There are nine rounds to go in the 2016-17 NBL season but we might as well go back to square one and start again with games becoming harder to predict than the Melbourne Cup and last season’s grand finalists on struggle street.
In what will prove to be an important seven-game Round 10, the last of the long rounds for over a month it could well help to define the second half of the season.
It’s not often in any sporting code you can get to the midway point of any competition and find last season’s grand finalists on the bottom of the ladder, but that is exactly what the NBL has served up.
The New Zealand Breakers though, are arguably in the worst form out of any team in the competition with not even their most optimistic supporter hopeful of a short-term turnaround of form.
Despite one burst where they won a few games to keep themselves within a few matches of the leaders, they have looked atrocious in the last few weeks losing four games in a row to sit bottom of the table.
The Breakers will get the chance to play a pair of games this round though, including the opener at home against the high-flying Brisbane Bullets before they head out onto the road against the Adelaide 36ers.
It’s not normal to be saying games are must-win at this point, but that’s the feel for the Breakers with any more losses potentially seeing them lose contact with the pack.
While the Bullets at this point could afford a loss in their trip across the Tasman, every game is like gold in this competition and you can guarantee they will be up for the fight after showing some impressive recent form.
For the 36ers though, they still sit dangerously close to the botom of the table (as most teams do given the small margins throughout) and will not be willing to drop a game on their home floor.
Watch for Jerome Randle to light up here against a Breakers defence that has been weak at best. With the 36ers defence not being much stronger, this could be one incredibly entertaining match.
For the Perth Wildcats, who took out the championship last season and haven’t missed the finals in 30 years, it’s been a real struggle with captain Damian Martin sitting on the sideline.
Their defence hasn’t been great and apart from Casey Prather they have nothing in attack. Playing five out of their next six on the road, it’s key to build some form here with their only match of the weekend on Friday night against Melbourne United.
United themselves, sitting in sixth place on the table will be aiming for a big statement win on the road in Perth, and then again against the league leading Sydney Kings at Qudos Bank Arena on Sunday.
The Kings find themselves with a couple of tough matches this weekend, that United one headlining. A trip to Cairns is never easy though as they found out in a low-scoring encounter earlier this season and that’s where they will head on Friday night.
The Bullets also have a double header this weekend as they come home from Auckland for a chance to host the in-form Illawarra Hawks who will be keen to bounce back after their loss at home to the Kings on Monday Night.
The round will close out with the Taipans playing their second home game in an important fixture for the ladder and season series against Randle and the 36ers.
Fixtures (times AEDT)
New Zealand Breakers vs Brisbane Bullets at Vector Arena (Thursday 5:30pm)
Cairns Taipans vs Sydney Kings at Cairns Convention Centre (Friday 7:30pm)
Perth Wildcats vs Melbourne United at Perth Arena (Friday 9:30pm)
Adelaide 36ers vs New Zealand Breakers Titanium Security Arena (Saturday 5:30pm)
Brisbane Bullets vs Illawarra Hawks at Brisbane Convention and Exhibition Centre (Saturday 7:30pm)
Sydney Kings vs Melbourne United at Qudos Bank Arena (Sunday 3pm)
Cairns Taipans vs Adelaide 36ers at Cairns Convention Centre (Monday 7:30pm)
My tips
Bullets by 12
Kings by 2
United by 7
36ers by 18
Bullets by 3
Kings by 1 (OT)
Taipans by 4
Lock of the week: Sydney vs Melbourne rivalry to explode at Qudos
It’s not the biggest rivalry in the NBL by any stretch of the imagination, but given their matches so far this season and the fact that Andrew Gaze is coaching Sydney there is no question there is a bit of feeling between the sides.
Of course, their last match in Melbourne stands out as Casper Ware shot a massive three on the buzzer to win United the game and kick-start what was a stuttering season at best.
Back in Sydney, and with a big crowd expected this should be a cracker of a match. The Kings will be aiming to keep their spot at the top of the pile, United trying to get back to where they were predicted to be in the pre-season and plenty of players with points to prove.
The battle between Jason Cadee, Kevin Lisch, Chris Goulding and Casper Ware shapes up as an epic, with sharp-shooting the other of the day, while Brad Newley and Todd Blanchfield will both add plenty of X-Factor to their respective teams.
You aren’t going to want to miss this game.
Big question of the week: Do the 2015-16 grand finalists have anything more to offer?
In short, it’s hard to see where the next victory for either the Perth Wildcats or New Zealand Breakers is coming from.
Starting with Perth, who play Melbourne United this weekend at home before hitting the road for five straight road matches and six out of their next seven away from the Perth Arena their form simply isn’t good enough to think they are going to pick up wins.
No Damian Martin isn’t helping their cause, but they have lost some matches at home, had their biggest ever defeat at the Perth Arena and allowed the Illawarra Hawks to break a 25-game curse.
Things seem to be going from bad to worse for the Wildcats, and if they were to lose a majority of the matches on their upcoming road trip, the final will be gettinng well and truly out of reach.
The only team who have looked worse than the Wildcats in the last few weeks is the Breakers. They are close enough to full strength yet look to have one gear in attack – three point shooting – and no gear in defence.
They look like a team who almost don’t want to be there. Whether that is through bad coaching, poor chemistry or just a lack of form is hard to distinguish, however the issues for the Breakers this season go deeper than just a few players not shooting the ball well.
It’s a big week for: Cairns
If the Taipans are to make the finals, then this is going to be a monstrous week for the club – one you mark down and look back on as the round that set up their qualification.
While there is still plenty of Basketball to be played this season, Cairns play ten matches in the final five weeks with plenty of trips out on the road in that time.
This round serves as an incredibly important one with two home games, one of those against the league-leading Sydney Kings and another against the 36ers who they may need to beat in the season series to qualify for the finals.
For that reason not only is winning important, but winning well and picking up plenty of for and against differential, particularly in that Adelaide game.
Don’t forget to tune into The Roar throughout the week as we bring you live coverage of the NBL season.
Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde
The Sydney Kings have successfully defended their NBL crown.
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