The Roar
The Roar

Advertisement

2016 Derby Day Guide: Race times, preview, predictions, betting odds and how to watch

28th October, 2016
Advertisement
Warrick Farm racing at its finest. (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Editor
28th October, 2016
2
1589 Reads

With the Melbourne Cup just around the corner, Derby Day sits as the final curtain raiser to the race that stops the nation, and a real treat to wet the whistle of racing fans around the country.

Derby Day is the kick starter for the Melbourne Cup carnival at the famed Flemington Racecourse, leading out to the Cup itself, before Oaks Day and Emirates Stakes Day later in the week.

» Melbourne Cup 2016: Your complete guide to the race that stops the nation
» Every Melbourne Cup Day race previewed
» 2016 Melbourne Cup
» Melbourne Cup field
» How to watch the Melbourne Cup on TV and online
» Comprehensive Melbourne Cup Day schedule

A stacked nine-race day at Flemington will include a mammoth four Group 1 races, including the big Victoria Derby.

The Cantala Stakes will serve as the encore to the main Derby, coming in as the final of four Group 1 races in a row throughout the afternoon.

The Myer Classic and Coolmore Stud Stakes round out the main attractions, but there’s still plenty of action across the day.

The Lexus Stakes will be carrying some extra weight behind it as the final call before the 24-horse Melbourne Cup field is finalised and announced.

The winner of the Lexus Stakes will also get a guaranteed spot in the big race come Tuesday if they’re in the order of entry.

Advertisement

With over $4.8 million of prize money on the line, it’s one of the biggest and richest days on the Australian racing calendar.

So without further ado, let’s take a look at how the day will shape up.

Race Order

The day will kick off with the first race at 11:45am (AEDT) with the Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes.

The Lexus Stakes comes in after lunch, with the barriers dropping at 1:40pm to kick off a string of big runs.

It’s four in a row with the Group 1 big guns after that, starting with the Coolmore Stud Stakes and finishing with the Cantala Stakes at 4:35pm.

The main event of the day, the Victoria Derby, will be run at 3:50pm.

Advertisement

The Tab.com.au Stakes will round out the opening day of the Melbourne Cup carnival, starting at 5:20pm.

Time (AEDT) Race Distance Age Rank Purse
11:45 AM The Carbine Club Stakes 1600m 3 yr Group 3 $200,000
12:20 PM Mumm Wakeful Stakes 2000m 3 yr Group 2 $300,000
1:00 PM Sensis Stakes 1100m 4 yr and older Group 3 $200,000
1:40 PM Lexus Stakes 2500m No restriction Group 3 $300,000
2:25 PM Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200m 3 yr Group 1 $500,000
3:05 PM Myer Classic 1600m 3 yr and older Group 1 $500,000
3:50 PM AAMI Victoria Derby 2500m 3 yr Group 1 $1,500,000
4:35 PM Cantala Stakes 1600m No restriction Group 1 $1,000,000
5:20 PM TAB.com.au Stakes 1200m No restriction Group 2 $300,000

How To Watch

If you can’t get to Flemington or a TV, there’s still plenty of options available to catch all the action from Derby Day.

Channel Seven have had free to air racing rights for a while now and will continue to broadcast the Spring Carnival.

They will cover the day in its entirety, kicking off their coverage at 11am right through every race until 5:30pm.

The Racing.com channel is equally your best bet on free TV. They will run their coverage from 11:30am till 6pm with every race.

Advertisement

Racing.com is channel 78 in most areas around the country.

For your pay TV needs, Foxtel has a bevvy of channels in the sports package to cover the day, and pretty much any race that’s ever happened.

If you don’t already have one, a Foxtel subscription will set you back $50 a month including the aforementioned sports package that includes the racing channels.

Sky Racing 1 will be the channel to look for on Derby Day, covering all the races throughout the day.

If you can’t get to a TV screen, The Roar will have a live blog of all four of the main Group 1 races, covering the lead-up, live races and results as they come in.

