The Roar
The Roar

Advertisement

Oaks Day: Tips and previews

Almandin coming down the straight. (AAP Image/Joe Castro)
Expert
2nd November, 2016
6
2872 Reads

So, we’re halfway through the Flemington carnival, and we’ve seen some thrilling and high class racing – never moreso than in the Melbourne Cup itself, when Almandin out-toughed and out-stayed Heartbreak City in a driving finish.

And now it’s onto Oaks Day, traditionally for the ladies, or ‘Blokes day’ as it is more colloquially known, given that where the women are, the men are sure to follow.

The overall quality of the racing is the most inferior of the four days at Flemington in Cup week, but the nine race card has still attracted some good fields.

Race 1 – 12.15pm
The three year old fillies and four year old mares start off the day here, taking each other on over 1700m.

The unbeaten Sea The Sparkle creates a great deal of interest for Darren Weir, onto a good track for the first time and up to 1700m at start three. With A Bit Of Dash is back over from Adelaide and ready for a step up in distance now at big odds. Hell or Highwater is always around the mark but has a big weight to lump. Star Patriot looks a value hope at an enormous price.

Mount Omei is well in the market after a strong first-up performance over 1600m, and should strip fitter now. The Waller / Bowman combination must always be included at Flemington.

Whirlpool down as first emergency, looks the horse they all have to beat though, coming off a good run at much higher grade, and proven at black type level last autumn as a three year old. The wide barrier may make things tricky for her, but she should get back and be finishing more powerfully than any other.

Selections: 1.Whirlpool 2.Sea The Sparkle 3.Mount Omei 4.Star Patriot 5.Hell or Highwater

Advertisement

Suggested bet: Quinella – take Whirlpool for first, and the other four selections for second.

Race 2 – 12.55pm
A couple of non-winners and enemies of the punter face-off here, in a tough and open race that goes well beyond each of them – Pilote D’Essai and Data Point have both been beaten favourites at their last three starts, and have run well on the whole, but just can’t find the post.

Pilote D’Essai wasn’t flattering when up to 1700m two starts back, and must run out 1800m here. Data Point appeals dropping back from 2000m, but may have the pattern against him if he races on the speed from a good draw.

Curragh will enjoy Flemington and may have the pattern in his favour running on late. Boom Time might be ready to win, in what would be a fine training performance from the Hayes team. Goathland for the Melbourne Cup winning stable must be considered first-up in Australia, but there has been no money for him in early markets. Cool Chap is always honest and will run well. Chris Waller’s Encosta Line has talent enough for this grade.

Hardern shapes as one who could spring a surprise at odds. Was less than two lengths behind a subsequent Group 1 winner last time he saw this trip, and back on a good track helps.

Selections: 1.Cool Chap 2.Data Point 3.Curragh 4.Hardern

Suggested bet: Cool Chap each-way

Advertisement

Race 3 – 1.35pm
The time honoured grey’s race on Oaks day is always a crowd favourite. The winner is often hard to pick, and a surprise result is never out of the question.

Murt The Flirt looks hardest to beat, coming off a good win last start, and also running Demonstrate to two and a half lengths giving him 2.5kg’s when first-up. That horse has since won twice again, including on Cup day.

Pepperano is in great form up in Queensland, and will be tough to get past in the straight from an on-pace position. The Sydney horses at the top of the weights Rock Forthe Ladies and Onerous have been building nicely for this target race, and always give an honest account of themselves. Fabulonah is lightly race but making an impression in the lesser grades.

Selections: 1.Murt The Flirt 2.Pepperano 3.Fabulonah 4.Rock Forthe Ladies

Suggested bet: Murt The Flirt – win

Race 4 – 2.15pm
This looks an even race over 1600m, between a host of handy gallopers that aren’t quite up to black-type level, but are competitive in Saturday class.

At the top of the weights, Refulgent, Marwood and Mihany all met last start at Moonee Valley, running first, third and seventh respectively, and you can make a case for each of them to better the others from that event, plus take out this race. In what looks a race of moderate speed, the likely leader Mihany might be the value choice.

