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The 2016-17 NBA season tips off this week, which means it’s time to put my neck on the chopping block and predict whom I think will take home the major honours at the end of the season.
Kevin Durant’s switch from the Oklahoma City Thunder to the Golden State Warriors sent shockwaves around the NBA, and his move impacts the whole league.
In particular, it affects many predictions for the upcoming season, for which we’ll start with the only one that really matters: who is going to be the champion?
Here are Ryan’s predictions for the 2015-16 NBA season.
NBA Champion
It’s pretty hard to go past the Golden State Warriors here.
In Steph Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson, they’ll field arguably the three best shooters in the NBA. The space and freedom that trio will afford the Dubs on offense should make them borderline unstoppable. Combine that with the team’s unselfishness, the motivation to atone for last season’s disappointing choke, and KD’s desire to get his first ring, and the Warriors thoroughly deserve to be the favourites.
So why look elsewhere? Because they probably will win, and it’s boring and predictable to choose them.
So instead I’ll pick the San Antonio Spurs, who are suddenly flying under the radar, despite winning 67 games last season. 67!
San Antonio will undoubtedly miss Tim Duncan, especially on defence. Likewise, I think the Spurs will feel the absence of Boris Diaw’s versatility and experience more than they think.
However, new additions Pau Gasol and David Lee are smart players who should enjoy playing in the Spurs system, and they join a roster that is already stacked with talent.
Gregg Popovich is the best coach in the league. Kawhi Leonard is the best defender in the league. LaMarcus Aldridge is one of the best offensive players in the league.
In summary, the Spurs are great, and while a Warriors versus Cavs NBA Finals series for the third straight year is very much expected, one should never sleep on San Antonio.
MVP
Between them, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant have won the last three MVP awards, with Curry going back-to-back over the last two seasons. They now find themselves on the same team, and there is a growing belief that they will steal votes off each other, ensuring neither of them wins the NBA’s highest individual award this season.
Combined with the idea that the Warriors will rest their stars more this season, it means we may have a new MVP crowned this year.
Most pundits think that Russell Westbrook will put up crazy numbers this season, now that the Thunder are unequivocally his team, and I tend to agree. Yet I don’t think Oklahoma City will win enough games for him to earn the award.
Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Paul George, Chris Paul and Karl-Anthony Towns have all had their names bandied about in the pre-season as potential winners, but I think we might be over-thinking it a touch.
LeBron James confirmed his status as the best player on the planet by vanquishing the Warriors last season, and I think he’ll win his fifth MVP award this season, provided he doesn’t take any time off.
Defensive Player of the Year
I pick Kawhi Leonard every year because he’s the best defender in the NBA, with daylight second. He’s won the last two DPOY awards and I see no reason whatsoever to change this pick.
At just 25 years of age, it’s not crazy to suggest Leonard could win this award for seven – or more – years in a row.
Actually, that is crazy. But it doesn’t mean it won’t happen.
Coach of the Year
This is always a tough prediction, because it’s a hotly contested award with consistently a large number of viable candidates. That, plus the fact Pop could justifiably win it every season.
However, I’m going with Boston’s Brad Stevens.
It would be fair to ask why Golden State’s Steve Kerr or Cleveland’s Ty Lue wouldn’t poll strongly, but there are (bad) reasons why they’ll come up short. There will be some ‘Warriors fatigue’ from voters, which is always a disgraceful way to adjudicate awards, along with the belief that LeBron is the actual coach of the Cavs.
Stevens won’t be a token vote though.
He’s a brilliant tactician and has been the primary reason why the Celtics have over-achieved for two seasons. This year, Boston have more talent for him to play with, and they’ll push for the best record in the East, which should earn him some official recognition for the outstanding coach he is.
Most Improved Player
The name of this award can be a little misleading, because it generally goes to a player who receives more minutes – and therefore opportunities – as opposed to actually improving.
Given that, which player stands to get more playing time this season?
I think the obvious answer is Dennis Schroder, who has been given the keys to the Atlanta Hawks offense, with last year’s starting point guard, Jeff Teague, being traded to Indiana.
To be honest, I’m not sure it was the right move by the Hawks front office, but be that as it may, Schroder will definitely see an increase in his stats, and will therefore be a big chance to take home the silverware.
Though look for the Lakers D’Angelo Russell to give him some serious competition.
Sixth Man of the Year
I picked the Thunder’s Enes Kanter last season, and I’m still filthy that the voters got lazy and simply picked the default option of Jamal Crawford.
Kanter averaged 12.7 points and 8.1 rebounds last season, in just 21 minutes of play. With OKC needing to replace Kevin Durant’s 28.2 points per game, Kanter should get even more touches this season, and make an irresistible case to be named the league’s best bench player.
Rookie of the Year
Buddy Hield can flat-out score, and impressive individual statistics tend to win you this award.
Though it’s always problematic to read too much into pre-season games, Hield did average 17 points per game, and looked very comfortable. Based on that – plus the explosiveness we witnessed from him at the college level – Hield should put up some good numbers.
Though he’ll have his ups and downs like all first-year players do, Hield’s offensive skills should ensure he’s named the 2016/17 NBA Rookie of the Year.