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I’ve said before that 2017 needs to be the year the Melbourne Rebels take the next step, and having now seen a little bit of them this season, my opinion has only strengthened.
Though they looked like taking said step last year, the familiar mid-season wobbles set in and eventually consigned them to a finish at the bottom end of the mid-table teams. The Rebels finished 12th in 2016, equalling the seven wins from their record 2015 season where they finished 10th.
Read Brett’s previous Super Rugby previews, with the Brumbies to come fourth and the Force to finish fifth.
But while this side still has youth on its side, they are suddenly blessed with experience. They’ve got an entire team of players with more than two full seasons for Super Rugby under their belt, not to mention a guy like Reece Hodge who’s gone from NRC player to Wallaby in twelve months.
The Rebels have seen enough to know how Super Rugby works, and this needs to be the season their potential delivers results.
Forwards
Sure, it was just a trial, but the Rebels’ loss in Tuesday night’s trial against the Queensland Reds showed that the Rebels still have a fair bit of work to, however. Their scrum remains an issue, as was the case in 2016, and surely they know by now that breakdown domination alone won’t catapult them into the playoffs.
“Obviously, when you’re losing and getting dominated in any particular area it’s a concern, but we’ll go back and get that fixed and come back better,” Coach Tony McGahan said, both ominously and optimistically, after the Ballymore hitout. No pressure Rebels, but you’ve got a week.
The Rebels backrow remains a clear strength, and even without Sean McMahon for the first month or six weeks of the competition, Jordy Reid and Colby Fainga’a have proven their quality over several seasons. Add to that the very promising news that Lopeti Timani is very much back in the backrow plans of the Rebels, and there’s plenty to be happy about.
But the tight five is going to be where Melbourne wins and loses games. Toby Smith, Laurie Weeks, and Cruze Ah Nau have been around to enough what’s required of them now, and the same goes for James Hanson at hooker. And there’s some other promising young front rowers in all positions too.
At lock, it’s a big year – particularly in the scrum – for the likes of Steve Cummins, Sam Jeffries, and Culum Retallick. Alex Toolis showed some promise during the NRC, too. They’ll be judged on their lineout prowess, but their scrummaging is where they can make big inroads, and where the Rebels go from being a mid-table side to a side ready for the playoffs.
Backs
The Rebels remain blessed at scrumhalf with Nic Stirzaker and Ben Meehan, with Stirzaker edging closer to the Wallabies jersey most of thought he’d already have worn by now, and Meehan showing a surprising versatility in making a good fist of flyhalf during the NRC.
And with Jack Debreczeni now seemingly a fullback option as much as (or even more so than) flyhalf, there’s some genuine dynamism developing. The recruitment of Jackson Garden-Bachop from Wellington and ex-Waratah, ex-Crusader Ben Volavola now only underlines Debreczeni’s switch.
And the big winner there could be Reece Hodge. After a meteoric rise in 2016, and a season in which he wore more different numbers than The Count on Sesame Street, all signs are pointing to Hodge finding a home in the Rebels’ backline at inside centre. And the sooner this happens, the better off both the Rebels and the Wallabies will be.
Out wide is where the excitement is, and if the Rebels aren’t building a game plan around creating space for Sefanaia Naivalu and Marika Koroibete… well, they’d be mad. It’s genuinely exciting to think what these two could do, and I’m quite looking forward to watching how well they’re unleashed.
Key player
There’s good arguments to be made about Stirzaker and even Garden-Bachop occupy this spot, but for me, I reckon it’s Lopeti Timani, and I hope it’s in the no.8 jersey.
The Roar communally implored Michael Cheika to pick and then play Timani last season, and when it finally happened, you could hear the collective, “See, we told you so!”. Now restored at the back (or maybe side) of the Rebels scrum, this is the season for Timani to build on that international experience and become that bullocking ball-carrier he can be. And if he’s doing that for the Rebels, they’ll have all the front-foot ball they could ever want.
First five rounds
Blues, Hurricanes (away), bye, Chiefs, Waratahs.
It’s funny sort of a start to the season for the Rebels, with a Thursday night game to start, and an early bye. And after these five games, they’ve got the Highlanders away and another bye.
As I said of the Brumbies on Tuesday, the Rebels start defines their season. They should be looking to win all their home games this season, and I think if they can be going into their second bye with four wins, then that maiden playoffs berth will be well and truly in the 2017 frame.