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This has been a big trade period for Hawthorn’s list management.
Most of the club’s supporters are in shock over its trading policy. Many believe the now traded Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis are still high-quality players who contribute significantly, as evidenced by the duo’s first and second rankings in Hawthorn’s best and fairest award.
Many are concerned draft picks in rounds three and four do not adequately compensate Hawthorn for the loss of the pair.
And finally, some fear that the legacy of the players as one-club champions will be diminished and that Hawthorn’s culture will be negatively impacted.
These are valid points if Hawthorn is judged in the short-term.
Yet, in the long-run, there are many wins in Hawthorn’s aggressive trading policy.
Hawthorn gains an opportunity for other players to finally get a chance for continuity and experience.
To highlight this, let’s compare the careers of Jordan Lewis and Jonathan O’Rourke. After being drafted with pick seven in 2004, Jordan Lewis played 83 games between 2005 and 2008, increasing his average number of disposals from 16.2 in 2005 to 25.1 in 2008, a season culminating in a memorable grand final win against Geelong.
In contrast, after being drafted with pick two in 2012, Jonathan O’Rourke has played 18 games between 2013 and 2016. Since arriving at Hawthorn in the 2014 trade period, he has played only nine games across two seasons. He has increased his average disposals from seven in 2012 to 14.7 in 2016.
While this is a simplistic comparison which assumes Jordan Lewis and Jonathan O’Rourke are of equal ability, it does show the experience gap between the two players.
Experience is critical to a player being able to compete at the highest level. Malcolm Gladwell’s Outliers provides a fulsome discussion on the merits of experience and competing against the best. Under this theory, champions have to be lost in order for new champions to emerge.
Jonathan O’Rourke will only be 23-years-old for the 2017 season.
Notwithstanding the eye-catching headlines, Hawthorn is recycling its list gradually, thereby attempting to remain competitive. Prior to the current trading period, Hawthorn had six players over the age of 30 for the 2017 season.
Much like David Hale and Brian Lake post-2015, this time, Jordan Lewis and Sam Mitchell have been tapped on the shoulder.
Again, to provide an overly simplistic analysis, in a team of 22 players, it makes sense to have three separate layers of experience. Under this idea, roughly one-third of the team would possess greater experience, having played 200 or more games, one-third would feature the team’s next leaders, having played between 100 and 200 games, and one-third would be made up of younger players.
Going into the 2017 season, Hawthorn is well placed to compete for the top eight.
The Hawks still have experience and leadership in Luke Hodge, Shaun Burgoyne, Josh Gibson, and Jarryd Roughead. They still have their next leaders in Isaac Smith and Cyril Rioli. And they still have young players in Jack Gunston, Liam Shiels, Tom Mitchell, and possibly Jaeger O’Meara.
To remain competitive over a long period with equalisation measures such as the draft in place, a team must excel in other areas, such as list management, managing injuries, training practices, and facilities.
There is little value in following the herd, because in doing this, by definition, a team would win the competition every 17 years if equalisation measures worked perfectly.
Hawthorn’s aggressive trade policy in this light is different, as it contravenes norms surrounding the one-club player idea – and it could potentially be a masterstroke.
Hawthorn arguably may be less competitive in season 2017.
Yet who is to say this won’t be the beginning of a platform for the Hawks to be competing in grand finals by 2020?
By then, fans may once again believe in the happy team at Hawthorn.
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