I know who is going to win the Melbourne Cup

Greg Prichard Columnist

By Greg Prichard, Greg Prichard is a Roar Expert

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    Scottish has been ruled out of the 2016 Melbourne Cup. (AAP Image/Joe Castro)

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    UPDATE: So Scottish has been scratched, but I’m sticking by my number 2 selection.

    Big Orange to actually run and get up!

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    An early tip is a good tip, or at least I hope. Here are mine:
    1. Scottish
    1. Big Orange
    2. Hartnell

    Original article:

    After watching the replay of the Caulfield Cup so many times I know the race-caller’s description off by heart, I’ve got the Melbourne Cup winner for you – Scottish.

    A week ahead of time, too. You can thank me later.

    Seriously though, Scottish’s run in that race was phenomenal. I’ve seen all the lead-up races to the big one on the first Tuesday in November and that was the best cup trial.

    Do yourself a favour if you haven’t had a close look yourself yet and check out a replay. It’s hard to believe Scottish was able to run second when you consider the huge amount of work he had to do in the race.

    Scottish was slow out of the barriers and as he tried to make up a little ground down the straight the first time he got squeezed sideways towards the fence, at which point he started throwing his head about.

    His jockey, Kerrin McEvoy, decided the best option from there was to let the horse go forward and Scottish went into the turn out of the straight fives horses wide.

    He had to be kept going to try to get around the field and at about the 1200-metre mark of the 2400-metre event he finally got to the lead and crossed to the fence.

    It was always going to be a big ask for Scottish to go on and win from there. Surely he was going to get worn out and drop back into the ruck at the finish. But, while he didn’t win, only one horse could get past him and that was the favourite, Jameka, who had enjoyed a charmed run by comparison.

    If there’s a worry with Scottish it’s the fact he hasn’t raced over 3200m before and if he wanted to go quicker in the Caulfield Cup will he have trouble settling in the Melbourne Cup.

    Scottish, prospective Melbourne Cup winner.

    Hopefully, his trainer and jockey can manage to guard against that.

    It makes sense that Hartnell is the favourite for the cup and Jameka the second favourite.

    Hartnell has been the outstanding horse of the spring apart from the incredible Winx, who, fortunately for the cup hopes, isn’t a 3200-metre horse.

    Included in Hartnell’s wins was a decisive one over Jameka in the Turnbull Stakes, after which Jameka went on to win the Caulfield Cup.

    Winx blew Hartnell away in just a few strides when they came to grips before the home turn in the WS Cox Plate at Moonee Valley last Saturday, but Hartnell did well to still hang on for second when he could’ve easily faded to finish behind the placegetters.

    But neither Hartnell nor Jameka has a strong grip on the cup and while this year’s edition of the race won’t be among the best we’ve seen in terms of the overall quality of the field, there are a number of genuine chances.

    Exospheric and Almoonqith each finished very strongly for third and fourth respectively in the Caulfield Cup. Their runs said they would be better suited over the longer distance of the Melbourne Cup and the bigger track at Flemington.

    Almandin is owned by Lloyd Williams, who has made an art form of finding potential Melbourne Cup winners to buy. The horse has taken a relatively low-key path towards the big race compared to some of the other runners mentioned here, but has still been very impressive.

    And British horse Big Orange is back as a five-year-old for another crack at the cup after running a splendid fifth last year, when he led. Big Orange will be much better off for that experience and he since has the form on the board in the UK.

    Other chances: Jameka, Almandin, Almoonqith, Exospheric.

    Why wait any longer for a Melbourne Cup tip?

    Greg Prichard
    Greg Prichard

    Greg Prichard has spent all of his working life in the media, from way back when journalists were still using typewriters. He has covered rugby league, football, AFL and various other sports for News Limited and Fairfax newspapers and also worked for magazines, radio and pay television. Twitter: @gregprichard

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    The Crowd Says (50)

    • Roar Guru

      October 25th 2016 @ 9:17am
      Will Sinclair said | October 25th 2016 @ 9:17am | ! Report

      Hmmmm….

      Didn’t settle in the Caulfield Cup, and will face a bigger crowd and bigger field in the Big One.

      Not at all sure he gets two miles… Jameka was going away from him on the line in the Caulfield Cup.

      Not sure about this one, Greg!

    • October 25th 2016 @ 9:50am
      Republican said | October 25th 2016 @ 9:50am | ! Report

      Last year there was not a solitary Australian bred horse in the Cup.
      Are there any this year?

    • October 25th 2016 @ 10:30am
      Aransan said | October 25th 2016 @ 10:30am | ! Report

      One thing we can be sure of is that this will be a genuinely run race that will suit the true stayers. The Lexus winner could be thrown in on weights.

    • October 25th 2016 @ 11:08am
      Scuba said | October 25th 2016 @ 11:08am | ! Report

      A couple of mentions of the Lexus winner in this comment thread. The nominations for that race who remain in the Cup are as follows:

      De Little Engine
      Pentathlon
      Real Love
      Rose of Virginia
      Tally
      The Bandit
      Tom Melbourne

      Real Love and Tally are already in the field. The rest of them are currently 100/1+. I wouldn’t be getting excited about any of them.

      • October 25th 2016 @ 11:44am
        Aransan said | October 25th 2016 @ 11:44am | ! Report

        If one of them wins the Lexus they won’t be 100/1.

        • October 25th 2016 @ 1:11pm
          Scuba said | October 25th 2016 @ 1:11pm | ! Report

          Actually Godolphin has thrown in a late nom for Oceanographer. If he wins he’ll be a chance with no weight. While you’re right that any other winner outside the two already in the field won’t be 100/1, they won’t be winning.

          • October 25th 2016 @ 1:54pm
            Aransan said | October 25th 2016 @ 1:54pm | ! Report

            I like Oceanographer, apparently he had trouble running down hill in the Werribee Cup.

      • October 25th 2016 @ 1:11pm
        bill said | October 25th 2016 @ 1:11pm | ! Report

        pentathalon ran well in the gold cup…

        • October 25th 2016 @ 6:38pm
          Ross said | October 25th 2016 @ 6:38pm | ! Report

          I live in NZ and have seen Pentathlon race here a lot. He’s a fair stayer but I couldn’t have him in the MC.

    • Columnist

      October 25th 2016 @ 1:38pm
      Matt Cleary said | October 25th 2016 @ 1:38pm | ! Report

      I backed Scottish in the C.Cup, Greg, and about halfway through I tore up the ticket. No I didn’t because I bet on it in a computer. Regardless, the horse was gone. Everything old mate the jockey – who was it again…. McEvoy, I think – all that work, tearing around them to lead at, what seemed, all costs and using up all the juice doing that, my little posse that backed him was looking at it and saying as one, what is doing, jockey man? But then it just kept going. And going. And somehow hung on to second. And here we are.

      Don’t know if Scottish now has my seal of approval to win the Melbourne Cup. But it certainly gives one pause.

      Few chances though. Not least the one that ran down McEvoy.

      anyway. good punting.

    • October 25th 2016 @ 4:34pm
      Morgan Payne said | October 25th 2016 @ 4:34pm | ! Report

      Unlikely the horse will even line-up in the race…. Will head to the Emirates Stakes instead: https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/news/australian-racing/melbourne-cup-2016-casualty-list/351743

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