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In this era of talent and salary-cap clarity, what goes up must come down. In the second of my NRL season previews, I take a look at four top teams set to decline.
Brisbane Broncos
The Brisbane Broncos have featured in the post-season 15 times since the turn of the century. Their fans are so conditioned to success that they’ve developed an almost Pavlovian response, salivating at the very mention of finals football. But have the Juicy Fruit on standby, because Brisbane’s season might be cut short.
In years gone by, the Broncos were characterised by a dominant forward pack and stout goal-line defence. I struggle to see how the 2017 version will continue this tradition.
Corey Parker’s departure should not be downplayed. Celebrated perhaps, but not downplayed. Parker was captain, first choice goal kicker, a workhorse in defence and a constant threat to off-load the football.
His incredible durability and stamina allowed the Broncos greater flexibility around their forward rotation. Parker’s retirement coupled with the loss of Jarrod Wallace means longer minutes for forwards accustomed to short bursts and good breaks.
And what do we make of Ben Hunt this year? After pulling a Herschelle Gibbs in 2015, Hunt struggled with confidence for much of the season. He flashed here and there, but too often his performances were reminiscent of an ageing Craig Field. Perhaps the Dragons were watching tape of the wrong season.
The decision not to re-sign Hunt was understandable, but Brisbane’s other free agent moves were mystifying. Bennett must have hopped in his DeLorean to fill out the roster.
First stop was 2010, where he found a young Kiwi captain with a Golden Boot and a dazzling side step. Then it was off to 2012, where a hulking Tautau Moga was the next big thing, Korbin Sims was a promising junior, and David Mead was faster than a Darius Boyd interview.
But sadly for Bennett, it’s 2017. Benji is slow and ineffectual, Moga has been dogged by three ACL tears, David Mead’s best years are behind him and Korbin Sims… remains Korbin Sims. Counting on these men to make significant contributions appears bold.
Make no mistake, these aren’t your older brother’s Brisbane Broncos. Wayne’s men are going to need a little luck and a lot of Anthony Milford if they hope to contend. And even then, I don’t think it will be enough.
North Queensland Cowboys
North Queensland will make the finals in 2017, so let’s get that out of the way from the outset. As long as Johnathan Thurston remains upright, they’ll be just fine.
But are they legitimate premiership threats? I’m not so sure.
North Queensland’s biggest asset over the last couple of years, apart from stifling humidity, has been their forward rotation. Rather than staggering the breaks of James Tamou, Matt Scott and Jason Taumalolo, Paul Green often removed all three shortly before half time.
After a brief spell and a gargle of pickle juice, the trio would re-enter the fray, usually to devastating effect. Taumalolo proved particularly damaging, as tired opposition forwards found him harder to tackle than simultaneous equations.
Green was able to employ this tactic thanks to quality and depth in the forwards. But North Queensland has fare-welled the likes of Tamou, Ben Hannant and Glen Hall in recent seasons, leaving them short on size and experience in the middle.
As was the case with Manly last season, the petite North Queensland pack risks being bullied by more robust opposition forwards, which can limit the time and space available for their halves to operate. Just ask Daly Cherry-Evans.
But while their forward depth is concerning, North Queensland’s spine remains tingling. With offence intended towards Braith Anasta, the trio of Michael Morgan, Lachlan Coote and Jake Granville are the strongest supporting cast of Thurston’s career.
The individual brilliance of these four men will win the Cowboys a lot of games, but they can’t do it alone. Without adequate support from the forwards, Thurston and co will only take the Cowboys so far.
2017 could be set to pan out just like the Cowboys of old. Without a forward pack to “lay the platform”, a heavy burden will fall on Thurston. He will be forced to manufacture magic, and will end up overplaying his hand.
The Cowboys will be a dangerous team, capable of beating any side on their day, but a lack of consistency will see them slip to the fringes of the top eight.
Cronulla Sharks
Up, up Cronulla. God I’m sick of hearing that song. Luckily we only have to listen to it every 50 years or so. But I will admit, in a year that saw sporting hoodoos smashed around the globe, it was nice to see the Sharkies finally win their maiden premiership.
Now the even bigger challenge, can they go back to back? I have my doubts.
A big reason is the loss of Michael Ennis. The veteran hooker was more popular in the shire than high vis singlets and 500mL cans of Mother. His leadership and professionalism won’t be easily replaced.
The Sharks certainly have options at hooker, but when Daniel Mortimer is competing for a starting spot on your roster, you’ve got more questions than answers.
Many saw the departure of Ben Barba as equally damaging, but I tend to disagree. While Barba enjoyed a stellar 2016, the Sharks are well served at fullback.
The ongoing circus surrounding Barba became an unnecessary distraction and jeopardised the team’s chances of extending Valentine Holmes. The young Kangaroo eventually re-signed, but the Sharks took an awful risk supporting an inconsistent player who struggles to keep his nose clean.
Despite these losses, Cronulla remains formidable. The pack has maintained their rating of Tom Selleck on the scale of ruggedness, while the backline still boasts speed and strike power at every position.
James Maloney has recaptured his Origin form, Jack Bird is poised for super-stardom, and Chad Townsend continues pull off a credible impersonation of a first grade footballer.
But for me, the biggest hurdle facing Shane Flanagan this season will be attitude. The Sharks have some big personalities and even bigger egos. There is just no telling how they will handle the success of 2016.
I worry about the motivation of Paul Gallen, about the focus of Jack Bird, and about the temperament of Wade Graham. And then there’s Andrew Fifita. After the turmoil that followed his wristband calligraphy, not even Basement Jaxx could predict Fifita’s headspace.
The bottom line is that Cronulla still has a winning side, but may struggle to recapture a winning mentality. I expect them to make the eight but progress no further.
Melbourne Storm
People have been predicting the demise of the Melbourne Storm for over a decade. It’s always the same story.
Cameron Smith’s bound to get injured. Teams will learn how to defend against Cooper Cronk. Craig Bellamy’s magic wand will stop working.
And all the Storm do is keep winning.
Bellamy has done an outstanding job of maintaining a high standard of football despite his Lazy Susan approach to recruitment.
As risky as it is to say this, 2017 will finally be the year Melbourne feel the pinch.
Let’s start with Billy Slater. Up until recently, it was widely believed that the indestructible Queenslander was created by Cyberdyne Systems and sent back in time to ruin State of Origin for a generation of NSW fans.
But the legendary fullback has been limited to only eight games over the past two years. He is on track for an early season return, but serious questions remain over his durability and effectiveness.
The loss of Blake Green is also a significant concern. Playing a similar role to Gareth Widdop, Green was the perfect foil for Cooper Cronk.
Cameron Munster is a more than handy replacement, but his limited kicking game and unrefined organisational skills will increase the burden on Cronk.
Add in the loss of Marika Koroibete and Kevin Proctor, arguably two of Melbourne’s best in 2016, and the Storm are looking shakier than a bride about to be married at first sight.
However debilitating these personnel losses may sound, it’s easy to dismiss them as white noise. The Storm lose a handful of key players every year, yet still qualify for the finals.
So long as the Big Three remain, the common belief is that Bellamy will transform a couple of park footballers, and she’ll be apples. But let’s not compare apples with oranges.
This is not the Melbourne Storm of 2012, when Cronk, Smith and Slater were at the height of their powers. As durable and everlasting as these men have been, a tyre only has so much tread.
I’m not naïve enough to predict that Melbourne will miss the finals, but I have serious doubts about them replicating the success of last season. The Storm will find a spot in the top eight but 2017 may be remembered as the beginning of the end.
Next week I’ll explore four ascending teams that are still another year away from realising their potential.