TAB and Sportsbet customers will also have a live stream on their respective betting sites.

The Carbine Club Stakes

Advertisement

The Favourites
This is a tight one at the top of the field to kick off the day.

Any of Hey Doc, Morton’s Fork and Acatour could all be the favourite for this one.

Hey Doc ran a strong third in his last outing at the Caulfield Guineas earlier in the month, continuing a strong stretch of form that saw three wins in a row before that to solidify himself as a serious contender.

Morton’s Fork has had an impressive career thus far, taking home six place finishes from seven starts, but the colt has never run this distance or anything longer.

The power out of the gate and tendency to control the early pace could position him well for the finish, though, so keep an eye on Morton’s Fork.

Much like Morton’s Fork, Acatour is usually a shorter distance runner but has an impressive five-race career to launch off.

He’s won two of his last three starts, including the Gothic Stakes earlier in the month, and has failed to finish out of the top three only once.

Advertisement

The Smoky
Comin’ Through is another young colt fresh into his career.

He’s had just two starts to his name, but he’s a promising talent and looks the goods to build his track skills across a few good runs and become a real drawcard next season.

A win in his debut run at Warwick Farm, followed by a second-placed finish at Randwick has many punters keeping an eye on him.

The Odds
It’s a real tussle at the top, so much so that the previously mentioned favourites are all sitting on equal footing in the bookies market.

Hey Doc, Morton’s Fork and Acatour share a $4.60 price tag for the win.

Comin’ Through is nestling right in behind at $5.50 for the win and a very handy $2.10 for a place.

Bezel and So You Too come up as outside chances at $8 and $15 respectively.

Advertisement

Prediction
Hey Doc is a tantalising runner and he’s proven his mettle over his past few starts. This is an ideal distance for the three-year-old.

He is carrying the largest weight in the field, but I just think he’ll be too good in the final stretch where his closest rivals like Morton’s Fork might burn out.

1. Hey Doc
2. Acatour
3. Comin’ Through

Mumm Wakeful Stakes

The Favourites
Tiamo Grace is leading the way as the top pick for the Mumm Wakeful Stakes, coming off a strong second place run at Caulfield.

A short four-race career has yielded four place finishes, including a win. She’s proven herself over varying distances as well, which makes her ideal run a tough one to call so early on.

Pretty Punk has two wins from her last three starts and had a ripper run at the Geelong Classic last week, just missing out on second place by a nose.

Advertisement

She’s a strong contender and hard runner and certainly one of the form fillies heading into the race.

Sebring Dream will round out the main bunch of favourites.

She drew badly and had an unlucky run out wide in her last start at the Ethereal Stakes, but ran beautifully through the middle of the race on the longest arc of the field to take a respectable fifth.

The Smoky
Waterloo Sunset is looking the goods to be an outside chance at the finish.

Despite a rough last start where she finished 11th after getting caught in the pack, Waterloo Sunset ran a strong finish last time she came to Flemington, finishing third on the same 1600-metre distance she’ll face on Derby Day.

The Odds
Tiamo Grace sits pretty atop the bookies market at $3.90 for the win, but she has close competition in Pretty Punk and Sebring Dream who sit just back at $5.

Missrock has settled well at $7.50 after some early fluctuation throughout the week, just ahead of Alliterate who has bumped out to $9.

Advertisement

Waterloo Sunset has moved into $14 just behind Bella Sorellastra at $12.

Prediction
It’s hard to go past Tiamo Grace on this one, but Pretty Punk is the pick for mine. Tiamo has had a short career thus far and it’s hard to tell where the trainers are trying to get her.

The distances have been all over the place and it just seems like the filly is still trying to find her feet.

Pretty Punk has been consistent as of late and has all the tools to hold off the field and get the job done.

1. Pretty Punk
2. Tiamo Grace
3. Sebring Dream

Sensis Stakes

The Favourites
The shortest race of the day at just 1100 metres, the Sensis Stakes has the largest field (bar any late scratchings) on Derby Day.

