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The NBL semi-finals are finally here and it’s a top-four no one could have predicted at the start of the competition.
We saw the closest season in history, with minor premiers the Adelaide 36ers taking on the Illawarra Hawks in what should be an entertaining battle.
The 36ers were possibly the exception to the rule of it being the closest competition in history, with the South Australian club running away from the pack to lock up the minor premiership with a few rounds to go.
But their run to the top wasn’t an easy or straight forward one. They spent the first half of the season struggling to go anywhere apart from the bottom of the table.
The Hawks were in a similar position during the early stages of the season and at one point it wasn’t sounding all that silly to say the two sides who are playing in the semi-finals would finish seventh and eighth.
Of course, the nature of the competition this year was that no predictions should ever have been made until there was about one second to go in the final game of the season, because it was all going to get flipped on its head.
For Adelaide, their rise to the top was phenomenal as they at one point had won 13 of their last 14 to wrap up the minor premiership with weeks to spare. Jerome Randle had booked his MVP award – which was confirmed on Monday night – with a month to go and Nathan Sobey was untouchable as the most improved player in the competition.
Simply put, Adelaide were an incredibly exciting team to watch and it wasn’t just Randle – who finished third in both points and assists for the season.
Sobey was most improved player for a reason, and Daniel Johnson has another strong season as he finished fourth in the competition for rebounds and was a general threat on offence from all ranges – but certainly most threatening on the glass.
Matt Hodgson too had a breakout season playing quality consistent basketball and locking a spot down in the starting side for the 36ers after showing glimpses of potential as a premier big man last season.
Terrance Ferguson had a slow start to the season, but that was expected from the import fresh out of high school. He came into his own late in the season as the 36ers went on their outrageous winning streak, securing a spot in the starting side like Hodgson.
It came as a surprise he was able to lock down the starting three spot as well, with Mitch Creek out of action during the early going. The experience he brought to the side on his return, and how he was able to take a bench role was just another part of the 36ers success story.
There are all no questions to be asked about just how good of a coach Joey Wright is. To bring the team from bottom to top and get them firing on all cylinders was a magnificent effort from the former premiership-winning coach.
The Hawks had a lot of similarities about their season to Adelaide, but at the same time they battled and had to qualify by wiping the undermanned Brisbane Bullets off the court in the final match.
Of course, qualifying for the playoffs by winning in the last round of competition wasn’t something unique to the Hawks with all three sides apart from Adelaide having to do so.
The turning point for Illawarra’s season was having Rotnei Clarke drop back to the bench and play a sixth man role. While it didn’t limit his minutes on court, it had an enormous increase on his offensive production, with the former MVP winner guiding his side to some brilliant victories.
While it could be said the Hawks should have qualified for the playoffs a little earlier after they dropped a game to Melbourne United in the open air, they were running second and one of the more consistent teams in the league throughout the second half of the season during what was an insanely difficult season to remain consistent.
Even though Clarke is the key man coming off the bench for the Hawks, they need a full team effort to stand up to the Hawks and avoid starting the game on the back foot, which could kill any chance they have of victory.
For that reason, Mitch Norton needs to lead the side from the get go. His aggression in attacking the paint has been pleasing to watch this season. The former Townsville Crocodiles point guard has been consistent in scoring 8.5 points per game, dishing out assists and being a creative weapon for the side.
Kevin White has also had a breakout season, with his hard-nosed defensive style winning plenty of fans. While he has been inconsistent on attack, he will be one of the keys to getting that side of the Hawks game over the line here, even if it’s just setting screens and allowing for plays to happen around him.
Even though the Hawks are the second-best offensive team in the competition, the pressure will be on. They have scored 100 less across the season and must have the better of the two defences to win.
The defensive key man is AJ Ogilvy. He has to not only lock down the paint and stop Jerome Randle and his aggressive ways, but stay out of foul trouble and do most of the work for the Hawks on the glass against the Hodgson and Johnson combinatiion.
If Ogilvy doesn’t get support from Nic Kay in this field across the three-game series, then it might be curtains for the Hawks.
The season series saw Illawarra take a 3-1 victory, holding their home court and taking one of the earlier season games on the road – the 36ers though, are a very different team now to what they were earlier in the season.
This is going to be an intriguing series between the two best offensive teams in the competition. Adelaide have hit the rocks at the wrong time, and karma could bite them for what seemed like trying to avoid the Hawks in the finals by losing to Cairns in Cairns last Thursday.
Instead, it backfired on them and they find themselves taking on the Hawks. Illawarra have finals experience, after making it through last year, which will help, but playing two games on the road certainly won’t.
What this series may come down to is the battle of offensive production between the MVP Jerome Randle and sixth man of the year Rotnei Clarke. However, more than that it will be about the defence – which team can restrict scoring.
One burst of good defence could well win these games, as opposed to one burst of good offence – that is going to be required for the full 40 minutes, and not just a few here or there.
It’s going to be entertaining and it’s going to be high-scoring, however it just feels like Adelaide will rediscover their touch and neither team will be able to win on the road.
Adelaide 2 – Illawarra 1.
Key series info
Game 1: Thursday, February 16 at Titanium Security Arena, Adelaide (7:30pm AEDT)
Game 2: Sunday, February 19 at WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong (3pm AEDT)
Game 3*: Thursday, February 23 at Titanium Security Arena, Adelaide (7:30pm AEDT)
*- if required
TV: All games live Fox Sports 503, Game 2 live SBS
Online: All games live NBL.TV
Betting: 36ers $1.30, Hawks $3.32Adelaide 36ers (likely)
Point guard: Jerome Randle
Shooting guard: Nathan Sobey
Small forward: Terrance Ferguson
Power forward: Daniel Johnson
Centre: Matt Hodgson
Bench: Eric Jacobsen, Brendan Teys, Mitch Creek (c), Nelson Larkins, Adam Doyle, Anthony DrmicIllawarra Hawks (likely)
Point guard: Mitch Norton
Shooting guard: Marvelle Harris
Small forward: Kevin White
Power forward: Nick Kay
Centre: AJ Ogilvy
Bench: Rotnei Clarke, Tim Coenraad, Cody Ellis, Oscar Forman, Michael Hollyfield, Rhys Martin (c)
Don’t forget The Roar will have live coverage of every match from the NBL finals series, so don’t forget to check it out.
Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde