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2017 Australian Open: Men's singles preview and draw analysis

The Australian Open has been rocked by accusations of match fixing in tennis. (australianopen / Instagram)
Roar Guru
14th January, 2017
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The first Grand Slam tournament of the New Year is just around the corner, and all eyes will be on the world’s top two men, Sir Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic.

The former is attempting to make it sixth time lucky and the latter looking to win a record-breaking seventh title Down Under.

To say the least, 2016 was a story of two halves, with Djokovic dominating the first half of it, during which he claimed his sixth Australian Open title and completed his set of Grand Slam titles by winning the French Open, to build what seemed to be an unassailable lead over Murray at the top of the rankings.

Murray, with Ivan Lendl back in his corner as coach, then became the most dominant player in the second half of the year, winning his second Wimbledon title and then becoming the first player to win two Olympic singles Gold Medals.

The Scot then went on a five-tournament winning streak, culminating in him winning the ATP World Tour Finals for the first time and overtaking Djokovic at the top of the rankings.

The pair picked up where they left off from last year when they met in the final of the Qatar Open in the first week of the new season. With Djokovic winning that match in three sets, it could be indicative of the battle we could be in for in 2017.

Murray and Djokovic aside, Milos Raonic and Stan Wawrinka loom as the leading contenders to the pair, while former heavyweights Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will look to put injury-plagued seasons well and truly behind them.

And as always, Australian hopes will hinge on Nick Kyrgios, for whom this will be his first official tournament since copping a three-week suspension for tanking at the Shanghai Masters last October, and Bernard Tomic, who generally performs well at home, though he is yet to reach the quarter-finals at Melbourne Park.

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Let’s now have a look at some of the contenders for the 2017 Australian Open and analyse their potential paths to the title.

Sir Andy Murray (GBR)
Current world ranking: 1

Titles in 2016: Rome, Queen’s, Wimbledon, Olympic Gold Medal, Beijing, Shanghai, Vienna, Paris Masters, ATP World Tour Finals

Grand Slam results in 2016
Australian Open: Runner-up (lost to Novak Djokovic)
French Open: Runner-up (lost to Novak Djokovic)
Wimbledon: Champion (defeated Milos Raonic in the final)
US Open: Quarter-finals (lost to Kei Nishikori)

Australian Open history
Best result: Runner-up five times (2010, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2016)
Last year’s result: Runner-up (lost to Novak Djokovic)

Potential path to the title:
Round 1: Iliya Marchenko (UKR)
Round 2: Lu Yen-hsun (TPE)
Round 3: [31] Sam Querrey (USA)
Round 4: [16] Lucas Pouille (FRA) or [19] John Isner (USA)
Quarter-finals: [5] Kei Nishikori (JPN), [10] Tomas Berdych (CZE) or [17] Roger Federer (SUI)
Semi-finals: [4] Stan Wawrinka (SUI), [7] Marin Cilic (CRO) or [12] Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)
Final: [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB), [3] Milos Raonic (CAN), [8] Dominic Thiem (AUT) or [9] Rafael Nadal (ESP)

World number one Sir Andy Murray is one of two men to watch over the next fortnight as he seeks to make it sixth time lucky at the Australian Open.

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The Scot, as mentioned above, was clearly the most dominant player in the second half of 2016 as he set about overhauling Novak Djokovic at the top of the rankings.

After finishing runner-up to his Serbian rival at the Australian and French Opens, Murray rehired Ivan Lendl as his coach and the magic weaved by the Czech great that saw the 29-year-old win the Olympic Gold Medal in London, followed shortly after by the US Open in 2012, and his first Wimbledon title in 2013, returned.

Murray retained his title at Queen’s and thus became the most successful player at the tournament; that set the precedence for him to reign at the All England Club for the second time and as well finish the grass court season undefeated.

He then went on to repeat as Gold Medallist at the Rio Olympics, defeating Juan Martin del Potro in a high-octane, four-set final that lasted just over four hours.

A quarter-final loss to Kei Nishikori at the US Open followed before Murray took part in Great Britain’s Davis Cup semi-final tie against Argentina, where they would have their title defence ended.

Murray would then finish the season by winning five consecutive titles: in Beijing, Shanghai, Vienna, the Paris Masters, and finally, but most importantly, the ATP World Tour Finals in London.

It was at the latter tournament where he clinched the year-end world number one ranking, by virtue of defeating Novak Djokovic in the final. The Scot had overtaken the Serb upon reaching the final of the Paris Masters the fortnight before the season finale in London.

