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If you look at AFL expansion strictly from a business perspective, overseas expansion is the next logical step.
When the AFL overlooked Tasmania and Canberra and put new teams in Western Sydney and on the Gold Coast they clearly put profit as their first priority.
They could have put teams in Tasmania and Canberra or added third teams in Perth and Adelaide but they went with Western Sydney and the Gold Coast instead because they were new markets, particularly for TV.
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When you look at potential locations for new teams within Australia it’s hard to find new markets that aren’t already catered for or that can support a team financially.
Perth and Adelaide are captive markets that each have two teams already so adding new teams would only dilute the support that’s already there.
It would just be splitting the pie three ways rather than two.
Sydney is a struggle as is with only two teams and I can’t see them getting a third.
Brisbane struggles to support just one team, so a second is highly unlikely.
Regional locations like Tasmania, Canberra, Darwin, Sunshine Coast, Cairns or Newcastle would add little to AFL coffers. They don’t stand a chance.
The only option left if the AFL want to significantly increase TV ratings and therefore their profit is to go overseas.
You might think it sounds unlikely but put yourself in the AFL’s shoes.
If you were running the AFL what do you think would be better markets?
A) Tasmania, Canberra and Newcastle
B) Beijing, New Delhi and Tokyo
As you can see the new markets in Asia are much more interesting if they can be developed and made to work.
It takes a lot of money from the AFL to make a new team succeed which is another big factor they have to consider when they decide where to place a new team.
The AFL has so far invested at least $200 million into both the Suns and the Giants which are both in rugby league heartlands where the AFL is often derided as “Melbourne Rules”. So far the ROI for these teams hasn’t been that great.
New teams in Asia wouldn’t have to contend with a second full contact code or the interstate cultural rivalry and parochialism within Australia, let alone biased media.
They would also have a much better ability to support a team financially than regional locations which would struggle without support from the AFL.
So if you were running the AFL where would you rather invest $200 million if you wanted a good ROI?
A) Tasmania and Canberra
B) Beijing and Delhi
Again the temptation is clear to see.
You might think there would be problems with the travel distance to Asia but some people are already thinking even further afield.
Geelong President Colin Carter has suggested to Gillon McLachlan that Cape Town should have a team in the AFL by 2030. So maybe Asia isn’t that far away after all.
His logic was that for a fraction of the cost of supporting the Suns and Giants the AFL could build up a player base in South Africa that would be larger than what he called “our markets in WA and SA”.
This sort of corporate language is increasingly common.
Asia could well be the next frontier for expansion.
You might not like hearing it but I think that’s where the AFL look like they are headed, especially when Kevin Sheedy is talking up India as the next big thing.
India and China represent a market of 2.7 billion people so even if only one out every thousand people tune in that’s still 2.7 million viewers. Or if one per cent tune in then it’s 27 million. Those numbers are hard to ignore.
I’m sure that it’s in the minds of those at AFL headquarters in Melbourne.
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