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Roger Federer vs Rafael Nadal 2017 Australian Open men's singles final preview and prediction

Roar Guru
28th January, 2017
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How far will Rafa go? (AFP PHOTO / FABRICE COFFRINI)
Roar Guru
28th January, 2017
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The stage is set for a blockbuster finish to this year’s Australian Open, with Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal to duke it out for the men’s championship tonight, twenty-four hours after the Williams sisters did battle in last night’s women’s decider.

Federer vs Nadal live scores, blog


The early exits of Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray opened the door for a potential blockbuster final between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal to eventuate, and that’s exactly what has transpired.

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The pair will resume their 13-year rivalry in tonight’s final, fifteen months since their last meeting in the final of the 2015 Swiss Indoors. Federer won that match in three sets to end a five-match losing streak against his Spanish nemesis.

But unlike most of their previous meetings in Major finals, their upcoming showdown in tonight’s final has come as a total surprise, given both men endured injury-riddled 2016 seasons and haven’t won a Major since Wimbledon 2012 (Federer) or the 2014 French Open (Nadal).

Entering the first Grand Slam tournament of the year, many questions were to be asked about whether Federer could readjust to the standards of playing five-set tennis after the Swiss Maestro called time on his 2016 season following his semi-final loss to Milos Raonic at Wimbledon last July.

His ranking had also dropped to 17th – his lowest ranking since 2002.

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Nadal, on the other hand, had just endured his worst ever Grand Slam year, failing to get past the fourth round at any of the Majors and withdrawing midway through the French Open due to a wrist injury which also forced him to miss Wimbledon.

But if anything, both men have proven their detractors wrong, each claiming the scalps of three top-fifteen seeds and dropping just five sets each en route to their first meeting in a Major final since the 2011 French Open.

Federer’s most impressive performance came in the third round when he handed Tomas Berdych his earliest defeat at Melbourne Park since 2010 by way of a straight-sets victory, while he was pushed to the limit by Kei Nishikori and Stan Wawrinka in the fourth round and semi-finals respectively.

It hasn’t been all smooth sailing for the 17-times Major champion, who suffered a mid-match meltdown against Wawrinka, playing what many commentators dubbed as “his worst ever set of tennis” in the third when he was two sets up.

Still, after losing the fourth set, he regrouped to progress to his first Australian Open final since 2010, when he defeated Andy Murray in straight sets.

Now, what awaits him will be his fourth attempt to claim Grand Slam title number eighteen, his tally of 17 having remained stalled since he won his seventh Wimbledon title in 2012, also by beating Murray in the final.

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Standing in his way of achieving just that is an all-too-familiar foe in Nadal, who also survived enduring five-setters against Alexander Zverev and Grigor Dimitrov in the third round and semi-finals, respectively.

Those aside, he enjoyed straight-forward wins over Florian Mayer, Marcos Baghdatis and Milos Raonic en route to his first final here since 2014, when he was upset by Stan Wawrinka in the decider.

That defeat prevented him from completing the double Career Grand Slam, as well as matching Pete Sampras’ tally of 14 Grand Slam titles (Sampras was in Melbourne that year in anticipation that the Spaniard would equal his mark) – he would eventually equal the American at the French Open later that year.

His semi-final win against Dimitrov evoked shades of his equally-as-epic five-set victory over Fernando Verdasco in 2009, which he then followed up by beating Federer in the championship match, which also went to five sets.

The Spaniard could win another Australian Open title in similar fashion, in the manner that he defeats Federer (again) in the decider, forty-eight hours after backing up from a five-set semi-final epic.

Dethroned champion Novak Djokovic also achieved the feat of winning both his semi-final and final in five sets, doing so in 2012 when he defeated Andy Murray and Nadal respectively.

That year’s final, as well as the 2009 decider between Nadal and Federer, will both go down as two of the greatest matches to ever be played at the Australian Open.

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Nadal’s win eight years ago saw him become the first Spaniard, male or female, to win the Australian Open, and prevented Federer from claiming a then record-equalling 14th Grand Slam title.

While the match will always be remembered for the high octane battle between (what was then) two of the best players in the world, it will also be remembered for the emotional post-match presentation in which the human side of both men were on exhibition as the failure of matching Pete Sampras’ record got to Federer.