Advertisement

Grande Rosso and Pay Up Bro ran the quinella at Pakenham three starts back and have been good since. New York beat Grande Rosso earlier this prep, but is an enigmatic galloper that can be hard to catch. He’s one that only the brave should back, but you’re getting 40-1 for your money. Aurum Spirit has been around forever and has claims given he drops 7.5kg’s on his last two runs.

Emoji is tracking through the grades nicely and deserves his chance in a race like this. Polar Vortex has run some good races behind dual Group 1 placed Tally and Group 1 winner He’s Our Rokkii, and if he brings that sort of form, he’ll be hard to hold out.

Selections: 1.Polar Vortex 2.Pay Up Bro 3.Mihany 4.Marwood

Suggested bet: Polar Vortex – each-way

Race 5 – 2.55pm
This 1800m event for the three year olds looks a race of moderate depth, with only three horses in the race having won outside of maiden class.

Exocet is one of those, and she is coming off a Group 2 fourth last start to boot, beaten less than a length, alongside I Am A Star, who won the Group 1 Myer Classic on Derby day, and Sezanne, who has a Group 1 placing behind Global Glamour and Yankee Rose to her credit.

Fillies have a good record overall against the boys in the spring, and on ratings and form, she looks a special, but the short price is there for a reason.

Advertisement

Of the others, Nemrud comes out of a Listed race in Sydney two starts back, and has shown enough to suggest he can be competitive. Anaheim and Righteous Mate won’t be the worst horses in the race. Zoffman can be a player if the speed is on, getting home at Geelong last start against the pattern of the day. Is the drop back to 1800m in his favour? So Poysed and River Goddess are also trifecta hopes.

Selections: 1.Exocet 2.Hessdalen 3.Nemrud 4.River Goddess

Suggested bet: Exocet – win

Race 6 – 3.35pm
This is a high quality 1400m Group 3 race, given you’ll see plenty of worse fields in Group 2 races this season.

Takedown has 59.5kgs to carry, but is a good horse at the top of his game and could well be unbeaten in hot form races this prep. As it is he’s won two and was unlucky last start behind a similarly hot horse. He looks a point or two of overs as people get scared off by the weight.

Clearly Innocent was excellent behind Takedown first-up, meets him 4kg’s better for a three length defeat there, and is unbeaten at 1400m. He knows how to win, and looks to be peaking now.

Rageese was Group 1 placed at two, and ran well in the best company at three, but doesn’t always get races run to his liking. If the speed is on, he’ll be coming from the back, and Flemington looks like a track that should suit. 1400m looks his right distance.

Advertisement

Akavoroun is a player on his best form, which he looks to be in based on his second to Ulmann at Flemington a month ago. This is his pet trip. Federal was very good in that race, and then was up in class and distance last start, so can be forgiven. Barrier one may not be his friend, but he’s honest and talented.

Ninth Legion is perennially underrated but always a threat in this grade of race. A good track, 1400m and second-up are all ticks for him, and he was excellent first-up. Arod creates the most intrigue, a Cox Plate runner last year as an international, he is having his first start being trained in Australia, under the care of Chris Waller.

Selections: 1.Rageese 2.Clearly Innocent 3.Takedown 4.Ninth Legion

Suggested bet: First four – 11, 13 / 1, 2, 4, 7, 9, 11, 13 / 1, 2, 4, 7, 9, 11, 13 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 13

Race 7 – 4.15pm
This 1100m race down the straight has attracted some incredibly smart sprinters racing way below their pay grade at Listed level, but pleasingly adds great depth to the Oaks day card.

Terravista and Flamberge are the proven Group 1 WFA performers, and have been allotted 60.5kg’s accordingly.

Terravista has long held claims as the second best sprinter in the country, and his first-up record is supreme, usually in much better races than this. He’s had his troubles, but if he’s right he’ll take all manner of beating. For all his talent, he’s only won one race for the best part of two years.

