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It might be a relatively hilly Stage 3 of the Tour Down Under as the peloton takes the 144-kilometre trek from Glenelg to Victor Harbour, but a chance in the general classification is unlikely on a day for the strong men. Join The Roar for live coverage from 12:20pm (AEDT).
Yesterday, Richie Porte proved beyond all reasonable doubt that he is the most in-form rider in the race and is the red-hot favourite to take out the top spot in South Australia.
Defending champion Simon Gerrans was nowhere to be seen on the Stage 2 run into Paracombe, although teammate Esteban Chavez does look in good touch.
He rode to the line in third behind Movistar’s best hope in Gorka Izaguirre, while Australian Jay McCarthy, who has been active at the sprints, also proved his worth finishing fourth and keeping hopes of the Ochre jersey well alive.
Today’s stage sets out from the beachfront community of Glenelg, and trecks all the way along the coast for the 144-kilometre journey to Victor Harbour, although they do go slightly inland towards the end.
It’s actually quite a hilly day, although nothing like yesterday. What it will be is a burner on the legs and it’ll ensure many of the sprinters are knocked out by the time four laps of the up and down course around Victor Harbour are finished.
From Glenelg it’s almost straight uphill, then undulating through Aldinga all the way to the first obstacle of the day at Sellicks Hill, where the riders will take on a Category 2 climb.
From there, intermediate sprints come just a few kilometres after at Myponga and about halfway through the stage in the Inman Valley before the riders shape up for the final near-13-kilometre circuit.
The circuit itself has a few lumps and bumps and is barely ever flat, but looks can be deceiving and the stage profile makes things look a lot harder than they are.
The sprinters, particularly Caleb Ewan, might have a tough time trying to hang on, especially after the tough kilometres in their legs early in the stage, while others – Peter Sagan springs to mind – should thrive on the course.
Prediction
There is no question Sagan is the favourite, but earlier in the day expect to see BMC, Movistar and Sky working, particularly if the wind picks up and there is a chance of splitting the peloton up.
From there, it could be a two-way race at the finish between Sagan and Gerrans, although watch out for Ben Swift and my bolter for the day, Jay McCarthy.
No one should beat Sagan here though.
Be sure to join The Roar for live coverage of Stage 3 at the Tour Down Under from 12:20pm (AEDT) and don’t forget to add your own comments in the section below.
Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde