Racing fans can’t wait for Saturday afternoon at Moonee Valley, when the most eagerly anticipated Cox Plate for 15 years is run, but the Group 1 action starts the night before with the running of the Manikato Stakes for the sprinters.
Chautauqua is currently judged the best sprinter in the world, and his outstanding feats over the last two years have made him the superstar he is. The breathtaking nature of his victories is his trademark, and his appeal lies in the fact that he doesn’t always get to the line first when charging home from the back of the field.
While Black Caviar’s invincibility kept many a rival away in her later years, few shy from taking on Chautauqua because they know his racing pattern always gives you a chance.
Chautauqua’s Group 1 record stands at five wins and five placings from 11 starts, and that vulnerability is what draws us to him, and makes his wins all the more special when he achieves them.
He resumed with a fourth in the Moir Stakes three weeks ago, the first time he had missed a place since May 2014, and the first time he hadn’t won first-up since his 2013 debut.
Is he still the horse he was, or has he not come up this time? Was the 1000m too short as an older horse, or have we witnessed the beginning of the end? These questions will go a long way to being answered tonight.
The three horses that finished in front of Chautauqua in the Moir aren’t in the Manikato, but two of the horses that finished behind him are, Buffering and Lucky Hussler; both were within half a length of Chautauqua on the line, and both will be better suited in this event as well.
Buffering is the grand old campaigner that has taken on Chautauqua, just as he did the likes of Black Caviar, Hay List, Sepoy, Star Witness, Foxwedge, Crystal Lily and more. Many a good sprinter has come and gone while the old boy has remained a constant.
Buffering lines up for his sixth Manikato Stakes, a race that delivered him his first Group 1 win in 2013. The roar of the crowd if he took this out could only be beaten the following day when Winx makes her move on Hartnell.
Lucky Hussler has won almost $2 million in stakes, and is a dual Group 1 winner in his own right, but isn’t a truly top class horse and has been well placed throughout his career to deliver his best results.
The Gilgai Stakes at Flemington is providing a couple of runners, including winner The Quarterback, who claimed the scalp of Chautauqua in the Newmarket earlier this year, albeit in receipt of 6kg’s under handicap conditions.
He’s a good horse that can close in a race, but will he be able to outsprint Chautauqua from the back?
Under the Louvre is another backmarker, and was fifth behind The Quarterback in the Gilgai. He’s been on the plain side in his two runs down the Flemington straight this prep, and will be better suited around a turn. He ran second to Black Heart Bart in the Goodwood earlier this year, before reversing that exacta in the Stradbroke. That’s Winx form right there.
Fell Swoop ran his usual honest race first-up in the Schillaci, where he was no match for the three year old Star Turn, and the case can be made that he’s a better second-up horse than he is resuming, and that 1200m is more up his alley than 1100m was.
He has quality enough to be a Group 1 winner, but still has to get that monkey off his back. With the right run from a good draw, he must be a chance to do so here.
Rebel Dane has been running in these Group 1 sprints at the Valley for years, but can never win them. In the minor placings or just outside them is his usual go, and he’ll need to run well to even achieve those results here.
Japonisme hasn’t fired this spring, and a long three year old season racing in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, often against the best of either his own age or open company, may have taken its toll.
English is another Sydney horse that has disappointed this prep. Following up a fast finishing third to Chautauqua in the TJ Smith with an arrogant win in the All Aged Stakes to close out her autumn campaign, she looked ready to mature into a high quality sprinting four year old.
She’s had her chance to beat Takedown both times, in the Shorts and the Premiere Stakes, but her finishing burst has lacked the required acceleration. The jury is out.
Holler and Capitalist are the x-factor horses in the race.
Holler resumes after a one start England campaign, where he failed to make an impression in the Diamond Jubilee. His Group 1 win came in the Canterbury Stakes over First Seal, but questions linger about his class. He does love the Valley 1200m circuit though, and will be fighting the good fight up on the speed.
And where exactly does the Golden Slipper winner Capitalist fit in? His win in that race has already been franked by Yankee Rose and Flying Artie this season.
His fourth to Star Turn first-up, giving him 4kg’s and beaten three lengths on unsuitable wet ground, ties in more than fairly with a horse like Fell Swoop, who we can then tie into Chautuaqua, English, Buffering, etc.
Capitalist’s third in the Roman Consul last start, behind Russian Revolution and rockstar Astern, also recommends him.
The horse racing game does tend to evolve in patterns, and from what we’re seeing this spring, the sprinting three year olds have something on their older rivals. The presence of Chautauqua gives us a price too.
Selections: 1.Capitalist 2.Chautauqua 3.Fell Swoop 4.Buffering
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