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In yet another surprise from the closest NBL season in the history of the competition, the Cairns Taipans booked home-court advantage for the semi-final series with a second-place finish.
They will battle defending premiers the Perth Wildcats for a spot in the big dance.
While the other semi-final series, between the Adelaide 36ers and Illawarra Hawks, will be full of offence, this one sees the two best defensive sides squaring off.
The Taipans were the surprise packets this season, although many of their fans thought that 2016-17 would bring them something good.
It wasn’t looking that way early on though, as they fell to the bottom of the table. But there was always something there for Cairns, something that said they were going to climb when it mattered most.
The live ladder didn’t suit them either, given they always had games up their sleeve and played four double-headers in a row to close the season. This saw the Taipans pick up enough wins to come into the last round just outside the top four, but with a double-header against the Adelaide 36ers, chances of qualifying looked slim.
However, they turned it on in Cairns and with some favourable rotatations from Adelaide – like leaving Jerome Randle on the bench for most of the last quarter – the Taipans came home strongly to grab the win.
When New Zealand and Perth beat Melbourne and Sydney respectively the following night, it confirmed the Taipans’ place in the semi-finals. The only question left was whether they were going to play with a home court advantage or hit the road, and who they were going to take on.
Another win, this time on the road against Adelaide, confirmed Cairns would finish in second spot, with their opponents eventually determined to be the Wildcats, who beat Melbourne on the road in a thrilling close to the season.
Taking on Perth will be a more difficult proposition than hosting the Hawks, but nonetheless the Taipans will be ecstatic to end up with a home final.
In what has been announced as his final season, Mark Worthington has been a key man for the Taipans. He finally grew into their system, but holding the second-best defensive record in the competition – and conceding only 50 points more than the Wildcats for the season – can’t be laughed at.
Worthington has led from the front at both ends of the floor, but the true star has been American import Travis Trice. The point guard has averaged almost 15 points per game and had plenty to do offensively. He has had some quiet games, but when he turns it on it’s a pleasure to watch. Trice has put up a few games with point tallies in the high 20s, and it’s little surprise the Taipans won most of them.
Trice has been backed up at the point by Jarrad Weeks, especially when he was asked to stand up and start after Trice was injured. His role here, containing a combination of Damian Martin and Jarrod Kenny, goes up a notch.
Nnanna Egwu has also been strong, combining with ‘outback Shaq’ Nate Jawai in a brilliant big man combination.
As for the Wildcats, they have been a little off the mark this season. It’s not as if they have played terrible hoops, but the defending premiers were lucky to make the finals after a tough start to the season, some injuries, and a massive losing streak through the middle.
Martin sitting on the sidelines didn’t help, but they were struggling for consistency even with their skipper on the court, and with a big road trip through the middle of the season dropped to the bottom of the ladder at one point.
They eventualy got back on track and a thumping of the Sydney Kings, as well as that nail-biting win over Melbourne in the last round ensured their third-place finish.
As mentioned above, Martin has been the key for Perth, who have built their offence off a strong defence all season. It’s the defence that has fallen over at various points though and when it does, their offence – even with stars Case Prather and Bryce Cotton in the fold – looks schoolboy level at best.
To put it simply, there have been times this year when their only plan of attack has been ‘pass it to Prather and let’s see what happens’.
While Martin is the key to defence, Prather is the key to offence, and worryingly for the Wildcats, before he dropped a big tally of points on Melbourne on the weekend, his production had really fallen off a cliff.
It looked like the American small forward was struggling with injury, so was the game against Melbourne was a one-off, or a return to form for Prather?
Questions have also been raised about whether Prather’s impact was lessened because he hasn’t touched the ball as much, with new import Bryce Cotton doing plenty.
It’s not hard to see why though, when Cotton lit up the competition from outside the arc and won the scoring award for the league, averaging 22 points per game.
The other key man for the Wildcats is Matty Knight. While he has been in and out with injury this season, his inside presence is daunting for any offence to overcome.
Another factor to take into account here is the difference in experience. The Wildcats just find a way to get it done and with Martin, Shawn Redhage and Jesse Wagstaff on their squad, it’s hard to see where the youthful Taipans – with the exception of Worthington – have a leg to stand on when the going gets tough.
Both these sides are extremely tough to beat at home. For the Wildcats though, they have to find a way to win at least one on the road and in all probability, that’s all it will be.
It’s difficult to see the Wildcats dropping their home court after defending it twice in tight circumstances against Cairns this year, rising under pressure at The Jungle in front of 13,000 screaming fans.
For the Taipans to win both their games at home will come down to their offensive impact. They have dropped very few games this season when scoring at least 85 points, so the production that Travis Trice, Mark Worthington and Cameron Gliddon can produce is key.
It won’t be easy in the face of a defence led by Casey Prather, but it’s something they must achieve. Surprising backup also needs to come, and that must be led by Jarrad Weeks from the bench, who has done some wonderful things this season.
In terms of what’s actually going to happen on the scoreboard for the series, it’s difficult to see the Taipans losing the first game at home. In front of their Orange Army, they should use the momentum of Round 19 to get on the scoreboard first.
Momentum is a funny thing though, and the chance is that it’ll turn around on Monday in Perth and then remain that way for Game 3 in Cairns.
Don’t be surprised if we see overtime at least once in what is going to be a hard-fought series.
Taipans 1 – Wildcats 2.
Key series info
Game 1: Friday, February 17 at Cairns Convention Centre, Cairns (7:30pm AEDT)
Game 2: Monday, February 20 at Perth Arena, Perth (9:30pm AEDT)
Game 3*: Friday, February 24 at Cairns Convention Centre, Cairns (7:30pm AEDT)
*- if required
TV: All games live Fox Sports 503
Online: All games like NBL.TV
Betting: Taipans $1.54, Wildcats $2.37Cairns Taipans (likely)
Point guard: Travis Trice
Shooting guard: Cameron Gliddon
Small forward: Mark Worthington
Power forward: Alex Loughton
Centre: Nate Jawai
Bench: Nnanna Egwu, Stephen Weigh, Damon Heuir, Mitch McCarron, Stephen Weigh, Tony Mitchell, Jarrad Weeks, Anthony FisherPerth Wildcats (likely)
Point guard: Damian Martin
Shooting guard: Bryce Cotton
Small forward: Casey Prather
Power forward: Matty Knight
Centre: Jameel McKay
Bench: Greg Hire, Jarrod Kenny, Shawn Redhage, Jesse Wagstaff, Dexter Kernrich-Drew, Angus Brandt, Corban Wroe
The Roar will have live coverage of every match from the NBL finals series, so don’t forget to check it out.
Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde