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2017 Australian Open: Women's singles preview and draw analysis

Angelique Kerber is out of form. (robbiesaurus / Flickr)
Roar Guru
13th January, 2017
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The Australian Open, the first Grand Slam tournament of the year, is just around the corner, and all eyes will be on the world’s top two women, Angelique Kerber and Serena Williams.

Williams will be attempting to not only win a record-breaking seventh title Down Under, but also try to wrest back top spot in the rankings.

2016 will go down as a year in which there was a changing of the guard in women’s tennis, with Kerber’s upset victory over Williams in the final twelve months ago setting the precedence for an even season for the contenders after years of dominance by the American.

The German was also able to claim a second Major title at the US Open, unseating Williams on top of the rankings in the process.

Now, the 28-year-old, who turns 29 next week, will go from hunter to hunted as she enters a Major tournament not only as the defending champion, but also the top seed, for the first time.

Williams, meantime, will chase a seventh title as she bids to put a poor 2016 season behind her, in which she not only surrendered the world number one ranking after three-and-a-half years, but also claimed just two titles (including Wimbledon) and was a shadow of her dominant self.

Others expected to contend include former Wimbledon finalist Agnieszka Radwanska, former French Open finalist Simona Halep and serving machine Karolina Pliskova, whom no one will want to face when she is at her dominant best.

Let’s now have a look at some of the contenders for the 2017 Australian Open and analyse their potential paths to the title.

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Angelique Kerber (GER)
Current world ranking: 1

Titles in 2016: Australian Open, Stuttgart, Olympic Silver Medal, US Open

Grand Slam results in 2016
Australian Open: Champion (defeated Serena Williams in the final)
French Open: First round (lost to Kiki Bertens)
Wimbledon: Runner-up (lost to Serena Williams)
US Open: Champion (defeated Karolina Pliskova in the final)

Australian Open history
Best result: Champion (2016)
Last year’s result: Champion (defeated Serena Williams in the final)

Potential path to the title:
Round 1: Lesia Tsurenko (UKR)
Round 2: Carina Witthoft (GER)
Round 3: [27] Irina-Camelia Begu (ROU)
Round 4: [15] Roberta Vinci (ITA), [23] Daria Kasatkina (RUS) or Eugenie Bouchard (CAN)
Quarter-finals: [7] Garbine Muguruza (ESP)
Semi-finals: [4] Simona Halep (ROU), [8] Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS), [11] Elina Svitolina (UKR), [13] Venus Williams (USA) or [29] Monica Puig (PUR)
Final: [2] Serena Williams (USA), [3] Agnieszka Radwanska (POL), [5] Karolina Pliskova (CZE), [6] Dominika Cibulkova (SVK) or [9] Johanna Konta (GBR)

World number one Angelique Kerber is one of two women to watch over the next fortnight as she seeks to successfully defend her Australian Open title.

The German, as mentioned above, was clearly the most consistent player of 2016 as she set about overhauling Serena Williams at the top of the rankings.

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The 28-year-old started the 2016 season by reaching the final in Brisbane, where she lost to Victoria Azarenka, before finding herself in deep trouble in her first round match against Misaki Doi at the Australian Open.

In that match, she faced a match point in the second set but came back to win in three sets, then went on to reach her first career Grand Slam final where she stood no chance of beating Serena Williams.

However, Kerber would play the match of her life to stun the defending champion with a three-set victory, climbing to number two in the rankings in the process.

A series of inconsistent results would follow as Kerber struggled to adapt to the pressure of being a Grand Slam champion. While she was able to defend her title in Stuttgart, she later suffered a first round exit at the hands of eventual semi-finalist Kiki Bertens at the French Open.

She would bounce back at Wimbledon, reaching the final, but couldn’t repeat the dose on Serena as she lost in straight sets. Shortly after, she would claim the Silver Medal at the Rio Olympics after losing to Monica Puig in the final.

The German then had the chance to claim the world number one ranking at Cincinnati, but she would be denied by Karolina Pliskova, who defeated her rather easily in the championship match.

The result would then be reversed where it mattered most, at the US Open, when Kerber won in the final in three sets shortly after her ascent to top spot was confirmed when Serena Williams lost her semi-final to Pliskova.

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Fast forward to now and it will remain to be seen how she handles the pressure of not only being the defending champion, but also being top seed at a Major tournament for the first time.

Kerber will start her title defence against Ukraine’s Lesia Tsurenko; get past that and either a qualifier or compatriot Carina Witthoft will await in the second round.

The first seed she could face is Romania’s Irina-Camelia Begu, who defeated her in the first round in 2015, in the third round; her projected fourth round opponent is Roberta Vinci, whom she beat in the quarter-finals of the US Open last September.

