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Friday and Saturday sure things: Cox Plate Carnival preview

The Cox Plate is just around the corner. (Image: SDP Media via MVRC)
Roar Guru
19th October, 2016
3

One of the great carnivals on the Australian racing calendar is the Cox Plate Carnival at Moonee Valley.

The 2016 edition is upon us, starting on Friday night with the Manikato Stakes (1200m), which is followed on Saturday with a monster ten event program, highlighted by the best two minutes of Australian sport, the Cox Plate (2040m).

I’ll preview the key races across the two programs, starting on Friday night with the Manikato Stakes (1200m).

Pre barrier draw, I would have taken any price for Chautauqua. Now that he has gate one, I have got slightly cold feet, but I am still very happy to be in his corner.

Just forget he went around in the Moir (1000m). We now know that 1000m isn’t his distance, and that was clearly evident because he was off the bit a fair way out and he couldn’t match it with Extreme Choice, but his last 75m and through the line was a terrific pointer for the Manikato.

Gate one is the worry. What does Dunn do? Kick up and hold the back of Buffering, or flop out the back and swoop? Either way, he is on top and clearly.

I think the big threat is Buffering. Trainer Robert Heathcoate said prior to the Moir that he was too soft on the horse leading in and that was the reason he weakened late.

I am expecting him to be much more wound up here, and despite this being a high class Group 1 sprint, he looks the only early speed. I think he can controls the race and if he gets a cheap sectional, he is a tough bugger to get past.

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Had The Quarterback drawn a gate, I’d be strongly considering him to beat Chautauqua. His first up win in the Gilgai (1200m) at Flemington was just superb, which followed some sharp efforts at the trials.

He looks to be in career best form, but the wide gate does mean that Matty Allen will hook back to last and ambush late. He’ll be steaming home. Whether he wins is another matter.

Keen on Chautauqua, ahead of Buffering, The Quarterback and English.

When it comes to the Saturday meeting, the three key races are the last three on the card, starting off with Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m). The give in the track and a return to Victoria, plus the weight scale, leaves me with Who Shot Thebarman. His effort in the Metropolitan (2400m) was very good considering he was back in the ruck and the leaders really steadied up mid race, which didn’t suit this galloper. Only 2kg over the minimum for a Group 1 horse, Bowman remains on and ticks the boxes for me.

I am really interested to see how The Bandit measures up. He was very plain in the Harry White Classic (2400m) before going to the Moe Cup last week where he got well out of his ground yet worked home with purpose late to run close up behind Authoritarian. He’ll love the step up to 2500m, and the noise from the stable all Spring is that he is a genuine Melbourne Cup horse. Needs to win this to have any chance.

The watch horse is the kiwi visitor Pentathlon. He comes through the Bart Cummings (2500m) where he was left exposed into the stiff breeze on the home turn and was left nearer the inside, which wasn’t the spot to be. Wasn’t beaten far and far from disgraced. Should be getting fitter now and had the Godolphin galloper not been in the field, McDonald would be steering this galloper.

Going with Who Shot Thebarman, over The Bandit, Pentathlon and Gallante.

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The showpiece event of Moonee Valley is the Cox Plate (2040m) and it’s built up as a match race between Winx and Hartnell. I’ll be tipping Winx but not backing her. You can read nothing into her Caulfield Stakes (2000m) other than the fact she has come to Victoria and settled in beautifully.

Her work at the Valley since has been first class, she gets the run of the race – but my theory still remains that she is a risk at 2000m. She hasn’t been properly at this trip since the Cox Plate last year where it was handed to her on a platter and she was in the fast lane. The Caulfeild Stakes was an 800m barrier trial. That’s the only box that’s not ticked for me.

One of my bets will be on the three old filly Yankee Rose. I said after her Sires Produce win in April that she is worthy of a bet in the Cox Plate and she comes here off the back of a brilliant triumph in the Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) where she sat back off them and was under pressure before the turn but Yendall got the best out of her and she really attacked the line. I am hoping Yendall takes full advantage of gate one and has her near the speed. That’s the only way she can win.

The one at silly odds is Lucia Valentina. I thought her run in the Underwood (1800m) was very good given she was ridden as if she was ridden in a barrier trial, peeling clear at the 250m and finishing off with real purpose.

She does save her best racing for when she is produced and she is a two time WFA winner at the distance against top class opposition, one of those victories having McEvoy in the saddle. Her hand is forced via the gate, but she’ll be strong late.

Winx on top but no good thing, ahead of Yankee Rose, Lucia Valentina and Hartnell.

The afternoon wraps up with the Vase (2040m), and I am prepared to give Sacred Elixir another chance. You have to forgive him for his failure in the Caulfield Guineas (1600m) given he was a mess in the mounting yard and then pulled hard in the run, which left him with nothing left for the straight.

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Crying out for further, which he gets here and the blinkers are off, with the hope they’ll get him to relax. If he brings his best, he’ll take some beating.

Prized Icon was a little unlucky not to win the Spring Champion (2000m) given he got held up in the early part of the straight before cutting back to the inside, which wasn’t the A ground, and by the time that happened, Yankee Rose was out wide in the better ground and full of momentum. Much better suited here I suspect and the Sydney form has dominated the Melbourne Spring so far.

She is a risk at 2040m, but I’ll include Whispering Brook. She seemingly had her chance in the Thousand Guineas (1600m) but she was still pretty good in defeat behind Global Glamour. I don’t think the sit/sprint scenario suits her, so I think Nick Hall will allow her to roll along in front, and from all reports, her work from last start has been very good.

Going with Sacred Elixir, over Prized Icon, Whispering Brook and So Si Bon.

Best on Friday night is Mihany in the Country Cup. He looks thrown in. As for Saturday and the remainder of the card:

1. Bed Talk
2. Felines
3. Prompt Response
4. Palladian
5. Metaphorical
6. Exocet
7. The United States

Don’t forget to check Twitter @AdamPage1991 for more tips right across the weekend.

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Good luck and happy punting!

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