Eight years on, all is set for what will be another intriguing battle between two of the greatest gladiators of tennis to decide the first men’s major champion for 2017.

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Here is the all-important information you need to know entering tonight’s Australian Open men’s final.

[17] Roger Federer (SUI) vs [9] Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Sunday, January 29
Not before 7:30pm
Rod Laver Arena

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Head-to-head
All matches: Nadal 23-11
At Grand Slams: Nadal 9-2
In Grand Slam finals: Nadal 6-2
At the Australian Open: Nadal 3-0
In all finals: Nadal 14-7

Last meeting: Federer won 6-3, 5-7, 6-3, final, 2015 Swiss Indoors
Last Grand Slam meeting: Nadal won 7-6 (7-4), 6-3, 6-3, semi-finals, 2014 Australian Open

Roger Federer’s road to the final
Round 1: defeated [Q] Jurgen Melzer (AUT) 7-5, 3-6, 6-2, 6-2
Round 2: defeated [Q] Noah Rubin (USA) 7-5, 6-3, 7-6 (7-3)
Round 3: defeated [10] Tomas Berdych (CZE) 6-2, 6-4, 6-4
Round 4: defeated [5] Kei Nishikori (JPN) 6-7 (4-7), 6-4, 6-1, 4-6, 6-3
Quarter-finals: defeated Mischa Zverev (GER) 6-1, 7-5, 6-2
Semi-finals: defeated [4] Stan Wawrinka (SUI) 7-5, 6-3, 1-6, 4-6, 6-3

Rafael Nadal’s road to the final
Round 1: defeated Florian Mayer (GER) 6-3, 6-4, 6-4
Round 2: defeated Marcos Baghdatis (CYP) 6-3, 6-1, 6-3
Round 3: defeated [24] Alexander Zverev (GER) 4-6, 6-3, 6-7 (5-7), 6-3, 6-2
Round 4: defeated [6] Gael Monfils (FRA) 6-3, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4
Quarter-finals: defeated [3] Milos Raonic (CAN) 6-4, 7-6 (9-7), 6-4
Semi-finals: defeated [15] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) 6-3, 5-7, 7-6 (7-5), 6-7 (4-7), 6-4

Stats that matter
* This will be Roger Federer’s sixth Australian Open final (4-1) and 28th Major final (17-10) overall, while for Rafael Nadal this will be his fourth Australian Open final (1-2) and 21st Major final (14-6) overall.
* This will be the ninth meeting between the pair in any Major final, but just the second at the Australian Open after 2009. Nadal leads this category 6-2, with Federer’s only two wins coming at Wimbledon in 2006 and 2007. This is their first meeting in a Major final since the 2011 French Open.
* This will be their fourth meeting at the Australian Open. Nadal has won three previous meetings; the epic 2009 final, as well as semi-finals in 2012 and 2014.
* This will be their 35th meeting overall, but first since the final of the 2015 Swiss Indoors. They did not meet in 2016; this is the only calendar year to date in which they did not meet since their first meeting back in 2004.
* This will be their 22nd meeting in any final; Nadal leads this category 14-7.
* Federer will be shooting for his 18th Grand Slam title, which would extend the men’s record which he currently holds, while Nadal will be shooting for his 15th. Both men are currently enduring their longest Grand Slam title droughts, having not saluted since Wimbledon 2012 and the 2014 French Open respectively.
* Federer is aiming to become the lowest-ranked male Australian Open champion since Thomas Johansson in 2002, and just the second 17th seeded Major champion anywhere since Pete Sampras won the 2002 US Open.
* Nadal is aiming to become the first man in Open Era history to win each of the Grand Slam tournaments at least twice.
* A win for Nadal would also see him move into outright second (only behind Federer) on the men’s Grand Slam leaderboard. It would also see him complete a huge turnaround from last year, where he lost in the first round and ended up with the “wooden spoon”.
* The last man to complete the aforementioned turnaround was Petr Korda in 1998, who won the title twelve months after losing in the first round to Marcelo Rios; ironically, he would defeat Rios in the final.

Prediction
Rafael Nadal in five sets.

You can also vote on my Twitter handle who you think will win:

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