Advertisement

Sheidel has become a short-distance expect over what is now becoming one of the most underrated careers in Australian racing.

The five-year-old has 13 wins from 23 starts and excels at the sprint, meaning this mare is one of the best in the country for this kind of race.

Viddora had a rough ride at the Caulfield Sprint a couple of weeks back, but she’s running with a good weight in the Sensis Stakes and has the favour of a good barrier draw on her side.

On this distance, if she can find some galloping room leading into the final 200 metres, she’ll be very hard to beat.

Wild Rain and Super Cash have a good chance to run the field as well, the former being a very consistent sprinter at this distance.

The Smoky
Savoureux ran well at Tibbie for a place finish in a strong field, but got unlucky at Nivision in her last start and was caught out wide out of the gate.

Six wins across a 21-race career have her sitting in good stead with a decent barrier draw for the race. She’s proven she can hold the sprint at the finish and tends to sit in just behind the lead mid-race, so this distance could suit her if she can find room.

Advertisement

The Odds
Sheidel takes the top spot in the winning market at $4.40, just ahead of Viddora at $7.50 who has been shortening up slightly in the past few days as the favouritism begins to shift.

Wild Rain and Super Cash are sharing $9, with Rule The River the best of the rest having shuffled up and down before settling at $13.

Prediction
This could be a tight head to head between Sheidel and Viddora on the final stretch and it’s a tough one to pick, but Sheidel should get the job done by about half a length.

Watch for Super Cash and Savoureux to bring some late pace to threaten for a place finish.

1. Sheidel
2. Viddora
3. Savoureux

Capitalist wins again

Lexus Stakes

Advertisement

The Favourites
One of the key races for the whole day and certainly one that has an impact on the Melbourne Cup Carnival, a place in the race that stops the nation is up for grabs in the Lexus Stakes.

Oceanographer, Tom Melbourne and De Little Engine are all sitting outside the 24-horse limit for the Cup and are banking on a win here to get them into the big race on Tuesday.

Tom Melbourne is coming off a second place last start at Coongy in which he led the field from an electric start against a strong head wind. He was pipped in the end by half a length but finished well ahead of the rest.

Another run like that and Tom Melbourne could be on his way to the Cup.

Oceanographer is the big gelding coming into this one after a good showing, a blistering final stretch and a third placed finish at the Geelong Cup.

He’s currently four places back in the Melbourne Cup order of entry limit, but the distance should suit the five-year-old and the temptation of Tuesday could bring the best out of both horse and rider.

Real Love has her name in the hat to ruin the party for all the Melbourne Cup hopefuls, having already qualified.

Advertisement

Coming out of a last start placing in the Caulfield Cup earlier in the month, with a win in the JRA Cup prior to that, has her in good stead for the 2500-metre challenge.

Also in the Caulfield Cup a few weeks ago, De Little Engine had less luck among a strong field to come in ninth, but is carrying less weight this time around and has a good record at Flemington.

The Smoky
A nine-year-old veteran in the field, Junoob has more than half a century of races of races under the saddle and a mountain of experience.

A last start win at Randwick has him starting with some solid form behind him, but tiring legs could be his downfall.

Carrying the heaviest weight in the field won’t be an issue and there’s no reason why Junoob can’t come home strong and pull off another big win in a long career.

The Odds
Oceanographer has surged right up to $2.90, jumping ahead of his rivals in the battle for favouritism. Tom Melbourne is coming in at $4.40 but is expected to drop closer to race time as he gets some strong backing from the punters.

Real Love isn’t far behind at $5 and De Little Engine comfortably back at $7.50 for the win.

Advertisement

An understated runner that could fool everyone when the barriers drop, Tally is sliding lower at $11 with Junoob just back a touch further at $14.

Prediction
This one has plenty riding on it and you can bet the jockeys won’t be holding anything back on the track.

Oceanographer looks the goods to me after the Caulfield Cup, but it will be a tight contest on the final stretch.

