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The Caulfield Cup is one of the great races on the Australian calendar.
It’s the baby brother to the Melbourne Cup held on the first Tuesday in November, but a brother nevertheless, and thus one of the four time-honoured majors in our racing season.
» 2016 Melbourne Cup: Everything you need to know
» Complete 2016 Melbourne Cup field and nominations
» Melbourne Cup TV, live streaming and radio guide
» Complete and comprehensive 2016 Melbourne Cup raceday schedule
This year’s edition is seen as on the weaker side, and at face value it appears hard to question.
The best credentialled local horses wearing the higher saddlecloths are in questionable form, and there is a lengthy tail of good old-fashioned Cups battlers that would shock if they won.
Jameka is our favourite, and they don’t come much warmer than the $4 that is currently being bet about her. She was a class filly in her three-year-old season, winning an Oaks and placing against the boys in a Guineas and a Derby.
Jameka has had four runs this time in, and has been very good in all of them, getting better each time. She started her campaign by making great ground from the back over shorter distances first- and second-up.
After bolting in the Naturalism Stakes third, defeating Group 1 Sydney Cup winner Gallante, she then ran second in the Turnbull Stakes to a horse in superstar form in Hartnell, with big margins behind her.
The Turnbull Stakes has been the lead-up of four of the last five Aussie-trained Caulfield Cup winners, and Jameka drops 2kgs on her run in that race. She is proven at the distance, proven at the track, and has proven herself tractable in all situations which is a plus jumping from what might be an awkward gate 13.
Her jockey is Nick Hall, renowned as one of the best judges of staying races in the country and winner of this race on Fawkner only three years ago. She is a classy, well-weighted in-form mare, and is clearly the one to beat.
Five other horses come out of the Turnbull Stakes to run in this race, and it’s going to take something special for any of them to turn the tables on Jameka.
Tally finished an outstanding third after racing near the lead on a day when it extremely non-beneficial to do so, and it went down as one of the runs of the meeting. He was only a length behind Jameka in the ATC Derby back in April, and meets her 1.5kgs better for it.
He’ll need some luck from the second-widest barrier, but is a must for multiples, and is a genuine winning chance in his own right, particularly if the favourite strikes bad luck in running.
Preferment was solid in the Turnbull, but still beaten almost seven lengths behind Hartnell and four lengths behind Jameka. Flemington is much more his track than Caulfield is likely to be, and with top weight from a wide gate he looks outmatched.
Tarzino and Our Ivanhowe ran well enough in the Turnbull too, around 8-9 lengths behind the winner, and have drawn friendly marbles here.
Nothing about Tarzino says he’s a coming winner, despite the memory of his dual Group 1 spring. Our Ivanhowe ran third in this race last year, and brings in similar form this time around, albeit running in better races. He has the class, but isn’t well weighted coming out of last start, and has some work to do.
Set Square is the stablemate of Jameka, and has been well beaten by her at their last two meetings. She’s an honest mare herself, and has come up with a horror draw. Her best bet will be to go forward and hope the speed isn’t too frenetic.
The Metropolitan is the other key Australian race, also a Group 1 handicap over 2400m, which provides Sir John Hawkwood who won it, and Sacred Master who ran a closing fourth.
The Metrop hasn’t provided the winner since Tawqueet in 2006, but both of those horses are tough hardy stayers that always run well. Whether they have quite the brilliance to win this sort of race is another question, but they have each-way hopes.
Real Love is another main chance of the local contingent, and beat Sir John Hawkwood into second up in Queensland earlier this year. She won the JRA Cup last start with real authority, and also ran second in the Dato Tan Chin Nam first-up this prep, finishing in front of the likes of Jameka and Set Square.
Real Love is in the Darren Weir stable, and no trainer can keep a horse improving into its prep than he can. With a lovely 5.5kg drop in weight from her last start win, and multiple Caulfield Cup winning Craig Williams aboard, she is a legitimate second favourite.
In terms of the rest of the locals, last week’s Herbert Power Stakes doesn’t look the right lead-up, which sees Big Memory and Pemberley at big odds. Almoonqith is in the wrong form, and Go Dreaming is in the wrong race. The New Zealand Oaks-winning Fanatic might not be the worst $151 shot of all time, and can finish in the front half of the field.
The Internationals have won four Caulfield Cups, including Taufan’s Melody in 1998, All the Good in 2008, Dunaden in 2012 and Admire Rakti in 2014.
What these four horses had in common was exceptional records at 2400m and beyond. Dunaden had won a Melbourne Cup of course, but between them those four horses had won 19 races at a distance of 2400m or greater coming into their Caulfield Cup win. It suggests that you need to be a genuine stayer to be able to come down here and win straight-up without a lead-in. (Click to Tweet)
This year’s internationals have a grand total of one win at 2400m between them, and none beyond that. They are also all very lightly raced, which is not always the best formula for what can be a rough Caulfield Cup.
Exospheric is the horse with that win, over 2400m, and is now trained by Lee Freedman with Damien Oliver on board. This is a combination that won many big races together a decade or two ago, so they’ll be right at home on the big stage.
Exospheric has been racing against better quality horses in Europe than he meets here, with perhaps only a few exceptions, and been running well. If he can bring his best, he looks the right visitor.
Scottish beat Exospheric this time last year, but has been racing in inferior company since, so they are hard to line-up against each other. He doesn’t know how to put in a bad performance, and Kerrin McEvoy is sure not to put a foot wrong in his steer.
Sir Isaac Newton has been racing against the absolute best across the English summer, actually beat Exospheric home two starts back, and in fact meets him slightly better at the weights for it.
There doesn’t look a great deal between Exospheric, Scottish and Sir Isaac Newton, and they have all drawn well, so the best ride and run may decide their fates.
Articus has been the big track whisper from the Werribee compound where the internationals are held, working the house down and ready to deliver. He is the most lightly raced horse in the field and steps up to 2400m for the first time, albeit has placed at 2200m in Germany.
The race could be run at an awkward pace, and if they don’t go hard enough early it could leave Jameka posted out wide from her tricky draw, which will leave Jameka searching for cover.
Selections: 1. Jameka 2. Tally 3. Exospheric 4. Real Love
Around the traps: Highlad in the Caulfield Classic is the best each-way bet all day at around the $8 mark.
Like Tally in the Turnbull Stakes, he was exceptional in the UCI Stakes sticking on for third up on the speed, on a day when every other horse failed badly from that position. If he can get across from barrier 14 without any trouble, he can control the race, and if he is caught, it will only be late, and by only one or two horses.
Rose’s Roughie: Faraway Town is a filly that showed a touch of class in her two-year-old season, running behind the likes of Capitalist, Yankee Rose and Prized Icon. She resumes in the Bryan Crowley Stakes up at Randwick, and looks race-ready off the back of two trials. With some good speed engaged, watch for her to be charging home late on the big track.