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Just two weekends of the National Rugby Championship remain, and one of the four teams in action this weekend will become just the second champion in the competition’s short history.
In NSW Country, Sydney, Perth, and Melbourne, the best four teams of 2016 will fight it out for a shot at the title next Saturday night.
Sometimes teams from below the top shelf sneak into playoffs, and you’ve only got to go back a few months to recall discussion around ‘unworthy’ Super Rugby finals qualifiers. That hasn’t happened this season, happily.
And at least we know there’s a decent chance of an Australian taking the title, too.
The good news is that five Wallabies have indeed been made available for their sides, and though it perhaps is a bit of a bummer that more aren’t coming back, I don’t mind admitting that five is actually more than I expected.
Let’s get into the games.
SATURDAY: NSW Country Eagles v Melbourne Rising; Newcastle No.2 Sportsground, 3:00pm AEDT
I spoke with Country coach Darren Coleman earlier this week, and though he said he had hopes of getting one of Tom Robertson or Tolu Latu, he wasn’t holding his breath on getting both. So it would’ve been a very pleasant exhale when Coleman named both of them, and immediately, the Eagles’ scrum looks more assured.
Their lineout could remain an issue though, and the loss of Ned Hanigan for the rest of the NRC with an ankle injury is significant. Interestingly, Coleman had to concede that the thought of Nick Phipps playing never crossed his mind until I asked him the question.
But that’s a red-hot and unchanged Country backline that will pose regular questions of the Melbourne defence. I saw a stat that week that Dave Horwitz has 14 line break assists for the comp, meaning he puts a bloke through a gap once a half. Incredible. The Eagles also score more broken play tries than any other team.
Melbourne have recalled the cavalry, with Toby Smith, Jack Debreczeni, and ‘Super’ Sefa Naivalu straight back into the XV, and with James Hanson coming off the bench. Curiously, Hanson could end up playing backrow when he comes on, as the Rising have also named Australian Under-20s hooker Jordan Uelese among the reserves. Nic Stirzaker hasn’t made it back though, and that’s a not insignificant loss too.
NSW COUNTRY EAGLES (1-15): Paddy Ryan (c), Tolu Latu, Tom Robertson, Rohan O’Reegan, Tim Buchanan, Sam Figg, Rowan Perry, Sam Ward, Jake Gordon, Andrew Deegan, Alex Newsome, Kyle Godwin, David Horwitz, Reece Robinson, Andrew Kellaway.
Bench: Folau Fainga’a, Jed Gillespie, Sam Needs, Ryan McCauley, Tom Cusack, Mark Baldwin, Tayler Adams, Angus Roberts.
MELBOURNE RISING: Toby Smith, Pat Leafa, Tyrel Lomax, Sam Jeffries, Alex Toolis, Ikapote Tupai, Jordy Reid, Colby Fainga’a, Mick Snowden, Jack Debreczeni, Jonah Placid, Sione Tuipulotu, Tom English (c), Sefa Naivalu, Dom Shipperley.
Bench: James Hanson, Tom Moloney, Tim Metcher, Rob Valetini, Jordan Uelese, Keisuke Yamada, Taiso Silafai-Leaana, Ah-mu Tuimalealiifano.
SUNDAY: Sydney Rays v Perth Spirit; Pittwater Rugby Park, Sydney, 3:00pm AEDT
The Rays have played bracket bingo with us once again this week, and frankly it would’ve been disappointing if Simon Cron went back to a regulation selection. He’s actually excelled himself this week, though, bracketing not two, but four players in jersey no.23. A big fan of the Michael Cheika method, clearly.
Michael Wells had his knee blown off in the Melbourne cyclone last weekend, and will miss the rest of the season, with Michael Smith completing his backrow set with a start now in the no.8 jersey. Scott Fardy was never a consideration, as I understand it. Damien Fitzpatrick and Matt Lucas come straight back into the XV after playing off the bench last week.
Perth welcome Luke Morahan back from Wallabies duty, though Ben McCalman’s shoulder that kept him out last week is obviously still an ongoing thing. The return of Morahan was balanced out, however, with Jonno Lance ruled out with a hamstring complaint, and that’s about as significant as losses get at this time of year. Ian Prior will start at 10 after playing the best part of an hour there last week. Winger Semisi Masirewa will make his first start of the season, while the Perth ‘pigs’ are unchanged from last week.