Spanish seventh seed and reigning French Open champion Garbine Muguruza could then await Kerber in the quarter-finals, before any of Simona Halep, Venus Williams or Svetlana Kuznetsova loom in the semi-finals.

It might be a tough path for the defending champion, but I expect her to again feature deep in the tournament, just not winning the title again.

Prediction: Finalist

Serena Williams (USA)
Current world ranking: 2

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Titles in 2016: Rome, Wimbledon

Grand Slam results in 2016
Australian Open: Runner-up (lost to Angelique Kerber)
French Open: Runner-up (lost to Garbine Muguruza)
Wimbledon: Champion (defeated Angelique Kerber in the final)
US Open: Semi-finals (lost to Karolina Pliskova)

Australian Open history
Best result: Won six times (2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2015)
Last year’s result: Runner-up (lost to Angelique Kerber)

Potential path to the title:
Round 1: Belinda Bencic (SUI)
Round 2: Lucie Safarova (CZE)
Round 3: [25] Timea Babos (HUN)
Round 4: [16] Barbora Strycova (CZE), [21] Caroline Garcia (FRA) or Andrea Petkovic (GER)
Quarter-finals: [6] Dominika Cibulkova (SVK), [9] Johanna Konta (GBR) or [17] Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)
Semi-finals: [3] Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) or [5] Karolina Pliskova (CZE)
Final: [1] Angelique Kerber (GER), [4] Simona Halep (ROU), [7] Garbine Muguruza (ESP) or [13] Venus Williams (USA)

If anyone is desperate to bounce back from a rather poor 2016 season, it’s six-time champion and dethroned world number one Serena Williams.

The American contested just eight tournaments last year, well down on past seasons, won only two titles and for the second year running called time on her season after a shock defeat at the US Open, this time to Karolina Pliskova.

That resulted in the 35-year-old losing the world number one ranking, which she had held since February 2013, to Angelique Kerber, but she now has the chance to claim it back, depending on how both women fare over the next fortnight.

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As it stands, Kerber has 8,875 rankings points, while Williams has 7,080; a gap of 1,795 points. When the points from last year are taken off (2,000 and 1,300 respectively), they now have 6,875 and 5,780.

If the pair meet in the final, Kerber will remain number one regardless of what happens.

This is where it gets interesting – if Kerber fails to reach the final, Williams only needs to win the title to regain top spot in the rankings (as Kerber would lose at least 1,280 rankings points and Williams would earn 700 – that would be enough for Williams to overtake Kerber in the rankings).

The battle for top spot will be the major subplot in the women’s tournament.

Williams’ path to a seventh Australian Open title starts with a potentially difficult first-up meeting against former world number seven Belinda Bencic.

The 2013 junior Wimbledon champion broke into the top ten just less than twelve months ago, but a series of niggling injuries saw her drop out of the top 40 and she therefore looms as one of the most dangerous floaters in the draw.

Further, Bencic defeated Williams in their most recent meeting – at the 2015 Rogers Cup – en route to eventually winning the title, and the head-to-head is tied at 1-all.

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But that’s not all – the American could then face her victim in the 2015 French Open final, Lucie Safarova, another former top ten player who is unseeded after an injury-plagued 2016 season sent her plummeting out of the top 50.

Her first genuine threats should come in the quarter-finals, where any of reigning WTA Finals champion Dominika Cibulkova, recent Sydney titlist Johanna Konta or former world number one Caroline Wozniacki could await.

Then, in the semi-finals, either third seed Agnieszka Radwanska or her US Open nemesis Karolina Pliskova could await.

It’s all there for the taking for Williams. Though the American struggled in 2016, winning only two titles, you can never underestimate the 35-year-old.

Prediction: Champion

Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)
Current world ranking: 3

Titles in 2016: Shenzhen, Connecticut, Beijing

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Grand Slam results in 2016
Australian Open: Semi-finals (lost to Serena Williams)
French Open: Fourth round (lost to Tsvetana Pironkova)
Wimbledon: Fourth round (lost to Dominika Cibulkova)
US Open: Fourth round (lost to Ana Konjuh)

Australian Open history
Best result: Semi-finals (2014, 2016)
Last year’s result: Semi-finals (lost to Serena Williams)

Potential path to the title:
Round 1: Tsvetana Pironkova (BUL)
Round 2: Mirjana Lucic-Baroni (CRO)
Round 3: [28] Alize Cornet (FRA)
Round 4: [14] Elena Vesnina (RUS) or [18] Samantha Stosur (AUS)
Quarter-finals: [5] Karolina Pliskova (CZE)
Semi-finals: [2] Serena Williams (USA), [6] Dominika Cibulkova (SVK), [9] Johanna Konta (GBR) or [17] Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)
Final: [1] Angelique Kerber (GER), [4] Simona Halep (ROU), [7] Garbine Muguruza (ESP) or [13] Venus Williams (USA)

Another player who generally performs well at Melbourne Park is world number three Agnieszka Radwanska.