Tom Melbourne should threaten the lead late but needs to be careful not to get caught on the fence around the final turn.

1. Oceanographer
2. Tom Melbourne
3. Real Love

Coolmore Stud Stakes

The Favourites
The first of four Group 1 races on the trot, the Coolmore Stud Stakes has plenty of talent in a small ten-horse field.

Advertisement

Extreme Choice has all the momentum behind him with four wins from five starts, including the Blue Diamond and a first up Moir Stakes win on his last run.

The three-year-old will be the horse to catch among the field come race time, especially over this distance with a jockey who’s had success onboard the colt.

Astern and Star Turn will be riding him all the way, though, both coming into Derby Day with two wins and a second-place finish in their last three starts.

Astern blew away the field in the Group 1 Golden Rose to win by two and a half lengths to make it five wins in six starts and three in a row, before just losing out by a nose at Randwick in his last start.

Star Turn is in similarly strong form, breaking free in the final hundred metres to win by a convincing two and a half lengths at his last Schillaci Stakes.

It should be noted, though, that all his career wins have come over 1100 metres, and has just one place finish at the 1200-metre distance he’ll be riding on Derby Day.

The Smoky
Not so much a smoky, but more overlooked among a really strong field or top-class sprinters.

Advertisement

Capitalist has enjoyed four wins from seven starts and a consistent rider in 2008 Melbourne Cup winner Blake Shinn.

The three-year-old rode a thriller to take out the Golden Slipper earlier in the year and his last two wins have come from this very distance.

He finished a length behind Astern at the Roman Consul in his last start but has the strength to keep up and stay on par with his competition.

The Odds
Extreme Choice takes favouritism with the bookies into the barriers, sitting at a flat $3 just ahead of Astern at $3.90.

Star Turn isn’t far behind, paying $4.50 for the win with Capitalist nearly doubled back on that at $8.50, though he’s paying a solid $2.45 for a placing which is worth a look.

Flying Artie and Russian Revolution are sharing $12 each for the win, but it will be tough to crack the big guns up the front.

Prediction
It could really be any one of the top three mentioned in the favourites section. This is shaping up to be one of the best races on Derby Day and could steal the show with a field of superb sprinters.

Advertisement

While Extreme Choice is hard to beat, Astern is one to watch on this one despite just losing out in his last start. The performance at the Golden Rose was one of the best of the year from a three-year-old.

Star Turn might have to jump early to give himself room to fade late on tired legs, so a battle for placings with the likes of Capitalist could be thrilling racing.

1. Extreme Choice
2. Astern
3. Capitalist

Myer Classic

The Favourites
There’s plenty of hype around First Seal after a win in her last start at the Tristarc Stakes at Caulfield, coming home strong to take the win at the post by half a head.

A pair of fighting Group 2 wins in her last two starts has Don’t Doubt Mamma shaping up well for a tilt at the win.

Trainer Tony McEvoy has rested her for over a month in preparation for the Melbourne Cup Carnival and those fresh legs should serve her well on a track she’s already scooped up three wins from.

Advertisement

Whispering Brook started the year with four wins in a row and undefeated in a five-race career but has since slipped a touch, if you count two place finishes from her last three starts as slipping up.

She was looking good for a strong result at Moonee Valley last week but couldn’t settle in the barriers and had to be scratched before the jump.

She should be able to bounce back from that convincingly as she carries between 7.5-8kg less than the rest of the field.

Dixie Blossoms is another to keep an eye on coming into the final hundred metres coming off the back of a solid spring campaign and a Group 3 last start win at the same distance.

The Smoky
Heavens Above out in barrier 15 is an underrated threat to the field.

A seventh place last start finish at Randwick was a disappointing affair after getting caught in traffic earlier in the race, but her finishing form on the straight was superb to rise up the standings.

Similarly, in the run before that she absolutely flew down the final stretch after a poor start to finish half a nose behind Myer Classic favourite First Seal.

Advertisement

She’s one of the fastest finishers in the field, she just needs to find that space and not get caught earlier in the run.