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Already Murray has started the new year nearly the same way he ended last year, reaching the final in Doha and losing to Novak Djokovic in a match which lasted nearly three hours.

Despite that defeat, the 29-year-old remains one of the title favourites but must navigate through a potentially tricky path if he is to reach his seventh Australian Open final.

He will start against Ukraine’s Iliya Marchenko, who reached the fourth round of the US Open last year, before potentially taking on Taiwan’s Lu Yen-hsun in the second round.

The first seed Murray could face is 31st-ranked American Sam Querrey, who upset Novak Djokovic in the third round at Wimbledon last year. Another American, 19th-seeded John Isner, or French 16th seed Lucas Pouille, could then block his path to an eighth consecutive Australian Open quarter-final.

It gets tougher from here – he could then face any of Tomas Berdych, Roger Federer (whose 17th seeding is his lowest ever at a Grand Slam tournament) or Kei Nishikori in the quarter-finals, while Stan Wawrinka could await in the semi-finals.

Other opponents Murray may also have to face in the final four stage include former US Open champion Marin Cilic, who defeated him in the Cincinnati final last August, as well as Australia’s two best hopes, Nick Kyrgios and Bernard Tomic, who are in the same quarter as each other.

It might be a tough draw for the world number one, but I think he should reach another final where he might fancy his chances this time around.

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Prediction: Finalist

Novak Djokovic (SRB)
Current world ranking: 2

Titles in 2016/2017: Doha, Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid, French Open, Rogers Cup, Doh (2017)

Grand Slam results in 2016
Australian Open: Champion (defeated Sir Andy Murray in the final)
French Open: Champion (defeated Sir Andy Murray in the final)
Wimbledon: Third round (lost to Sam Querrey)
US Open: Runner-up (lost to Stan Wawrinka)

Australian Open history
Best result: Won six times (2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016)
Last year’s result: Champion (defeated Sir Andy Murray in the final)

Potential path to the title:
Round 1: Fernando Verdasco (ESP)
Round 2: Denis Istomin (UZB)
Round 3: [30] Pablo Carreno Busta (ESP)
Round 4: [15] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) or [18] Richard Gasquet (FRA)
Quarter-finals: [8] Dominic Thiem (AUT) or [11] David Goffin (BEL)
Semi-finals: [3] Milos Raonic (CAN), [6] Gael Monfils (FRA) or [9] Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Final: [1] Sir Andy Murray (GBR), [4] Stan Wawrinka (SUI), [5] Kei Nishikori (JPN) or [17] Roger Federer (SUI)

Not for the first time, Novak Djokovic is the one to beat at the Australian Open.

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The Serb will be on a mission not only to capture a record-breaking seventh crown Down Under, he will also be out to reclaim his world number one ranking which he can only do if he wins the title and Sir Andy Murray loses before the semi-finals.

After completing his set of Grand Slam titles at Roland Garros last June, Djokovic endured a poor second half of 2016, losing early at Wimbledon and the Olympics, as well as losing to Stan Wawrinka in the final of the US Open and surrendering his place at the top of the rankings to Murray.

Because the 29-year-old will be defending maximum points not only here, but also at Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid and the French Open, throughout the first half of this year, his chances of reclaiming top spot in the short term might not come until Wimbledon, by which point all the pressure will be on Sir Andy Murray.

In the meantime, Djokovic can only focus on creating history at Melbourne Park, and his bid to do just that will start with a very tricky first-round assignment against Fernando Verdasco.

Not only did the Spaniard push the Serb in the semi-finals in Doha (holding five match points in the second set tiebreak), he also defeated compatriot Rafael Nadal in the first round at the Australian Open twelve months ago, and was the last man other than Federer or Djokovic to beat Andy Murray at the tournament, in 2009.

The first seed Djokovic could face is another Spaniard, Pablo Carreno Busta, in the third round, while another pair of tricky opponents in either Grigor Dimitrov (seeded 15th) or Richard Gasquet (18th) could loom in the fourth round.

Eighth seed Dominic Thiem, who got knocked out in the quarter-finals of the Sydney International this week, or 11th seed David Goffin could then await in the final eight, before any of Milos Raonic (3rd), Gael Monfils (6th) or 2009 champion Rafael Nadal (9th) loom in the semi-finals.

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It’s all there for the taking for Djokovic. Can the Serb make it a second hat-trick at Melbourne Park (after 2011-3) and a record-breaking seventh crown? I think he can.

