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2016 was supposed to be the year the team from the northern beaches was back.
After an awful 2015, the ever maligned club had gone through a roster turnover, recruiting an actual forward pack and getting young talent like Dylan Walker.
A lot of pundits including me thought they were destined for the top eight, with many putting them in the top four.
But they were a bigger disappointment to their fans than I am to my parents.
It turns out, having a squad with one half in it and no depth in any position isn’t smart when half of your roster is over 30. Manly was littered with injuries, form slumps and off-field controversies last year, showing glimpses of form occasionally but usually falling flat.
However in 2017, Manly come in with a larger roster overhaul, with most of the stalwarts from their decade of dominance gone.
Strengths
As stated previously, one of the big problems for Manly was a lack of halves outside of their back-flipping giraffe, Daly Cherry-Evans. The play-making reliance on Cherry-Evans also meant it was easy to derail the Manly offence by simply shutting him down.
When he went down, Manly had to make do with players like Walker, Jamie Lyon and Apisai Koroisau.
But now that Manly has recruited Blake Green, Cameron Cullen and Jackson Hastings, these problems have been addressed, which will take the pressure off of DCE and allow him to show why he demanded so much money back in 2015.
Green especially will be a great foil to DCE as a solid, calm and experienced half that doesn’t overplay his hand.
When it comes to fullbacks, I have previously referenced French and Mitchell. While those two young guns look to have the goods, I firmly believe that Tom Trbojevic is the best of the three.
He was thrust into fullback much earlier than people expected but still flourished, and was by far Manly’s best player last year. He led the team in running metres, line breaks, tackle breaks and also had their second highest try assists and tries.
All while carrying an injury through the season, meaning he can and probably will be even better this year.
His brother, Jake Trbojevic, is certainly no pushover either. In his first full season in the 13 jersey he shone. He is already the leader of the forward pack at just 22 and has represented Australia.
Like all forwards, he will only get better with age.
This might be a controversial opinion, but most of Manly’s forwards are underrated. Martin Taupau is also an excellent player. People say he had a bad 2016; those people are wrong.
He had the most running metres of all the Manly forwards, had their highest offload numbers and made the second most tackle breaks for the Maroon and Whites even with his suspensions.
Meanwhile, Addin Fonua-Blake is huge and will develop into a great prop in a few years, Brenton Lawrence when fit is pure quality and Lloyd Perrett has potential.
The only truly weak link is Nate Myles since he is more broken down than Steve Matai, as everyone else at least has potential.
Weaknesses
Risky buys are not uncommon in the NRL. A lot of teams, usually currently successful ones, will make a strange recruitment decision on a player with potential or one that has been great but is terribly out of form.
These players are often cheap, and if your club is in good shape they’ll have decent replacements in their top 25, like Tony Williams to Cronulla or Dave Taylor to the Raiders.
However, these moves aren’t ideal for struggling clubs. Nonetheless, they may as well make up 50% of the buys Manly have made for this year.
Hastings, Akuila Uate, Lloyd Perrett, and Curtis Sironen are all risk buys. Though you might think there is more chance of one of them turning it around – which is true – they are still all taking up space in the top 25.
If all of these players are duds, then Manly just wasted a fair portion of their roster.
Manly have put themselves in a position where they need at least two of these risks to work out or they are stuffed, and I don’t know if this will happen.
What happens if none of these players improve? Manly’s chances of doing well are done.
Additionally, the player turnaround at Manly means that it will take a while for the side to gel, since many players have barely played a season together, if that. The loss of their former captain Jamie Lyon will also be huge.
Summary
It is hard to pinpoint an exact spot for Manly to finish.
Their side isn’t that bad. I like their halves options and some of their forwards. Their centre pairing of Walker and Brian Kelly has a lot of speed to it and could cause headaches on the edges.
But there are just too many question marks surrounding this team. Can they gel better than they did last year? Will players like Uate and Sironen flourish with the change of environment, or will they continue to flounder? How will they handle the loss of experience? Can Trent Barrett even coach?
With this in mind, even as a Manly fan, I can’t put them in the eight. They could certainly make it if everything goes right for them and their risks pay off, but I don’t think that will happen.
I predict they will finish 11th, though they could end up anywhere from seventh-13th. They will struggle in the first half of the year and then finish it on fire, but they won’t win enough to make the eight.
2016 finish: 13th
Predicted 2017 finish: 11th
Transfers
Gains: Frank Winterstein, Shaun Lane, Blake Green, Cameron Cullen, Akuila Uate, Curtis Sironen, Lloyd Perrett, Jackson Hastings, Brian Kelly, Jonathon Wright, Jarrad Kennedy, Joey Lussick
Losses: Jamie Lyon, Tim Moltzen, Tom Symonds, Siosia Vave, Liam Knight, Nathan Green, Blake Leary, Isaac John, Jayden Hodges, Josh Starling, Jamie Buhrer, Brayden Williame, Matt Parcell, Feleti Mateo, Luke Burgess, Brett Stewart, Steve Matai.
Full-strength team
1. Tom Trbojevic
2. Jorge Taufua
3. Dylan Walker
4. Brian Kelly
5. Peter Schuster/Akuila Uate
6. Blake Green
7. Daly Cherry-Evans
8. Darcy Lussick
9. Apisai Koroisau
10. Addin Fonua-Blake
11. Curtis Sironen
12. Martin Taupau
13. Jake Trbojevic
14. Cameron Cullen
15. Shaun Lane
16. Brenton Lawrence
17. Nate Myles/Lloyd Perrett
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