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At the time of writing, there are eighty-two days remaining until the return fixtures, in round three of qualifying, for Russia 2018.
It’s been a nice Christmas, the weather has been pleasing on the eastern seaboard, perhaps a little hot at times, and with the A-League in full swing, the qualifiers haven’t been a daily source of discussion.
A dominant Sydney FC, the charging Victory and a consistent Brisbane all look impressive and Melbourne City loom, despite inconsistent performances and some cracks appearing in their armour.
The energy around the A-League is pleasing and the goal scoring has been consistent, substantial and of quality. Sydney and Adelaide have played the only scoreless draw and it’s been raining goals in recent weeks.
This morning I thought I would have a look at the Socceroos upcoming draw just to remind myself of the task that lies ahead. Initially I felt sick. The words of the late Carrie Fisher, as Princess Leia in The Empire Strikes Back, came to mind: “I have a bad feeling about this.”
But as I crunched the numbers, I realised we would be just fine.
Thankfully, three of the five matches are on home soil. I say thankfully, yet still cringe at the possibility of a substandard surface somewhere along the way. The 2-2 draw with Thailand was partly due to the levelling nature of the pitch.
Sure the Thais played incredibly well and Australia may well rue that draw, however, on a better surface that produces more flow and rhythm in the contest, they should prevail.
The Socceroos will take on Iraq at a venue yet to be decided on March 23. Away from home, it is a danger game (why do I feel like I am going to write that a few more times in this piece?). A relatively comfortable 2-0 win at nib Stadium in September would be a dream start, if emulated.
Considering the Samurai blue and the UAE battle it out on the same night, Australia could and should, move back into an automatic qualifying position. Fingers crossed.
Unfortunately, Saudi Arabia will probably knock off Thailand and join us either equal top or second, depending on the result in the Emirates. A draw there, and for what it’s worth, my tip, would see us sit top with the Saudis.
The top four would stand as follows, as the next match day approaches, only five days later, on March 28.
Australia 12
Saudi Arabia 12
Japan 11
UAE 11
The Socceroos vs UAE clash looks to be the only one in real question with Japan potentially far too strong for Thailand and Saudi Arabia covering Iraq, both on home soil.
The clash with UAE will be pivotal (there I go again). With both Japan and the Saudis climbing to fourteen points, a loss for the green and gold could derail the campaign. A win keeps them one clear at the top. A draw, one behind.
I truly believe it is this game that might decide our fate. For that reason, I predict a 2-1 victory for the Socceroos at Allianz Stadium. Geez, I’m gettin’ nervous here.
The subsequent table would be:
Australia 15
Japan 14
Saudi Arabia 14
UAE 11 (if we lose, look how bad this spot looks)
June 8-13 once again sees the Socceroos involved in the clutch game. The Samurai will cope with Iraq away from home and Thailand will put up a hell of a fight against the Emirates and might steal a draw, yet logic suggests a UAE win.
Australia’s clash with the Saudis at the Adelaide Oval looms, (do I see a pattern emerging here?) as a crucial tipping point for the squad. A win sees the Socceroos move to 18 points, one clear of Japan, with a significant gap to the Saudis and UAE both on 14. Qualification would be close to assured.
A loss would see the boys two points out of the automatic qualification position. The Socceroos’ propensity for drama, and my early death to which it will undoubtedly lead, leads me to think that they will draw either the June 8 game against Saudi Arabia or the previous round clash against the UAE. I have decided to pencil it in here.
You might want to avert your eyes before looking at the predicted table after a 1-1 draw in Adelaide.
Japan 17
Australia 16
Saudi Arabia 15
UAE 14
The Socceroos will head off for a Confederations Cup campaign in late June and friendlies against Argentina and now it appears Brazil, which be invaluable. Germany and Chile await, along with the African Champions.
Thankfully, upon their return, the next round on August 31 sees a comfortable encounter against… oh no… not them again. Japan. Away.
Who knows what will unfold this time around, yet it looks like the pivotal match-up (don’t they all?).
Does Postecoglou nab a goal and then park the bus as it has never been parked before? Should we throw the kitchen sink at them to ensure automatic qualification? Could the Socceroos even recover from a loss that could potentially break theirs and a nation’s hearts?
Safe bet? 1-1 draw.
The loser of the UAE vs Saudi Arabia clash might be a shot duck after this round and home ground advantage will get the Emirates through.
Thailand and Iraq will thrash it out for bragging rights.
That leaves the status of the group as such, leading into the tenth and final match.
Japan 18
Australia 17
(Considering Australia had a plus 2 goal difference advantage leading into 2017, they should be able to hang on to second spot. Maybe. Possibly.)
UAE 17
(A draw between UAE and the Saudi’s would put them both on 16, a much better result for the Socceroos)
Saudi Arabia 15
Thankfully the final round on September 5 is easy to predict and the end result thus. The Emirates will beat Iraq away from home. Japan will be too good for Saudi Arabia even on their home turf and the Socceroos will have a comfortable two or three-goal win against Thailand.
Now where does that leave us?
Japan 21
Australia 20
UAE 20
Saudi Arabia 15
Australia, therefore, qualify comfortably for Russia 2018 on the back of… goal difference! What! No, that can’t be right. Hang on, let me check the maths on all this.
Mmmmm, this is this going to be tougher than I thought. Without a loss, the Socceroos get through on goal difference?
Might want to ramp up the medical insurance I think.