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Nathan Lyon’s vulnerability in Asian conditions is the reason Australia have to field a fifth bowling option against India.
The veteran off spinner will be attacked mercilessly in the first Test by the Indian batsmen, who know that shaking the confidence of both Lyon, and of skipper Steve Smith in Lyon, will greatly unbalance the Australian attack.
India did exactly this four years ago, in the opening Test of the 2013 series at Chennai, smashing Lyon at an incredible 4.7 runs per over across his 52.3 overs. At one point, Lyon was clattered for 53 runs from just seven overs, as keeper-batsman MS Dhoni and tailender Harbhajan Singh toyed with the offie.
The calculated assault on Lyon worked and he was dropped for the second Test, with Xavier Doherty and Glenn Maxwell coming in as spin options.
It is likely India will again have identified Lyon as the weak link in the Aussie attack.
That perception will have crystallised in the past few days, as the Indian side watched Lyon get mauled by a tailender in Australia’s only warm-up match, against India A.
In the space of ten overs on Sunday, Lyon returned the horrendous figures of 0-81. What made this situation even more concerning was that Lyon was butchered for 37 runs off 20 balls by a lower-order batsman who came into the match with a first-class batting average of 19. Krishnappa Gowtham launched Lyon for four sixes and three fours amid this rampage.
Lyon took 4-162 but went at an astonishing 5.6 runs per over in that match. His spin colleagues Steve O’Keefe (4.2rpo) and Maxwell (4.3rpo) were also expensive, but neither was treated with the disdain reserved for Lyon.
It follows a recent trend of Lyon being pummelled by tailenders.
In the opening Test of this summer, he was pumped for 33 from 22 balls by spinner Keshav Maharaj. In the following series, against Pakistan, fast bowlers Wahab Riaz and Mohammad Amir hit him for 36 off 37 balls without being dismissed at Brisbane. Then paceman Sohail Khan clobbered Lyon for 33 from 20 balls at Melbourne, again without being dismissed.
If lower order batsmen have recently found it so easy to dominate Lyon, even in his favoured home conditions, how will he fare when he met with aggression by some of the best players of spin in world cricket in India?
That’s of particular concern when you consider the career-long struggle Lyon has had with bowling economically in Asia. Outside the subcontinent, Lyon has an impressive economy rate of 3.1 in Tests, but in Asia that figure balloons to 3.7.
This historical lack of control, combined with Lyon’s hammering in the recent tour match, has left the Australian selectors with no choice but to play a batting all-rounder at six or seven to provide a fifth bowling option.
If Australia were to pick just four bowling options, playing a specialist batsman at six, they would need to be confident Lyon and O’Keefe could bowl a mountain of overs and keep things relatively tight.
In such a scenario, India could wreak havoc by going after Lyon every time he takes the ball. If they did so successfully, it would force Smith to return to his pace bowlers, Mitch Starc and Josh Hazlewood, much earlier than he would rather. This would tire Australia’s two best bowlers, rendering them both less effective and more vulnerable to breaking down.
It’s at about this point that many fans chime in and say, “Just let Steve Smith be the fifth bowler.”
There’s a massive problem with that – Smith has gone at a whopping six runs per over across the 40 overs he’s delivered in Tests in Asia. You cannot possibly place any faith in a bowler who concedes a-run-a-ball in such conditions.
In response to those who suggest David Warner could be Australia’s fifth bowler, I would point out that in Tests in Asia he has career figures of 0-43 from five overs.
It is for these reasons that Australia look set to recall all-rounder Mitch Marsh.
Strangely enough, the Marsh brothers are the only Australians who have better Test records in Asia than outside. Shaun has 393 runs at 79 in Asia, compared to 932 runs at 33 elsewhere. Mitch has 327 runs at 33, with 299 at 18 elsewhere.
I wouldn’t have Mitch anywhere near the Test team in non-Asian conditions. But on his tours of the UAE and Sri Lanka he returned better stats against the slow bowlers than Michael Clarke, Usman Khawaja, Adam Voges, Joe Burns, Chris Rogers, Glenn Maxwell, Peter Nevill, Brad Haddin and Alex Doolan.
Read through that list one more time and then tell me again why Mitch Marsh is such a pathetic selection for the first Test.
And if you’re angry when Marsh gets picked, don’t blame the selectors, direct your ire at Lyon – he’s the main reason Australia can’t play six specialist batsmen at Pune.