The Odds
First Seal leads the way at $4.20 for the win with Whispering Brook the next best in the bookies’ market with $5.50.

Dixie Blossoms has shortened up mid-week to come in third favourite at $6.50, but Don’t Doubt Mamma looms to rise above at $7.50 as she gets plenty of backing closer to the race.

Danish Twist rounds out the single figure runners at $9 to take the Classic.

Euro Angel ($14) and I Am A Star ($17) are just ahead of the strong finishing Heavens Above who is sitting at $18.

Prediction
This is an odd field to pick from. There’s plenty of good runners, but also a lot of unpredictable outside chances that can wreak havoc with the bookies.

I like the look of Don’t Doubt Mamma off the back of a couple of tight wins that showed some real fight and plenty of stamina in the legs to stave off the late charges.

Advertisement

First Seal hasn’t been as outstanding as a favourite normally would in recent form, but you can expect a very enticing run out of the barrier and a good result.

1. Don’t Doubt Mamma
2. Whispering Brook
3. First Seal

AAMI Victoria Derby

The Favourites
Sacred Elixir takes favouritism into the big Victoria Derby, the main event of the day. She comes in as one of the most consistent form runners in the field with three wins from her last four starts, not to mention winning her first Group 1 as a two-year-old.

A win at the Super Vase ahead of Derby Day rivals Morvada, So Si Bon and Prized Icon has her shaping up as the horse to beat when the barriers drop.

Swear is only four races into his career, but a pair of wins and a last start second place has him lining up as a real threat despite tackling a longer distance than usual.

He finished half a length behind Yankee Rose at the Spring Champions Stakes a few weeks back but did break away from Prized Icon late to take some strong form against Derby opposition.

Advertisement

So Si Bon came in third behind Sacred Elixir in the aforementioned Super Vase but is still coming in as a strong contender for the win.

With Cox Plate-winning jockey Hugh Bowman taking the reigns and a solid barrier draw at 11, So Si Bon has the explosive finishing pace to put on a show and ride to a good result.

The Smoky
The king of consistency, Rocketeer has racked up four second-place finishes in a row.

Even though the three-year-old does have a win to his name earlier this year, by four lengths no less, that current run of being the bridesmaid will be motivation enough for trainer Mick Price to drive the best preparation possible into the horse for the Derby.

He’s proven he can run hard and fast when it counts and he has every chance at taking this one out from underneath the favourites in the field.

The Odds
Sacred Elixir is the big short-priced favourite for the Derby, sitting in at a very confident $2.80 for the win, comfortably ahead of the next best in Swear at $7.50.

The only other runner in the 20-horse field in single figures is So Si Bon, who is back at $9.

Advertisement

Prized Icon and Beach Life share $15, just behind Inference at $14.

Rocketeer has been moving all over the shop throughout the week, currently sitting at $16, but expect that to keep moving around as we get closer to race time.

Prediction
Sacred Elixir has been on fire as of late and has proven results against the Derby field.

So Si Bon and Swear should do well to control the pace for the most part, but if they’re slow to react on the Elixir jump towards the final stretch, then they could be fighting over place finishes.

1. Sacred Elixir
2. So Si Bon
3. Rocketeer

Kerrin McEvoy rode Qewy to victory in the Geelong Cup. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Cantala Stakes

Advertisement

The Favourites
The United States, who is funnily enough from Ireland, bounced back incredibly well from illness through September and October to take a confidence-boosting win at the Crystal Mile last weekend.

Taking home the field by a length on the same 1600-metre distance the seven-year-old will be contesting on Derby Day, he’s proven himself a very strong short-distance runner despite traditionally running over 2000 metres throughout his career.

He’s Our Rokkii will be the one to watch in this contest.

Six wins from his last seven starts, including five in a row and three at this distance, He’s Our Rokkii has been one of the standout horses of the year.

