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This time last year, I was watching everything I could get my hands on for the teams taking part in International Extreme Masters Katowice.
With ten games per week in each LCS region, there was plenty of time to watch North America and Europe, plus catch up on some of the games from Korea and China.
This year though, with over 20 games a week in the North American LCS alone, there just hasn’t been time to watch everything. Personally I’ve had to narrow my focus, and have just been following North America.
This year, no teams from that region will be attending IEM Katowice, so my knowledge of the teams is based entirely on their stats and their previous performance. I don’t think that I’m alone in mostly following a region that’s not being represented, considering all the teams from North America and China have had to drop out or decline their invitation.
There are eight teams competing this weekend.
In group A
From League Champions Korea, ROX Tigers: currently at eighth place in the region with a 2-6 record
From the LoL Continental League, M19: fourth in the region, 4-4
From the European League Championship Series, H2k Gaming: second in their group/approximately third in the region, 5-2
From the LoL Master Series, Hong Kong eSports: fifth in the region, 2-3
In group B
From League Champions Korea, Kongdoo Monster: ninth in the region, 1-7
From the European League Championship Series, Unicorns of Love: first in their group/approximately second in the region, 5-1
Also from the European League Championship Series, G2 eSports: first in their group/1st in the region, 7-0
From the LoL Master Series, the Flash Wolves: first in the region, 5-0
Four of these eight teams are in the bottom half of their regional standings, with either equal or losing records. The other four are at the top of their respective groups and regions, including the as-yet unbeaten G2 eSports and Flash Wolves.
Play will be a double elimination group bracket, with the first round of games best-of-one. The top two teams from each group will end up going into the finals. The total prize pool for League of Legends is $US125,000.
ROX Tigers versus M19
At first glance, for many of us this will seem an easy win for ROX Tigers; a game against a fourth place LCL team?
But there is a little bit more to it than that. M19 is the new name for Albus Nox Luna, the Wildcard team that made it all the way to the quarter-finals at the World Championship last year. Although that’s an amazing result for them, the team is now in fourth place regionally. Although the team hasn’t changed too much, if M19 were still one of the eight best teams in the world, they would probably be doing better locally.
Something similar can be said of the ROX Tigers; they finished top four at worlds, knocked out by the eventual champion, but they are currently only eighth in the LCK. They, however, have an excuse, with a completely new roster coming into this split and a support-staff shakeup. They have also managed to take a series off the higher-ranked bbq OLIVERS.
The Korean team absolutely has the advantage here. The LCK just has a higher quality of play, and if ROX Tigers are beating their peers, they should also be able to beat a middle-of-the-pack LCL team. It’s a bit of a shame that this is the first game for M19, but rankings-wise it’s probably one of the best they could get, and I would love to see them make the most of that.
H2k Gaming versus Hong Kong eSports
This game should be closer than the first in this group. These two teams are in similar positions in their league, and in leagues that tend to perform similarly at international events.
H2k Gaming don’t look as good as they did at the World Championship, but they are still having a respectable split locally. They only teams to have beaten them are the teams above them, G2 eSports and Unicorns of Love. Regardless of their local showing though, they are an organisation with a lot of international experience historically, so they should have been able to prepare themselves well.
Hong Kong eSports, by comparison, has no international history, and has an entirely new roster this split. Not only have they not won a single match in the last two weeks, they’ve not won a single game, and in all five series this split they have only won the first game of their series once.
The LMS has a history of surprise successes internationally, but they’ve not come from low-ranked teams. I said this game would be close, but it’s not super close – Hong Kong eSports have a chance, being a mid-tier team in a decent region, but H2k Gaming have a much better one.
Kongdoo Monster versus Unicorns of Love
This is probably the most unbalanced game of the first round.
I honestly feel bad for Kongdoo Monster. Not only are they ninth place, it’s a tied ninth with Jin Air Green Wings, and Kongdoo have the worse win/loss ratio. This means they’re effectively the worst team in the LCK. They also have some of the worst team-wide stats in the region. They did win a spot for this split out of Challengers Korea, but currenlty they are on track to be sent back again in a couple of months’ time.
Unicorns of Love, by comparison, are having an extremely good season so far. They’ve had the luxury of maintaining 60% of the roster that won IEM Oakland in November, and have only dropped one match which was to the top-of-the-table G2 eSports. Unicorns of Love have been known to pick champions ranging from the bizarrely genius to plain bizarre, but the team and coach should know to play it safe in the best-of-one they are starting the weekend with.
Unicorns of Love are a team that’s known for pulling out spectacular and unexpected games. To beat them then, Kongdoo Monster will have to pull out something even more spectacular and unexpected. I’m expecting a stomp, but I would really love to see this become something interesting.
G2 eSports versus Flash Wolves
In contrast to the last game, this should be the highest level game of the opening round. For one of these teams, it will be their first defeat of the year, and (although it will come in a best-of-one and kind of not count for that reason) I want to see how that will affect them going into the losers’ bracket.
Despite their local record, G2 eSports has a lot to make up for on an international stage. They were in the bottom quarter of teams at worlds, and their showing at the Mid-Season Invitational in 2016 is best left forgotten. I do have to question if they will be able to shake that off; if they can, they could win the tournament, but they only have two games, full stop, to do it.
Flash Wolves have a similar recent history, with barely-average records in recent international events. The difference here is that they came second at IEM Oakland, and if we go further back than 2016 they have actually done well previously, too. As an organisation, the Flash Wolves know what needs to be done to find success; they just have to do it this time.
A number of people are saying G2 eSports will win this whole tournament. I almost agree with them; over the course of a best-of-three, G2 eSports plays well enough to win this outright if they just don’t throw. In a best-of-one though, and especially in their first game of the event, I suspect G2 eSports will have just a bit too little confidence, and they’ll be pushed down into the losers’ bracket
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So much of the direction of this tournament will depend on the Korean teams. I don’t think quite as highly of them as many others; I definitely think that the lower teams should be able to be beaten by top-tier international teams. I’ve seen analyses that feel very differently though; several commentators seem to think that they will take the tournament.
That would put an interesting skew on the international scene. What do you think the outcome of these games (or the whole tournament) will be?