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Nowhere else in sport is there a greater oscillation between the logic of numbers and the potential chaos of raw human emotion and endeavour than in a Grand Slam draw.
Tennis isn’t exactly a sport that requires a rocket science degree to follow. In most tournaments the seeds are based on rankings and this year’s Australian Open is no different. On paper, tennis tournaments are basically an exercise in following the numbers.
On the men’s side the 32 seeded players match their rankings. On the women’s side the top 35 players, accounting for the absence of Madison Keys, Petra Kvitova and Victoria Azarenka, fill the top 32 seeds.
Essentially the seeding system suggests who should win the tournament. It’s paint by numbers, hence the champions of this year’s Australian Open should be Andy Murray and Angelique Kerber.
And this is what the recalcitrant in me hates. It’s the idea of rigid rules that state the best player, the top seed, should win.
It shouldn’t be with an adherence to the rules of the universe that we approach the draw to the Australian Open. We should engage with our inner hedonistic longings and embrace and rejoice in the potential chaos of upsets.
In this way we see the draw not as a mathematical document based on the probability of numbers and expected results but as a humanising of the event.
By doing this we reject automation over emotion.
We pay attention to human traits such as nerves, adrenaline and the power of the crowd.
We acknowledge the conditions and circumstances in which a match is played.
Through this approach the narrative of this year’s Australian Open is born and ensures each year’s event is differentiated from the previous.
By putting our faith in the unreliability of humans we see hope and dread mixed side-by-side, vying for attention.
The Australian Open doesn’t begin on Monday. It began with today’s draw and with the new stories just waiting to be written.
The draw fulfils its promise of anticipation with the upsets that will almost definitely occur and it teases us with what could have been but will never eventuate.
So, without a further adieu, here are a couple of tidbits from this year’s Australian Open draw that may fill you with excitement for what is to come or dread for the fortunes of your favourite player.
The Men’s Draw
The number one seed and world number one, Sir Andy Murray, has a fairly straight forward opening round match against Ukranian Illya Marchenk and it should be followed with another fairly pedestrian match against either a qualifier or Lu of Taiwan.
Other seeds of note in his section are Tomas Berdych, Roger Federer,, and Kei Nishikori.
Where some may see a seeding of 17 as a hindrance, the tennis Gods have seen this as opportunity for Roger Federer.
The Swiss maestro finds himself in a section of the draw with eight qualifiers and he’s drawn one in the first and potentially second rounds.
In the third round we may see a Federer v Berdych clash, followed by a Federer v Nishikori fourth round and a quarter-final with Murray if the draw stays to script.
In the bottom half of the draw lies one of the most interesting first round matches. Defending champion Novak Djokovic will meet Spaniard Fernando Verdasco.
The pair met only last week when Djokovic faced five match points against the Spaniard in Doha.
Verdasco may be starting a habit of sending top seeds packing in the first round. Last year he defeated compatriot Rafael Nadal in a five set thriller in the first round.
But should Djokovic get past Verdasco, and I think he will, he has a reasonably good run after that. He’s joined in his section of the draw by Richard Gasquet and Grigor Dimitrov.
Speaking of Nadal, he’s drawn Florian Mayer in the first round and could face up to either Marcos Bagdatis or Mikhail Youzhny in the second.
The Australian men
The run to the final isn’t a clearly paved, rosy stroll in the park for Australia’s men.
Nick Kyrgios has the advantage of a top 16 seeding and should comfortably win his opening match against Gastao Elias. He could then meet Sam Groth in the third round and Stan Wawrinka in the fourth.
Bernard Tomic has a tougher beginning, facing Thomas Belluci. Should he get through he’ll likely face former US Open champion, Marin Cilic in the third round.
Youngster Omar Jasika is unlikely to come up trumps against Spaniard, David Ferrer. Ferrer is easily the best player still on tour to never have won a Grand Slam. That coupled with the awe of the year’s first Grand Slam should be too much.
Jordan Thompson will need to be playing well in what could shape up to be a great match against Joao Sousa. In Friday’s Semi Final in Auckland, Sousa dispensed with Marcos Baghdadis in straight sets.
The Woman’s Draw
Defending champion, Angelique Kerber has a draw she should be reasonably happy with. She has a fairly straightforward draw until the quarters where she could meet Spain’s Garbine Muguruza.
The test for Kerber will be how she copes with the pressure of defending a Grand Slam for the first time.
The biggest story of the women’s draw is Serena Williams and the tricky section she finds herself in. Her opening round match with Belinda Bencic should be an interesting affair. The pair have met twice before with a win apiece.
Should Williams win she’ll have an equally tricky second round match against either Lucie Safarova or Yanina Wickmayer.
Once through a tricky first couple of rounds the draw opens right up for her but after her stunning loss to Madison Brengle in Auckland, Williams will have to show immense improvement.
And of course she will. Williams has equaled German Steffi Graf’s record 22 Grand Slam victories and there is no doubt the American wants to break Margaret Court’s record of 24.
In other parts of the draw third seed Agnieszka Radwanska has a tricky first round match against Tsvetana Pironkova, who sent her packing from Roland Garros last year.
Simona Halep will meet American Shelby Rogers in what could also be an interesting match up.
For Australia’s two highest ranked female players it will be tennis version of the Ashes.
Sam Stosur meets Briton Heather Watson and Daria Gavrilova takes on Watson’s compatriot Naomi Broady.
The battle between the dehumanising law and order of the seeding system and the passion and emotions of human sporting endeavor will begin in Melbourne on Monday.
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