Three and a half lengths ahead of the field in the Sheen Group Handicap was followed up with a tighter win in a much stronger field at the Group 1 Toorak Handicap a few weeks ago.

A last-place finish for Palentino at the Epsom Handicap can be forgotten, after the four-year-old looked genuinely lost in his last start and struggled home at the back of the field.

Prior to that, he was just beginning to kick up some form with a fantastic win on this very same track at the very same distance, taking out the Makybe Diva Stakes by a length.

Advertisement

Le Romain finished strong at the Epsom to come in fifth, just a length behind the winner Hauraki. He’s one to keep an eye on from barrier eight.

The Smoky
Voodoo Lad has really flown under the radar in the lead up to this race despite bringing 17 place finishes in a row into the day, including nine victories.

The gelding took home a sensational finish at the Moonga Stakes to win by a length and a half in his last start, and can certainly keep that run of finishes alive.

The Odds
The United States and Palentino occupy the top spots to take out the race, paying $6 and $7.50 respectively for the win.

He’s Our Rokkii is closing in at $8 with Mackintosh just behind at $9.50.

It gets a little crowded from there. Seaburge ($10), Le Romain ($12), Voodoo Lad ($12), Mccreery ($14) and Hopfgarten ($14) are all nestled in together in what is slated to be a bit of a blanket finish.

Prediction
It could go a couple of ways.

Advertisement

He’s Our Rokkii and The United States could dominate the race and blow the field away, or because it’s just such a tight field behind them, it could go anywhere and any number of runners can take the post.

Rokkii has been on my radar for a while now and he’s just in such good form as of late, it’ll be a tough ask to end the winning streak just yet.

The United States has the speed and patience to make this race work, but it should be a fairly tight finish for everyone in the final hundred metres.

1. He’s Our Rokkii
2. The United States
3. Le Romain

TAB.com.au Stakes

The Favourites
The final race of the day.

Counterattack and Southern Legend have battled twice already this year, holding one win each over each other.

Advertisement

Counterattack edged out the gelding by half a length in the Theo Marks Stakes to take second place, bouncing back from a disappointing ride against Southern Legend in The Sebring where the later won the race one and a half lengths ahead of Counterattack, who had to settle for fifth.

Both have had some average runs in their last couple of outings, but they have plenty of experience at this distance and no shortage of wins next to their names.

Keen Array is looking the goods after a pair of wins at Caulfield earlier in the season from his last two starts.

He took out the Italktravel Stakes by half a length over Illustrious Lad, who is also in the field for this race and has an impressive four place finishes from his last four starts.

Ball of Muscle and We’ve Got This pose outside threats, but inconsistency has hurt them throughout the year and they’ll need to put up a big performance to take a win. Don’t count out a place finish, though.

The Smoky
Ocean Embers and Illustrious Lad are worth keeping a keen eye on leading up to the race, both coming in with some good form and healthy results in their past few outings.

A fourth place last-start finish at the Schillaci Stakes was a disappointing lead-up, but three wins from the previous four starts before that has Ocean Embers in top form leading into Derby Day.

Advertisement

The mare has been ridden well at this distance and has a blitzing finishing pace to make up for a tendency to start out slow in the middle of the field.

The Odds
It’s a close three-horse battle at the top of the field and the bookies have been reluctant to split them apart before race day.

Southern Legend has jumped ahead as the favourite, coming in at $4.20 ahead of Keen Array and Counterattack who are both sitting on $5.50.

We’ve Got This rounds out the top runners in single figures, paying $7 for the win as Ocean Embers sits in as the next best at $11.

Ball of Muscle and Illustrious Lad are both currently out at $12.

Prediction
It’s tight at the top, but Keen Array has caught my eye, especially in his last start win at Caulfield. It will certainly be a close race and a tough strategic battle as to when each horse should jump for the finish.

Ocean Embers has impressed also and a place finish is on the cards for him, alongside Southern Legend or possibly a fast finishing Counterattack

Advertisement

1. Keen Array
2. Ocean Embers
3. Southern Legend

close