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With the squads now looked at, and best guesses laid down, it’s time to look at the Australian conference a little more closely. I’ll take a look at the five local teams, starting today with the Western Force.
A note on the predicted conference order, which you’ll have deducted will now be the order of previews, too. I made the comment on Tuesday that though I’ve suggested Reds-Waratahs-Rebels-Brumbies-Force as the finishing order in 2017, I think the Australian conference will actually be quite close. I could just as easily see it finishing Waratahs-Rebels-Reds-Force-Brumbies.
In short, don’t take the prediction literally, Force fans. I see a lot of upside out of the west this season, and I’m genuinely excited about what might come of it.
With a new coach, a community ownership model, and now a naming rights sponsor, there’s plenty to like.
Forwards
My sincere thanks to Roarer and noted ‘stats guy’ ForceFan who brought the update news to Tuesday’s first-glance piece. New recruit and lock Ben Matwijow will miss the entire season after having neck surgery last week following a training injury, while no.8 and 2017 skipper Ben McCalman and flanker Angus Cottrell will also miss the start of the season with injuries.
Matwijow is a big loss, as he was lured across the country with the view of being the lineout general to go alongside Adam Coleman’s physicality; the classic 4 and 5 locks, so the plan went.
Matt Philip and Ross Haylett-Petty will now be battling for the starting berth alongside Coleman, and it was notable that both started in the Force hit out on the Gold Coast on Monday night against the Melbourne Rebels.
With McCalman and Cottrell out for a few weeks, there will be plenty of competition for the 6 and 8 jerseys now, too. Kane Koteka and Brynard Stander started there in the trial, but there are still the likes of Onehunga Havili and Isi Naisarani in the wings more than willing to have a crack. The Force could nearly name three full backrows, and they’d all be pretty handy.
Up front, ex-Queensland prop Ben Daley and Wallaby-capped Tetera Faulkner are still easing their way back from injury, and the Force will be in a better place once they’re fit. Pek Cowan started alongside the very promising and wonderfully-named Shambeckler Vui this week, and I think that’s a bit of guide to Dave Wessels’ early thinking.
At hooker, well the Force are blessed with quality options. Club Captain Heath Tessmann brings the experience, and local product Harry Scoble the youth and excitement, but when you throw Tatafu Polota-Nau and his 68 Tests and upwards of 140 Super Rugby games into the mix, you’ve got the very scenario the term ‘blessed with options’ was coined for. And I haven’t even mentioned the ‘axe murderer’, Anaru Rangi, yet.
Backs
The halves will be interesting, for mine. Clearly, Jonno Lance is the preferred flyhalf option, and if he stays fit this season he could well add a cap and jersey to the Wallabies training kit he earned late on the Spring Tour last year. He’s a quality defender and has a very good tactical kicking game, both of which become crucial in Super Rugby.
But who starts the season feeding him the ball? If Wessels opts for experience, then Ian Prior probably gets another shot. But if it’s youth and a bit zip he wants, then maybe the Force will back Ryan Louwrens from the Round 1. Either way, and as good as he was for a young team trying to rebuild, it’s hard to see Alby Mathewson will be missed too much.
I must admit, I’m still surprised the Force agreed to Ben Tapuai’s request for a release, allowing him to switch to Premiership side Bath late last year. Tapuai’s combination in the NRC with former Gloucester centre Billy Meakes was as good as it was immediate, and the way they both clicked with Lance and Luke Morahan was great to watch.
But Tapuai won’t be there in 2017, meaning a new midfield combination is needed pronto. Meakes played 12 in the Rebels trial, with Perth local and former Canterbury NRL player Curtis Rona at outside. Now-former Brumbies utility Robbie Coleman shapes another option at 12, as does Luke Burton, though I expect size in the 12-13 channel will be the way the go, with plenty of creative options on the inside and outside.
Morahan and Wallabies fullback-in-awaiting Dane Haylett-Petty will obviously cover two of the three spots at the back, but who fills the remaining spot will be interesting. Marcel Brache has been there for a long time and will be a known entity, but there was plenty to like about Semisi Masirewa last year, too. Coleman would be a wing option, but one to watch will be Alex Newsome, who the Force only just announced a few weeks ago.
Newsome went from promising Australian under 20s player to NSW Country Eagles star in the NRC in a matter of weeks last season, and he’s got some serious pace about him.
Key player
It’s obviously Lance, because the shapes the way the Force play in both attack and defence. Peter Grant has been a great servant for the Force, but it’s clear that he doesn’t offer the same kind of creativity that Lance does, or that the long-suffering Sea of Blue want to watch – or fork out their hard-earned to own a slice of, for that matter.
The Force’s season will rise and fall on Lance’s own season. If he stays fits and plays like we all know he can, then the promise that plenty of us can see in this Western Force squad will amount to competition points. If he has another injury-plagued year… well, I think we know how that ends.
First five rounds
Waratahs (away), Reds, Brumbies (away), Crusaders (away), Blues (away)
No such thing as a soft launch in 2017. Four away games in the first five weeks is rough enough, but when three of them all finished in the top half last season – and the Blues weren’t that far away, either – then that’s an all new level of rough.
But if the Force are good enough, they find three wins there. They’ve got a good record in Sydney (surprisingly good, actually), they will want to remind everyone that the Reds aren’t the only team on the rise, and the Brumbies already look like they’re in for a tough season. And if they won two of those three, then they’d back themselves to bring points home from New Zealand, too.
And that’s how they should be thinking in 2017.