Two days ago I analysed the over/unders for all the teams in the NBA’s Western Conference. Today, it’s the East’s turn.
Considering the Golden State Warriors have dominated the headlines for well over 12 months now, it feels ever so slightly weird to remind everyone that the NBA champion actually resides in the Eastern Conference.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have made the last two NBA Finals, and it would be a legitimate shock for them to not make their third straight appearance. But how many regular season wins will they achieve? What about the rest of the conference?
Atlanta Hawks – 44.5
Over
The Hawks essentially traded Al Horford for Dwight Howard, and Jeff Teague for rookie Taurean Prince, while handing the offense over to Dennis Schroder and/or Jarret Jack. Only Atlanta’s most optimistic – or naive – fans would consider those moves an upgrade, so a decrease in last year’s 48 wins total is expected.
So why do I think the Hawks will win at least 45 games? Mike Budenholzer. I believe Coach Bud has a plan up his sleeve, and those transactions were part of a bigger plan. I’m not sure what, but I’m sure it will work.
Boston Celtics – 51.5
Over
Boston won 48 games last season, and have added Al Horford. They also have a bunch of trade assets in the form of talented players and future draft picks, so adding another star isn’t out of the question either. In short, this team can only improve on last year, so 51.5 seems extremely generous.
Brooklyn Nets – 20.5
Under
There are a couple of players on the roster who are of NBA-starting standard. If that’s the extent of the positive things you can say about a team, you’re in a little bit trouble. Though there have been signs in the pre-season that the Nets may not be as bad as they appear on paper, I think they will be. It’s a horrible roster, let’s be honest.
Charlotte Hornets – 41.5
Over
I like the overs here; I like the overs a lot. This is a good group of players, and though they’ll miss Al Jefferson’s low post scoring more than they think, the return of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist from injury cannot be understated. Quite simply, he makes them a much better basketball team, and the numbers prove it. Charlotte should go way over 42 wins.
Chicago Bulls – 38.5
Under
In the era of spacing and three-point shooting, the Bulls went the other way this off-season, and will start Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade in the backcourt. It was already a slightly strange roster before those moves, but now it’s just downright bizarre. Plus, there is little evidence so far that Fred Hoiberg is an NBA-standard coach. Considering all that, 39 wins feels too high.
Cleveland Cavaliers – 56.5
Over
The danger here is that the defending champs coast in the regular season, in preparation for the only time of year that counts: the playoffs. However, there are plenty of easy victories to be had in the Eastern Conference, and the Cavs have enough talent to win a plethora of games, even if LeBron James isn’t going at 100 per cent, for 100 per cent of the time.
Detroit Pistons – 45.5
Under
I have zero confidence in this bet, and I’m only offering a prediction because I’m doing one for every team. While I rate Stan Van Gundy extremely highly as a coach, this collection of players bemuses me at times, and I have no feel for how good or bad they are. 46 wins does feel a couple of victories too high though.
Indiana Pacers – 45.5
Over
Yet another punt in which I think 45-46 wins is exactly where this team will finish, so it’s a flip of the coin. The Pacers finished with 45 wins last year, but have had a solid off-season, picking up Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young and Al Jefferson. So perhaps, maybe, possibly, conceivably, they go over?
Miami Heat – 35.5
Under
Chris Bosh clearly won’t be playing for the Heat again, which suddenly sees this team lacking a superstar, just two seasons removed from having three of them. Miami is evidently transitioning to a different era, and while there is some nice players here, I’m unconvinced they add up to 36 wins.
Milwaukee Bucks – 37.5
Over
The Bucks won 33 games last year, and I have them making a six game improvement? Am I so blindly patriotic that I believe in Delly (and Thon Maker) that much? Actually, it’s more a belief that The Greek Freak, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jabari Parker will make a ‘leap’ this year, and catapult Milwaukee towards .500.
New York Knicks – 38.5
Under
Unders. Unders. Unders. Seriously, what am I missing here? 39 wins? Are you kidding me? Melo and Porzingis will keep these guys competitive and interesting, but Phil Jackson has put too much faith in Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah, whose best days are so far back in the rear view mirror, they can’t even be seen.
Orlando Magic – 36.5
Under
This team is a mess. The make-up of this roster is all over the shop, and I have no idea what the plan is. There are a number of nice pieces, but they don’t fit together very well. The only reason I don’t consider the unders an absolute lock is that Frank Vogel is one hell of a coach, and might be able to get these misfits close to 35 wins.
Philadelphia 76ers – Betting Suspended
In the wake of Ben Simmons injuring his foot and undergoing surgery – ruling him out for the first three months of the season, minimum – finding the over/under odds for Philly is almost impossible. They were set at 27 before he got hurt, and given the franchise’s new dedication to winning, plus an increase of talent, I’d still have them at about 25 wins, even without Simmons suiting up for the season.
Toronto Raptors – 50.5
Over
Toronto won 56 games last season, but slightly overachieved, and have also lost the services of Bismack Biyombo. I originally tipped the overs, but now think the unders might be a savvy bet. Seeming as I have already tweeted that I think they’ll win 51 games, I’ll stay with it, but I wouldn’t be afraid of betting big on the unders.
Washington Wizards – 42.5
Unders
There is nothing worse than boring, robotic answers to media questions, so I applaud John Wall’s candid admission that he and Bradley Beal don’t get along. However, the spotlight will now be on this pair in every single game, with people looking for signs of friction. It will magnify the tension, and I see no way in which this team doesn’t implode. Unless Beal never plays because he’s hurt anyway, in which case, the team will suck regardless.
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