While the Pole enjoyed a consistent 2016 season, she was only able to reach the semi-finals at the Australian Open, where she found defending champion Serena Williams too good for her.

At the other three Majors she lost to Tsvetana Pironkova, Dominika Cibulkova and Ana Konjuh; in the former two of those defeats she had numerous chances to win the match but was affected by a rain delay and a hand injury respectively.

Outside the Majors, Radwanska was able to win three titles, including her milestone 20th title at the China Open in Beijing. She also qualified for the WTA Finals in Singapore for the sixth consecutive year – currently the longest streak of any player.

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Radwanska now returns Down Under where she has generally performed well; not only did she twice reach the semi-finals but it was also here in 2008 where she reached her first Grand Slam quarter-final, defeating Svetlana Kuznetsova to do so.

She faces a tough opening match, coming up against her French Open nemesis in Tsvetana Pironkova; Frenchwoman Alize Cornet (seeded 28th) then shapes has her first seeded opponent in the third round.

Australian Samantha Stosur (18th) is in this section of the draw and looms as Radwanska’s potential fourth round opponent, provided the perennial home struggler gets this far for just the third time (after 2006 and 2010).

Should Radwanska reach the quarter-finals, she could face Czech serving machine Karolina Pliskova, who enters the Australian Open in hot form having served her way to the Brisbane International title last week. Then, in the semi-finals, she could face any of Serena Williams, Dominika Cibulkova or Caroline Wozniacki.

It’s a tough draw, but I think Radwanska should again feature at the business end of the tournament.

Prediction: Semi-finals

Karolina Pliskova (CZE)
Current world ranking: 5

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Titles in 2016/2017: Nottingham, Cincinnati, Brisbane (2017)

Grand Slam results in 2016
Australian Open: Third round (lost to Ekaterina Makarova)
French Open: First round (lost to Shelby Rogers)
Wimbledon: Second round (lost to Misaki Doi)
US Open: Runner-up (lost to Angelique Kerber)

Australian Open history
Best result: Third round (2015, 2016)
Last year’s result: Third round (lost to Ekaterina Makarova)

Potential path to the title:
Round 1: Sara Sorribes Tormo (ESP)
Round 2: Monica Niculescu (ROU)
Round 3: [31] Yulia Putintseva (KAZ)
Round 4: [12] Timea Bacsinszky (SUI), [22] Daria Gavrilova (AUS), Ana Konjuh (CRO) or Kristina Mladenovic (FRA)
Quarter-finals: [3] Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)
Semi-finals: [2] Serena Williams (USA), [6] Dominika Cibulkova (SVK), [9] Johanna Konta (GBR) or [17] Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)
Final: [1] Angelique Kerber (GER), [4] Simona Halep (ROU), [7] Garbine Muguruza (ESP) or [13] Venus Williams (USA)

Without a doubt, the player to watch at the 2017 Australian Open is Karolina Pliskova.

The Czech served the most aces of any woman in 2016 and when she is in good form you would not want to face her.

It showed during the US Open series last year when she thrashed Angelique Kerber in the final in straight sets before going on to knock out both Williams sisters en route to reaching her first Grand Slam final in New York.

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There, she would give Kerber a run for her money but she would ultimately go down to the German in three sets.

It was her most significant result at a Major after she had failed to get past the third round in any of her previous appearances. Even so, her Grand Slam form remains her Achilles heel, but her run to the final at Flushing Meadows last September could be a sign of things to come.

Already the 24-year-old, whose twin sister Kristyna is yet to enjoy her own breakthrough, has started 2017 in devastating fashion, dealing Alize Cornet a straight-sets thrashing in the Brisbane final to claim her seventh career title.

The form she showed in the Sunshine capital has surely got to serve as an ominous warning to her rivals that a maiden Grand Slam title might not be too far away, given she continues building good form at the major tournaments.

The Czech has a relatively easy opening match against Spain’s Sara Sorribes Tormo but could then face Monica Niculescu in the second round. French Open quarter-finalist Yulia Putintseva, who defeated Caroline Wozniacki in the first round last year, then looms as her first seeded opponent in the third round.

Another one of Australia’s hopes, Daria Gavrilova, is in this section of the draw and she, along with US Open quarter-finalist Ana Konjuh, Frenchwoman Kristina Mladenovic and former French Open semi-finalist Timea Bacsinszky loom as fourth round opponents for Pliskova.

