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When the final whistle sounds on Saturday, and most likely the All Blacks celebrate yet another victory at Fortress Eden, attention will shift for the Wallabies to the Spring tour up north and a critical series of games.
Win them all and the 2016 season will be seen as a tough one but a good one. Win all of them apart from the final game against England and the year can be regarded as okay but not good enough.
Lose more than one game up in the cold north and Santa will be adding some Wallaby names to his naughty list ahead of Christmas!
So what are the keys to a successful journey north?
Set piece
Throughout 2016 the Wallaby scrum has functioned pretty well. Yes, there have been weak moments and arguably the scrum hasn’t been as good as it was in the Rugby World Cup last year, but overall it’s pretty solid.
The lineout however has let the Aussies down time and again.
On their own throw, opposition have fancied their chances at stealing possession through a combination of wayward throwing (yes, Stephen Moore, we’re looking at you!) and poor jumping. When it’s the opponents’ throw, the threat from the Aussies hasn’t really been there.
The lineout is a critical part of any international team’s game. When in your own half, it needs to be rock solid to allow your 9 or 10 to clear the lines with time. In attack it can be a useful weapon that can suck in plenty of the opposition forwards and give your backs more space to attack with. If you can get the rolling maul working for you as well, then you can often draw penalties that give you the opportunity for points or piling on more attacking pressure with a well-placed kick for touch.
The northern hemisphere sides usually stand up well in the set-piece battle, and will be looking to target the Aussie throw as much as possible. If the hooker and second row can gain dominance that will fix a real weakness.
Control
One skill the Aussies have lacked this year has been an ability to control a game. Even in the games they’ve won over South Africa and Argentina, there hasn’t been that ruthless control that the top teams have.
A lot of this control comes from a solid set piece and then a 9 and 10 who calmly direct their team around the field, making sure they are playing the game where and how they want.
Even with Will Genia in good form over the past few matches, there hasn’t been that cool look of a team in control. Things seem a bit rushed and a bit plan-less, and you often feel that the opposition could easily get themselves back into the contest.
The game against Argentina in London was a good example – the Australians should have killed that game off much earlier, but they got sucked into the game style the Argentinians wanted to play and allowed them to get back into the match. A wiser side would have realised a period of 10 to 15 minutes of complete control of the ball would sap their opponents’ momentum.
They should have kept the ball tight for a while and forced the Pumas to spend some time tackling and getting frustrated without the ball in their hands. Whether it led to scoring or not isn’t really the point. The Aussies just needed to identify that what they needed was possession and control.
There has long been debate about whether Quade Cooper is really the man who can control a game in the way Dan Carter would. He can attack in ways few others can and his kicking is coming along well, but has he got that wisdom yet, the game smarts, to control a game and lead his team?
We need to see that this coming tour.
Cooper and Foley
When England started using Owen Farrell at 12 I was dead against it – as a former 12 myself I was insulted at the idea that a non-12 could just start playing there at the top level and get it right. Was there really no specialist inside centre in England who could out play a 10 in the 12 shirt?
But I have been impressed with the way that George Ford and Farrell have made it work.
Bernard Foley and Cooper have not impressed yet as a combination and unless something changes, the experiment should be ended. Yes Foley can kick for goal and has been kicking well recently, but that can’t be a strong enough reason to keep him at 12.
The idea of having two playmakers is attractive, but there are big question marks over whether Foley really is a playmaker at the top level. Cooper has arguably been playing better at 10 then Foley was earlier in the season, so the Waratahs man will be squeezed out unless he steps up.
Stephen Moore
Simply put, he needs to bow out from international rugby at the end of this tour.
His performances this year, both as hooker and captain, show that he’s just not up to it any longer. Not only is he failing to make an impact, he’s making too many mistakes, especially at the lineout.
Rumours of him not being liked by refs are more about selling newspapers than actual reality, but he is definitely not leading his men well enough.
He’s been a great servant to Aussie rugby and should be remembered as a fearsome competitor who was one of the world’s best in his day. However this is no longer his day.
Even if he has a sensational Spring Tour, he should still retire. I hope he does get to bow out on a high.
Israel Folau
Izzy has gone from being Australia’s most exciting attacking weapon into a Halloween toy dagger – looks good but won’t do the job. Hopefully this is just a patch of poor form, but it needs to end soon.
In 2016, the Aussies have struggled to get the best out of Folau’s talents and he’s been found out in defence a few times – not so much missing tackles as mis-reading plays, so he’s nowhere near at the crucial moment to even attempt a tackle.
There’s talk of moving him to 13 but with Samu Kerevi’s performance against Argentina that is not going to happen. Putting him on the wing is another option, but that will probably mean he finds it harder to get his hands on the ball, and he needs his hands on the ball more.
With Cooper’s great ability to put players in space with his gorgeous passing, the northern hemisphere coaches should be fearing a Folau-Cooper combination, but at the moment it’s not a concern. This has to change.
I’ve never believed Folau is the best 15 in world rugby. He’s a great runner with the ball, and under the high ball he’s leaps and bounds ahead of everyone else. But he’s not a complete player yet and his weaknesses at fullback mean he is not the world’s best by any means. But he is a great attacking weapon and Michael Cheika needs to develop a strategy that can let him run rampant.
Predictions
While we’re at it we might as well start the tipping. Let me know your thoughts.
Wales vs Australia – Wales by 6
Scotland vs Australia – Australia by 15
France vs Australia – Australia by 12
Ireland vs Australia – Australia by 9
England vs Australia – England win by 10
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.