Advertisement

Flamberge was poor at his last two starts back in the autumn, and continued in that form first-up at Caulfield. He’s one that you could only take on trust, but you’re getting $19 to do so, which will appeal to many punters.

Hellbent is the even money favourite, after winning like a superstar last start. The horse he flew past and beat into second there, Sheidel, has since won two good races of her own. There looks to be hectic speed in this race, which should play into his hooves.

Redzel is another talented galloper, and he’ll be the tearaway leader, which usually goes one of two ways up the straight – they run their rivals ragged and win comfortably, or they tire and lose their way, weakening right out of it.

The rest are making up the numbers, and you couldn’t entertain them as winning chances. The likes of Shaf, General Truce, Grane, Bullpit, and Golden Spin are trifecta hopes on their best form.

Selections: 1.Hellbent 2.Terravista 3.Redzel 4.General Truce

Suggested bet: Quinella – Hellbent / Terravista

Race 8 – Group 1 Crown Oaks – 5pm
There are very few rules in racing that should dictate a winner, but one of them is a three year old filly running in the Cox Plate and then going on to win the Oaks. It has only happened four times since 1989, but all four fillies won the Oaks.

Advertisement

Yankee Rose is coming off a third placing in the Cox Plate, behind superstar Winx and high quality Hartnell, who just ran third in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. Yankee Rose is already a dual Group 1 winner, of the Sires Produce in the autumn and the Spring Champion Stakes in early October. In that latter race, she beat Prized Icon, who just won the VRC Derby on Saturday. Her form doesn’t get any hotter, and she is all but unbeatable in this race.

Behind Yankee Rose, there look to be five main chances to fill the placings.

Eleonora won the Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield in fine style, with subsequent Wakeful Stakes winner Tiamo Grace unlucky behind her in second. Sebring Dream ran well in both the Ethereal and the Wakeful, as well as the Thousand Guineas. Moqueen was good in the Ethereal after beating the boys at Listed level up in Sydney.

Harlow Gold was alongside Sebring Dream in the Thousand Guineas, and alongside Prized Icon in the AAMI Vase, so her form ties her in. The x-factor horse is Smart As You Think, coming off a win against the older horses. Three starts back in Adelaide, she beat home Morvada, who then ran second in the AAMI Vase, behind Sacred Elixir, but in front of both Prized Icon and Harlow Gold.

Selections: 1.Yankee Rose 2.Harlow Gold 3.Moqueen 4.Smart As You Think

Suggested bet: First four – Yankee Rose to win, and box Harlow Gold, Moqueen, Smart As You Think, Eleonora and Sebring Dream for second, third and fourth.

Race 9 – 5.45pm
A tough race to finish the day, an 1100m sprint for the fillies, a big field, and exactly the type of race that throws up a big odds winner and kicks everyone out of the quaddie.

Advertisement

Spright appears to be the most talented filly in the field, and we have seen the penny drop a bit further for her every time she appears at the races, culminating in an explosive win last start at listed level in Sydney. She has drawn well in a middle wide barrier, and will look to generate the same turn of foot as last start after gaining cover throughout the run.

Kentucky Miss is the filly Spright will have to get past. Three times a winner already this prep, her last three runs have seen her place behind Star Turn followed by two wins, one of which was down the straight. She’s drawn to run along the outside rail where the best ground should be.

Conchita is a fast filly that might be better suited around a bend than up the straight, but she’ll give them something to catch regardless. Super Too and Faith’s Encore look nice value plays given their runs behind Kentucky Miss last time out, albeit in different races.

Hear the Chant is a talent, Twist Tops ran well in good two year old grade and was competitive first-up. Miss Wonderland looks the best of those coming off maiden wins. Selenia isn’t the worst $41 shot you’ll see all day, and The Veal Thing can run a race at 100-1 if feeling adventurous.

Selections: 1.Spright 2.Kentucky Miss 3.Faith’s Encore 4.Miss Wonderland

Suggested bet: Spright – win

close