The best racing Perth has to offer kicks off this Saturday at Ascot with week one of the Masters, highlighted of course by the Railway Stakes (1600m).
While that is happening, the Melbourne Spring properly wraps up with Ballarat Cup Day on Saturday with their stand alone program. I’ll take a look at the key races from both meetings, focusing on Ascot.
I’ll start with the Group 1 – the Railway. Leaning towards Mackintosh but the wide barrier has certainly dented my confidence. His run in the Cantala (1600m) was full of merit I thought given he raced near the speed and did do some work to get there and I thought his effort in defeat was pretty good. Draws the car park but Oliver knows Ascot like the back of his hand and he’ll know what to do from the barrier.
The weighted horse is the favourite Perfect Reflection. She won the traditional lead up, the Lee Steere (1400m), aided by a peach from Pike. He got the mare to relax beautifully off the speed, a genuine one at that, before presenting into the clear at the right time and the mare responded brilliantly. My opinion is that she may have been flattered a touch, but she has upside and is so well weighted.
I can’t believe the price that is on offer for Kawi. He is the best horse in New Zealand by some distance and I’m surprised most have dropped off him after his Lee Steere (1400m) failure, but I thought the run was full of merit given he had to drag the field up to the tearaway leader and by the time he did that, 1-2-3 were sitting behind him and pounced. He won’t be the hunted here. Yes, he is poorly weighted, but he’ll get a suck run off the speed and he is the sole genuine Group l WFA horse in the field.
Going with Mackintosh, just, ahead of Perfect Reflection, Kawi and Scales Of Justice.
The other Group race on the card at Ascot is the WA Guineas. There are no real standouts but it should be quite a competitive race. Again, drawn awkwardly but I am going with Saul’s Special. Loved the way he attacked the line to win the Fairetha (1400m) last time out, sitting off the pace before presenting wide and he savaged the peg with purpose. He’ll have no issue with the mile here. Had he drawn a gate, I’d probably declare him, but despite that, he is still on top.
Get Over It was the real unlucky runner to come from the Fairetha. He looked to have plenty to offer in the straight and was trying to get up inside the leader, but I am just not sure there was quite a full run there to let down properly. I think he’ll be better outside horses and ambushing late, so if that eventuates, he is right in the game and Pike steers.
Lusaha probably lacks the class of stablemate Saul’s Special, but he has some ticker and wants to win, as we saw when he won two back at the midweeks over 1200m before running in the Fairetha where he sat on speed and looked gone on the turn but just kept finding under riding to only go down by around half a length. Looks to map quite well and Craig Williams is booked, and he does have a great record on this race day. Wouldn’t be shocked at all if he turned the tables.
Keen on Saul’s Special though, to beat Get Over It, Lusaha and Ellicazoom.
The Spring Carnival in Melbourne wraps up at Ballarat on Saturday with Ballarat Cup Day. $300,000 Listed feature, run over 2200m, has attracted a strong field, headed by Turnitaround with Rising Romance the highest rated runner assembled. If the track remains to have some cushion in it, I think Cool Chap will take some stopping here. I am prepared to forgive him for his Eclipse failure last Saturday given he may have not handled the rock hard track and the inside was quicksand. He does get a 1.5kg weight swing on Turnitaround and draws a lovely gate for Dan Stackhouse, who knows the horse very well.
The stablemate Nozomi ran an absolute beauty on Stakes Day at Flemington over 2000m. Macca rode him that day and the horse gave his all, only to be beaten by the well backed Little White Cloud. His two starts beyond 2000m have seen him win a Geelong Classic and run third in a Victorian Derby. Looks to be a sense of timing about him and Steve Baster is riding very well at the moment.
If there was to be a blowout, it could be the Country Cups king Golden Oldies, who has won the St Arnaud Cup and Ararat Cup at his past two, both times ridden a treat on speed by Jess Eaton, who makes way for Linda Meech, but the horse, if anything, gains. Senior rider means more strength, Meech is the leading rider in Victoria at the moment and she is the best front running hoop in Australia. This horse will give a stack of cheek if he runs.
But I am with Cool Chap, over Nozomi, Golden Oldies and Puccini.
The other race at Ballarat that looks to have really good depth is the Magic Millions three-year-old and four-year-old Classic (1100m). Been waiting and waiting for Golden Spin to run again and he finally does here after being scratched a couple of times since his eye-catching fresh effort at the Valley behind Another Diamond. Draws well here, so I think he can sit much closer in the run and the form around him from last prep reads very well.
If we got a heavy track, Secret Agenda would be the bet of the year. Experts who follow ratings would probably back that up because she is 17 ratings points higher than Golden Spin yet gets a 2kg weight pull on that horse. Her effort down the straight on Cup Day was good without much luck on a firm track. She’ll get more cushion here at Ballarat, draws well, Callow in fab form… ticks a lot of boxes.
Speedeor is one horse who is poorly weighted but it’s hard to knock his form. Spanked them to win two back at Cranbourne before Nolen gave him a beauty on Cup Day down the straight, sticking nearer the inside of the pack before dashing to the front and then angling to the better ground and won with a bit of authority. Takes on a couple of really promising older horses here, but he does have fresh legs and a lethal turn of foot, so I won’t be ignoring him.
Going with Golden Spin, ahead of Secret Agenda, Speedeor and Oak Door.
Don’t forget to check twitter @AdamPage1991 for more tips right across the weekend.
Good luck and happy punting!
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