Prediction: Champion

Milos Raonic (CAN)
Current world ranking: 3

Title in 2016: Brisbane

Grand Slam results in 2016
Australian Open: Semi-finals (lost to Sir Andy Murray)
French Open: Fourth round (lost to Albert Ramos-Vinolas)
Wimbledon: Runner-up (lost to Sir Andy Murray)
US Open: Second round (lost to Ryan Harrison)

Australian Open history
Best result: Semi-finals (2016)
Last year’s result: Semi-finals (lost to Sir Andy Murray)

Potential path to the title:
Round 1: Dustin Brown (GER)
Round 2: Gilles Muller (LUX)
Round 3: [25] Gilles Simon (FRA)
Round 4: [13] Roberto Bautista-Agut (ESP) or [21] David Ferrer (ESP)
Quarter-finals: [6] Gael Monfils (FRA) or [9] Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Semi-finals: [2] Novak Djokovic (ESP), [8] Dominic Thiem (AUT) or [15] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL)
Final: [1] Sir Andy Murray (GBR), [4] Stan Wawrinka (SUI), [5] Kei Nishikori (JPN) or [17] Roger Federer (SUI)

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Another player to watch out for at Melbourne Park is world number three Milos Raonic.

The Canadian enjoyed his most consistent season to date, reaching the semi-finals of the Australian Open where he lost to Sir Andy Murray in five sets, and reaching his first career Grand Slam final at Wimbledon where he also lost to Murray, this time in straight sets, after defeating Roger Federer in the final four.

Amidst this, he has now gone over twelve months without winning a title, not saluting since he upset Federer to win in Brisbane last January. His title defence in the Sunshine capital was ended by eventual champion Grigor Dimitrov last week.

That was to be his only warm-up tournament in the lead-up to the Australian Open, where he will be hoping to go one better than his semi-final showing twelve months ago. At that stage, he led Sir Andy Murray by two sets to one, but injury conspired against him as he eventually lost in five gruelling sets.

He was also on the wrong end of defeat to Murray not only in his first Major final at Wimbledon, but also in the semi-finals of the ATP World Tour Finals, in which he held a match point in the third-set tiebreak in what was the longest match measured by time both in the 2016 season and in the tournament’s history.

The high quality of that match, which clocked in at three hours and 38 minutes, was cited as the reason Raonic said it was the best match he had ever played, though this was his eighth consecutive defeat to the Scot.

He now arrives in Melbourne as one of many hopefuls keen to prevent another Murray-Djokovic final.

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The Canadian faces a potentially tricky first couple of rounds, including facing Dustin Brown (whose big-name Major scalps include Lleyton Hewitt and Rafael Nadal) and Gilles Muller (who defeated Nadal and Andy Roddick in 2005) in the first two rounds.

The first seed he could face is 25th-seeded Gilles Simon of France, a former quarter-finalist at Melbourne Park, while ironman David Ferrer could await in the fourth round.

From there, the going gets tough – he could face Gael Monfils or Rafael Nadal in the quarter-finals, while history-chasing Novak Djokovic, whom he has never beaten in eight attempts, is expected to be his semi-final opponent.

If he can conquer the draw he has been handed, then who knows what might happen?

Prediction: Semi-finals

Stan Wawrinka (SUI)
Current world ranking: 4

Titles in 2016: Chennai, Dubai, Geneva, US Open

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Grand Slam results in 2016
Australian Open: Fourth round (lost to Milos Raonic)
French Open: Semi-finals (lost to Sir Andy Murray)
Wimbledon: Second round (lost to Juan Martin del Potro)
US Open: Champion (defeated Novak Djokovic in the final)

Australian Open history
Best result: Champion (2014)
Last year’s result: Fourth round (lost to Milos Raonic)

Potential path to the title:
Round 1: Martin Klizan (SVK)
Round 2: Steve Johnson (USA)
Round 3: [29] Viktor Troicki (SRB)
Round 4: [14] Nick Kyrgios (AUS) or [22] Pablo Cuevas (URU)
Quarter-finals: [7] Marin Cilic (CRO) or [12] Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)
Semi-finals: [1] Sir Andy Murray (GBR), [5] Kei Nishikori (JPN), [10] Tomas Berdych (CZE) or [17] Roger Federer (SUI)
Final: [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB), [3] Milos Raonic (CAN), [8] Dominic Thiem (AUT) or [9] Rafael Nadal (ESP)

Another player who enjoyed a consistent 2016 season is world number four Stan Wawrinka.

The Swiss claimed his third Major title by defeating Novak Djokovic in the final of the US Open last September, meaning he requires only a Wimbledon title to complete his set of Grand Slam titles.

It was one of four titles the Lausanne native claimed in 2016, also winning in Chennai, Dubai and Geneva, while his loss to Alexander Zverev in the St Petersburg final ended a streak of 11 consecutive victories in tournament finals dating back to June 2013.