SYDNEY RAYS: Ezra Luxton, Damien Fitzpatrick, Angus Ta’avao, Connor Vest, James Brown, Jack Dempsey, Chris Alcock, Michael Smith, Matt Lucas, Angus Sinclair, Harry Jones Irae Simone, Con Foley, Lochie Creagh, Josh Turner/Jonathan Malo.
Bench: James Hilterbrand, Rory O’Connor, Alain Miriallakis/Lawrance Hunting, Adrian Hall, Harry Bergelin, Dewet Roos, Sam Lane, Jonathan Malo/Seb Wileman/Richard Woolf/Dennis Pili-Gaitau.
PERTH SPIRIT: Pek Cowan, Heath Tessman, Jermaine Ainsley, Kieran Stringer, Onehunga Havili, Ross Haylett-Petty, Richard Hardwick, Brynard Stander, Ryan Louwrens, Ian Prior, Semisi Masirewa, Ben Tapuai, Billy Meakes, Marcel Brache, Luke Morahan.
Bench: Anaru Rangi, Laione Mulikihaamea, Shambeckler Vui, Grayson Knapp, Russell Burges, Michael Ruru, AJ Alatimu, Eric Vasukicakau
Fox Sports will broadcast both games this weekend on Fox Sports 2, 3pm AEDT Saturday and Sunday. I’ve not written this phrase at all this season, but do ‘check local guides’ on the day. Stranger things have happened this NRC season, several times, as it happens.
Plus we’ll have live scores and chat for both games right here on The Roar.
NSW COUNTRY 28, SYDNEY 27, PERTH 22, MELBOURNE 16; Canberra 15; Western Sydney 13, Brisbane City 9, Queensland Country 7.
Last week: Brett, Geoff, and The Crowd 3; Paddy 2.
Brett
I had to give some tips earlier in the week, and plumped for Country and the Rays straight off the bat; now that I’ve seen teams, my opinion hasn’t changed at all.
The all-Tahs-two-thirds-Wallabies front row significantly improves the Eagles’ set piece, and their attach is good enough to make even more hay off the back of that. Rowan Perry v Jordy Reid will be a stonking battle, while the two centre pairings facing off will be entertaining, too. The Eagles are just in better form, for mine, and I reckon they get up by at least two tries, maybe a conversion as well.
The Rays just look to have a bit much class across the park for Perth, though how Morahan combines with Prior and the Ben Tapuai-Billy Meakes pairing will be crucial. And actually, there’s another centre pairing battle worth watching, because Irae Simone and Con Foley have been wonderful for the Rays too.
Perth have a really good defence, but the Rays’ is just a bit better, and I reckon that wins out. Rays by 16.
Geoff
“First things first; I may be at the bottom of this NRC tipping ladder but please note that I won The Rugby Championship tipping comp, ahead of B. McKay (albeit as part of The Crowd).”
Brett’s note: Yeah, you and 599 of your mates!
“Tolu Latu is a great inclusion for NSW Country, and they are at home, but a little like Aaron Smith, sometimes fallible human beings let the heart and other parts of the body overrule the brain, hence it’s the Rising to take out the first semi in an upset! Sefa Naivalu is fresh from a Test debut where he didn’t touch the ball, Jack Debreczeni is also back, so the Melbourne backs will be extra hungry for some try scoring work.
“No knock on Country who are deserved Minor Premiers, but who will also miss the energetic Ned Hanigan.
“Perth’s Jonno Lance is close to being my standout player of the NRC; his omission due to injury tips the second semi towards the Sydney Rays, whose captain Matt Lucas will be hoping for kinder conditions than last week, where a couple of his passes got blown 10m behind the intended receiver.”
Paddy
“Two?!? Did I really tip Queensland Country last week? Well I’ll be damned…
“Semi-final time! Things are starting to look very fun in the NRC all of a sudden.
“You have those two NSW giants taking on interstate challengers, a welcome change to Brisbane City mincing the last two seasons.
“So I’m taking NSW, despite my tipping loyalty to Rising and Spirit this year. Both NSW teams please!”
The summary
Now over to you guys…
Make your selection for the National Rugby Championship semi-finals below, and we’ll collate all the votes and publish the results before kick-off Saturday.