too high – I was immediately motivated to place a bet on the unders.
This encouraged me to look at the other odds on offer, and before you knew it, I had an opinion on nearly every single team’s number.
When I say ‘opinion’, I mean a geeky spreadsheet I put together and tweeted out last week.
I'm punting on the overs/unders for every single NBA team. Geeky Excel spreadsheet pic below, and a short reason for the bet. pic.twitter.com/ALglO0safm
— Ryan O'Connell (@RyanOak) October 5, 2016
So did I decide to turn that into a column? You bet your arse I did.
Dallas Mavericks – 40.5
Over
I have extreme faith in coach Rick Carlisle; he just finds a way to win, regardless of the players at his disposal. The Mavs have added some interesting pieces in Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut, and while the former is overrated and overpaid, they both have talent, and Carlisle will coax the most out of them, and their teammates.
Plus, Dirk Nowitzki is Dirk Nowitzki.
Denver Nuggets – 35.5
Over
This is one of those tough ones where the bookies have nailed it, as I expect 35 to 36 wins to be just about spot-on for the Nuggies. I’ll go the overs, because they have a young, talented and underrated squad, who may surprise a few teams and see Denver finish in the high 30s.
Golden State Warriors – 67.5
This figure was originally set at 70, which was far too high.
A recalibrated number of 67.5 does give reason for pause, but I’ll still go the unders, as the Warriors will be motivated this season by winning the championship, not setting more records.
Houston Rockets – 42.5
Over
The Rockets have far too many defensive question marks – James Harden and Ryan Anderson – to be considered a serious championship threat. However, with Harden and Mike D’Antoni, they’ll be an elite offensive squad, and that will be more than enough to secure them at least 43 wins.
Throw in the addition-by-subtraction of Dwight Howard leaving, resulting in a happier Houston lockeroom, and the Rockets will go way over this mark.
Los Angeles Clippers – 54.5
Over
Another tricky one, but the Clippers will win 55 games. Their core of Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and JJ Reddick is about as good as it gets in the NBA, and will be more than enough to get them 50-odd wins.
Their relatively weak supporting cast will probably prevent them from toppling the Warriors though.
Los Angeles Lakers – 25.5
Under
With the Lakers starting a season without Kobe Bryant for the first time since 1996, the keys to the franchise have been handed over to Luke Walton as coach, and young studs D’Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson, Julius Randle and Brandon Ingham. Which means the future has some brightness, but the present will still be plenty of losses this season.
Memphis Grizzlies – 44.5
Over
It’s a massive cop-out to caveat any prediction with ‘as long as they stay healthy’, because you could say that about every single team in the league. However, the Grizzlies over/under is set at 44.5 for that very reason: the bookies don’t think they can stay healthy.
So I’m betting – stupidly – on them surprising everyone, being relatively injury-free, and thus winning 50 games.
Minnesota Timberwolves – 40.5
Overs
I feel quite bullish about this selection, for two reasons: Tom Thibodeau and Karl-Anthony Towns.
‘Thibs’ is one of the best coaches in the league, and his signing should be worth at least five extra wins alone. With KAT and the other young studs (Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine) developing further, 41 wins may even be an underachievement for Minny.
New Orleans Pelicans – 36.5
Unders
I love the drafting of Buddy Hield, and Lance Stephenson may end up being a sneaky-good signing, but the lack of high-quality players really scares me.
Throw in the injury concerns to Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans, and there is no way I could confidently pick this team to win more than 36 games. Even with the presence of the supremely talented Anthony Davis.
OKC Thunder – 44.5
Over
I don’t feel good about this one, at all. Despite the devastating loss of Kevin Durant, the Thunder still have an intriguing and talented roster, led by all-NBA guard Russell Westbrook. I do worry that Rusty will try to make a point this year, and much will depend on whether that point is ‘We can win without KD’ or ‘I’m as good as KD’. If it’s the former, the overs are in play. If it’s the latter, the unders will prevail.
It will be touches of both, so 45 feels just about right.
Phoenix Suns – 27.5
Under
There is plenty of talent here, but it’s a strange mix of players. In all honesty, I have no idea how the Suns will go this season. Their youth and energy may see them pressure teams defensively and sneak a few surprise wins in, or they might be one of the worst teams in the league.
Twenty-five wins is realistic, so it’s the unders for me.
Portland Trailblazers – 45.5
Under
The Blazers overachieved last season, and with that success comes heightened expectations for the upcoming season. Though they have a very deep and talented roster, 46 wins is a couple of games beyond them.
Sacramento Kings – 33.5
Under
This basket case of an organisation never ceases to amaze with their whacky decision-making or general ineptitude. Boogie Cousins is an undoubtedly talented player, but when your team is built around such a loose cannon, I’m not sure you could ever bank on success. 34 wins should be more than achievable for this line-up, but you just know some distraction or disaster is waiting around the corner, and will prevent them from being a good team.
San Antonio Spurs – 57.5
Over
The Spurs went 67-15 last season, and replace a hobbled Tim Duncan with Pau Gasol and David Lee. OK, so those two are nowhere near the defender Timmy still was, but that remains an upgrade.
Plus they still have Gregg Popovich, Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge (with a year in the Spurs system under his belt). 58 wins as a minimum? I can’t put this bet on fast enough.
Utah Jazz – 46.5
Under
Everybody is high on the Jazz this season, and what’s not to like? The team was in the playoff race until the last day of the season last year, and in the off-season have added some fantastic veterans in Joe Johnson, Boris Diaw and George Hill, to join their collection of good young players.
But 47? That seems a stretch too far, they’ll finish closer to 42 or 44 wins.
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