Amidst his achievements last year, he was unlucky to draw Juan Martin del Potro in the second round of Wimbledon, but was able to defeat him in the quarter-finals of the US Open. He also missed the Rio Olympics due to a back injury.

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The 31-year-old has played just one warm-up tournament in the lead-up to the Australian Open – the Brisbane International, where he lost in the semi-finals to Kei Nishikori.

It was a departure from years past whereby he chose to play in Chennai, where he chose not to chase a record fourth consecutive title.

His path to a second Australian Open title starts with a first round match against Martin Klizan, after which he could face Steve Johnson and 29th seed Viktor Troicki before a potentially explosive fourth round showdown against local hope Nick Kyrgios looms.

Wawrinka and Kyrgios have history against each other, sparked by that infamous incident in Montreal in 2015 whereby the latter sledged the recently minted French Open champion about his girlfriend, Donna Vekic, suggesting that Thanasi Kokkinakis had an affair with her.

They got very close to facing each other at the US Open last year before Kyrgios was stopped by an injury which forced him to retire in his third round match against Ukraine’s Iliya Marchenko.

Should Wawrinka reach the quarter-finals as expected, he could then strike former US Open champion Marin Cilic or former finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga before a potential semi-final showdown against top seed Sir Andy Murray.

It’s by no means an easy path, but Wawrinka should at the very least feature at the business end of the tournament once again.

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Prediction: Semi-finals

Key first round matches
[1] Sir Andy Murray (GBR) vs Iliya Marchenko (UKR)
Qualifier vs [17] Roger Federer (SUI)
Andrey Kuznetsov (RUS) vs [5] Kei Nishikori (JPN)
[4] Stan Wawrinka (SUI) vs Martin Klizan (SVK)
Gastao Elias (POR) vs [14] Nick Kyrgios (AUS)
[27] Bernard Tomic (AUS) vs Thomaz Bellucci (BRA)
[PR] Jerzy Janowicz (POL) vs [7] Marin Cilic (CRO)
[6] Gael Monfils (FRA) vs Jiri Vesely (CZE)
Mikhail Youzhny (RUS) vs Marcos Baghdatis (CYP)
Florian Mayer (GER) vs Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Dustin Brown (GER) vs [3] Milos Raonic (CAN)
[15] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) vs [WC] Christopher O’Connell (AUS)
Fernando Verdasco (ESP) vs [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB)

Potential matches that could unfold later in the tournament

Second round
[1] Sir Andy Murray (GBR) vs Lu Yen-hsun (TPE)
Andreas Seppi (ITA) vs [14] Nick Kyrgios (AUS)
Mikhail Youzhny (RUS) or Marcos Baghdatis (CYP) vs [9] Rafael Nadal (ESP)
[WC] Denis Istomin (UZB) vs [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB)

Third round
[1] Sir Andy Murray (GBR) vs [31] Sam Querrey (USA)
[10] Tomas Berdych (CZE) vs [17] Roger Federer (SUI)
[27] Bernard Tomic (AUS) vs [7] Marin Cilic (CRO)
[24] Alexander Zverev (GER) vs [9] Rafael Nadal (ESP)
[25] Gilles Simon (FRA) vs [3] Milos Raonic (CAN)
[15] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) vs [18] Richard Gasquet (FRA)

Fourth round
[1] Sir Andy Murray (GBR) vs [16] Lucas Pouille (FRA)
[17] Roger Federer (SUI) vs [5] Kei Nishikori (JPN)
[4] Stan Wawrinka (SUI) vs [14] Nick Kyrgios (AUS)
[12] Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) vs [7] Marin Cilic (CRO)
[6] Gael Monfils (FRA) vs [9] Rafael Nadal (ESP)
[13] Roberto Bautista-Agut (ESP) vs [3] Milos Raonic (CAN)
[8] Dominic Thiem (AUT) vs [11] David Goffin (BEL)
[15] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) vs [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB)

Quarter-finals
[1] Sir Andy Murray (GBR) vs [17] Roger Federer (SUI)
[4] Stan Wawrinka (SUI) vs [7] Marin Cilic (CRO)
[9] Rafael Nadal (ESP) vs [3] Milos Raonic (CAN)
[8] Dominic Thiem (AUT) vs [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB)

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Semi-finals
[1] Sir Andy Murray (GBR) vs [4] Stan Wawrinka (SUI)
[3] Milos Raonic (CAN) vs [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB)

Final
[1] Sir Andy Murray (GBR) vs [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB)

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