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For the first time in decades, Cronulla fans greet the new season from a darkened porch. But before dreams of a repeat grow fins, let’s analyse the maiden title among a nail-biting trend in the NRL.
Of all the nutty annual predictions, “this’ll be the closest season ever,” is the one lathered in fact.
In 2016, 37 of the 201 matches were decided by two points or less, a staggering 18 per cent, the equivalent of almost one in every five games.
Twenty years ago it was only 14 per cent. The ratio climbed to 15 per cent in 2006 then reached 16 with Johnathan Thurston’s final play of 2015.
The gap between top and bottom has narrowed to the point where just a few muffed kicks can derail a season. It’s a worrying trend for coaches, and not surprisingly, the past four premiership winners have all sheltered behind elite marksman.
With heart-stoppers on the up, there’s simply no excuse to skimp from the tee.
Cronulla’s breakthrough season illustrates the point like a butchered golf cliché, ‘spine for show, kick for dough’.
Lost amid broken droughts, Churchill snubs and fullback foibles is the fact Cronulla didn’t drop a match by two points or less – the first premiership-winning side in 11 years to do so.
It’s hardly worth handstands at Northies, but it is super impressive when you consider 26 per cent (or seven games) of Cronulla’s 27 matches were decided by a conversion or less.
Had just three of those cliffhangers gone the other way, Cronulla’s story could well have finished the way of the previous 49.
But in James Maloney, Shane Flanagan found the final chapter’s missing scribe.
The buy of the season’s 78 per cent from the field replicated his three seasons at the Roosters, including the 2013 premiership.
Success rates of 65-70 per cent were once bread and butter for top-flight kickers but in the early 1990s the bar rose with the arrival of Matthew Ridge and Daryl Halligan from New Zealand rugby union.
For a decade they set the pinnacle above an unprecedented 80 per cent.
Today, the top kickers still strike in the eighties but the proportion above 80 per cent is on the rise.
In 2016, 23 players had 30 or more shots landing a combined 1,181 goals at 77 per cent.
Seven struck at better than 80 per cent. Back in 2006, only three kickers exceeded 80 per cent; by the finish of 2011 there were five.
The stats don’t lie; where 77 per cent was once considered elite, it’s now the benchmark and teams short of the mark will squander competition points.
So as the 2017 season approaches, what can be gained from last season’s kicking stats?
| Player | Team | Goals | Attempts | Success Rate |
| Johnathan Thurston | North Queensland | 96 | 114 | 84% |
| Trent Hodkinson | Newcastle | 47 | 56 | 84% |
| Jackson Hastings | Roosters | 26 | 31 | 84% |
| Issac Luke | Warriors | 28 | 34 | 82% |
| Tyrone Roberts | Gold Coast | 54 | 66 | 82% |
| Jarrod Croker | Canberra | 112 | 138 | 81% |
| Nathan Cleary | Penrith | 53 | 66 | 80% |
| Jordan Kahu | Brisbane | 42 | 53 | 79% |
| Michael Gordon | Parramatta | 71 | 91 | 78% |
| James Maloney | Cronulla | 94 | 121 | 78% |
| Siosiua Taukeiaho | Roosters | 27 | 35 | 77% |
| Jamie Soward | Penrith | 37 | 48 | 77% |
| Jamie Lyon | Manly | 50 | 65 | 77% |
| Ashley Taylor | Gold Coast | 26 | 34 | 76% |
| Adam Reynolds | Souths | 43 | 57 | 75% |
| Cameron Smith | Melbourne | 92 | 122 | 75% |
| Kerrod Holland | Canterbury | 39 | 52 | 75% |
| Shaun Johnson | Warriors | 42 | 57 | 74% |
| Moses Mbye | Canterbury | 32 | 45 | 71% |
| Garoth Widdop | St George-Illawarra | 54 | 77 | 70% |
| Jordan Rankin | Wests Tigers | 28 | 40 | 70% |
| Corey Parker | Brisbane | 45 | 69 | 65% |
| Mitchell Moses | Wests Tigers | 43 | 70 | 61% |
First up, if Thurston, Maloney and Jarrod Croker maintain fitness their respective sides are September shoe-ins.
Secondly, Cameron Smith is a below-average kicker but last year’s minor premiers will once again look to compensate through stingy defence.
Brisbane, Penrith and the Gold Coast field regular kickers who strike around 80 per cent and of last season’s lower-eight are well placed to kick on.
The Panthers were the 2016 cardiac kings with eight matches decided by two points or less (31 per cent: five wins, three losses). Breathing should ease with the addition of experience and another 80 per cent season from Nathan Cleary.
Canterbury’s stuttering attack is a forum favourite but they also rank poorly with the boot. In Moses Mbye (71 per cent) and Kerrod Holland (75 per cent) tries adjacent to the posts are a must.
With the departure of Michael Gordon (78 per cent), Parramatta do not have a recognised goal-kicker but finding a replacement won’t worry Trent Robinson who’ll be hopeful the former Eel commands a regular place in his Bondi backline.
Shaun Johnson (74 per cent) sits seven points shy of Stacey Jones’ Warriors point-scoring record but in Issac Luke (82 per cent) new coach Stephen Kearney may change tack.
Michael Maguire will stay with Adam Reynolds but would rather his kicking boots of old. At 75 per cent last year, the halfback was eight per cent down on his career average.
Of last year’s also-rans Manly, St George-Illawarra and the Wests Tigers look least prepared to regularly bother the touchies.
Jamie Lyon’s retirement leaves the Sea Eagles in a massive hole. Jackson Hastings’ boot (84 per cent) won him a late contract but where he ranks among Trent Barrett’s trio of five-eighth recruits is anyone’s guess.
The step-up in class from the NYC to the NRL doesn’t exclude goal kickers. Last season only one NYC kicker topped 80 per cent while five in the top ten struck below 70.
Unfortunately, the Dragons and Wests Tigers’ kickers are yet to complete the transition.
In Mitchell Moses (61 per cent), Jordan Rankin (70 per cent) and Gareth Widdop (70 per cent), both clubs will again be burdened by last season’s lowest-ranked kickers.
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