The first Group 1 of the calendar year is upon us, the CF Orr Stakes at Caulfield, to be run over 1400m under weight-for-age conditions.
On ratings, it has attracted a very even field, with four horses sharing equal top rating of 113, and another couple only one point below. Hopefully we see an evenly contested race, with many chances at the clock tower and a driving finish.
Malaguerra appears to have won the battle for favouritism over Black Heart Bart, two of the four horses that are second-up after resuming in the Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley.
Malaguerra won that race with authority from Black Heart Bart who wasn’t as suited at 1200m after a spring Cox Plate campaign, particularly around the Valley. Palentino was five lengths from the winner in fourth, and Turn Me Loose was further back again. The latter two will be struggling to turn the tables on the exacta from that race.
Malaguerra has proven himself a serious class of racehorse in the last 18 months. Since resuming from a spell in the spring of 2015, he has won nine of 14 races, including two at Group 1 WFA, and is now arguably in the best half dozen horses in the country.
Black Heart Bart also has claims to be in that group, and did beat Malaguerra home by four and a half lengths when these two last met over 1400m at WFA. Black Heart Bart’s Group 1 record under Darren Weir stands at three wins and five seconds from nine attempts, and he did comfortably win the Memsie Stakes at this track and distance in the spring.
One of these two favourites should be winning, but there are plenty of others to create interest.
Lucky Hussler is on the third line of betting, and will be given a chance after resuming gamely and somewhat unluckily in the Magic Millions. I can’t personally have him, given his best form is 12 months behind him.
Ecuador has racing fitness and winning form on his side, as the only horse with two runs under his belt here, both of them victories. He’s been an honest battler at this level his entire career, but has certainly found a couple of lengths in his seven year old year.
The rest of the field are all first-up, with some class horses among them.
Jameka was the most emphatic Caulfield Cup winner since Might and Power, and her class will carry her a long way. It won’t surprise to see her in the finish at all, as many a good horse improves between preparations after a big Group 1 win.
Awesome Rock won the old Mackinnon/new Emirates on the final day of the Flemington carnival in spring, a deserved Group 1 WFA win at 2000m after being unfairly denied the Australian Cup earlier in the year. First-up isn’t really his thing, but he should run well without being a winning chance.
He’s Our Rokkii picked up a deserved Group 1 with his Toorak Handicap win in the spring, and graduates to WFA here. He’s unbeaten at this track and distance in lesser grade, but is one of the better sprinter/milers in the country and can measure up to this level.
Miss Rose De Lago tends to mix her form, and it would be a surprise to see her beat all of these. The betting suggests Arod faces a task, but the magic of Chris Waller and some of his European form gives him some claims.
The most intriguing runner, as they often are in WFA races at this time of year, is the three year old, Caulfield Guineas winner Divine Prophet. The Hawkes camp are following the same path as their previous Guineas winner All Too Hard, who resumed with an Orr Stakes victory in 2013 after his three year old spring campaign.
Malaguerra should push over form a wide barrier, and look to slot in behind the speed as he did last start. Arod and Turn Me Loose may hold forward positions from their inside draws. Miss Rose De Lago looks the obvious leader, and Ecuador won’t be too far away. The speed map sets up for every horse to have their chance.
Selections: 1.Malaguerra 2.Divine Prophet 3.Black Heart Bart 4.Jameka
Of course, Saturday is also about the return of Winx, in the Apollo Stakes at Randwick where, Hartnell aside, she’ll tackle the usual assortment of Sydney C-graders and stayers.
It’s truly humbling for Australian racing fans to bask in the glow of Winx so soon after Black Caviar’s career, and we all look forward to seeing her in action once more.
Hartnell will be looking to best her at some stage over 1600m-2000m on a wet track if she doesn’t avoid them, and Dibayani is a very honest horse when in Sydney, and will be in the top four somewhere.
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