In the quarter-finals, she is expected to come up against Agnieszka Radwanska, and that’s where her run could possibly come to an end, given the Czech has not defeated the Pole in six attempts.

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But should she reach the final four for the second consecutive Major tournament, she could then face either Serena Williams, Dominika Cibulkova, Johanna Konta or Caroline Wozniacki.

If it’s Williams who Pliskova ends up facing, then the American is sure to be out for revenge for last year’s US Open semi-final defeat, a result which saw the 35-year-old lose her world number one ranking.

Now that the Czech has warmed up for the Australian Open in the best way possible, it remains to be seen how she performs at Melbourne Park.

Prediction: Quarter-finals

Key first round matches
[1] Angelique Kerber (GER) vs Lesia Tsurenko (UKR)
Louisa Chirico (USA) vs Eugenie Bouchard (CAN)
Coco Vandeweghe (USA) vs [15] Roberta Vinci (ITA)
Marina Erakovic (NZL) vs [7] Garbine Muguruza (ESP)
[4] Simona Halep (ROU) vs Shelby Rogers (USA)
[WC] Ashleigh Barty (AUS) vs Annika Beck (GER)
Qualifier vs [WC] Destanee Aiava (AUS)
Kateryna Kozlova (UKR) vs [13] Venus Williams (USA)
[26] Laura Siegemund (GER) vs Jelena Jankovic (SRB)
[5] Karolina Pliskova (CZE) vs Sara Sorribes Tormo (ESP)
[22] Daria Gavrilova (AUS) vs Naomi Broady (GBR)
Ana Konjuh (CRO) vs Kristina Mladenovic (FRA)
Heather Watson (GBR) vs [18] Samantha Stosur (AUS)
Tsvetana Pironkova (BUL) vs [3] Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)
[6] Dominika Cibulkova (SVK) vs Denisa Allertova (CZE)
[17] Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) vs [WC] Arina Rodionova (AUS)
Kirsten Flipkens (BEL) vs [9] Johanna Konta (GBR)
Belinda Bencic (SUI) vs [2] Serena Williams (USA)

Potential matches that could unfold later in the tournament

Second round
[4] Simona Halep (ROU) vs [WC] Ashleigh Barty (AUS)
[WC] Destanee Aiava (AUS) vs [29] Monica Puig (PUR)
[22] Daria Gavrilova (AUS) vs Kristina Mladenovic (FRA)
Sara Errani (ITA) vs [30] Ekaterina Makarova (RUS)
[17] Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) vs [WC] Lizette Cabrera (AUS)
Lucie Safarova (CZE) vs [2] Serena Williams (USA)

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Third round
[1] Angelique Kerber (GER) vs [27] Irina Camelia-Begu (ROU)
Eugenie Bouchard (CAN) vs [15] Roberta Vinci (ITA)
[32] Anastasija Sevastova (LAT) vs [7] Garbine Muguruza (ESP)
[4] Simona Halep (ROU) vs [29] Monica Puig (PUR)
Jelena Jankovic (SRB) vs [8] Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS)
[22] Daria Gavrilova (AUS) vs [12] Timea Bacsinszky (SUI)
[28] Alize Cornet (FRA) vs [3] Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)
[6] Dominika Cibulkova (SVK) vs [30] Ekaterina Makarova (RUS)
[17] Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) vs [9] Johanna Konta (GBR)

Fourth round
[1] Angelique Kerber (GER) vs [15] Roberta Vinci (ITA)
[10] Carla Suarez Navarro (ESP) vs [7] Garbine Muguruza (ESP)
[4] Simona Halep (ROU) vs [13] Venus Williams (USA)
[11] Elina Svitolina (UKR) vs [8] Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS)
[5] Karolina Pliskova (CZE) vs [22] Daria Gavrilova (AUS)
[14] Elena Vesnina (RUS) vs [3] Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)
[6] Dominika Cibulkova (SVK) vs [9] Johanna Konta (GBR)
[16] Barbora Strycova (CZE) vs [2] Serena Williams (USA)

Quarter-finals
[1] Angelique Kerber (GER) vs [7] Garbine Muguruza (ESP)
[13] Venus Williams (USA) vs [8] Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS)
[5] Karolina Pliskova (CZE) vs [3] Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)
[9] Johanna Konta (GBR) vs [2] Serena Williams (USA)

Semi-finals
[1] Angelique Kerber (GER) vs [13] Venus Williams (USA)
[3] Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) vs [2] Serena Williams (USA)

Final
[1] Angelique Kerber (GER) vs [2] Serena Williams (USA)

The top half of the draw will get underway on Monday; the bottom half on Tuesday. The same applies for the men.

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