Blue Diamond day at Caulfield is one of the marquee race days of what we usually call the Melbourne autumn, even though it always falls in summer.
Three Group 1 among a full card of black-type races awaits us, complemented by Winx in the Chipping Norton up at Randwick as the Sydney carnival takes shape.
The Blue Diamond is the stand-out feature, the first Group 1 for two-year-olds that we see each racing season. This year’s edition has been an incredibly even betting race for a number of weeks, and even now we’re seeing six horses at the top of the market between $5.50 – $7.50.
Catchy is the nominal favourite, undefeated through the three runs in her career, including the key Prelude lead-up two weeks ago where she ground down the talented Limestone, which isn’t here.
She also claimed the scalp of Property two starts back, which might give us an indication that she has the colts division covered, or at least those that have come through the Preview/Prelude series. Craig Williams had the choice of roughly 141 juveniles for this race, and chose Catchy, so she has all the right credentials.
With Catchy only just lipping out Limestone in the Prelude last start, it’s worth looking at Tulip who was lipped out by that same opposition in the Preview and hasn’t raced since.
A month between runs may not always be ideal for the precocious two-year-olds, but David Hayes obviously wanted to keep her separate from stablemate Catchy, and he’s been a master at prepping this age group since Jesus first rode in the Bethlehem Cup.
The other filly in the market is Formality, also from the Hayes yard, and she has taken a different path again, debuting at Werribee with an emphatic win before taking on the boys in the Chairman’s Stakes, and beating them with authority.
It’s clear that Hayes and company have three quality fillies on their hands, and all have strong claims.
The colts division is similarly even, with the market suggesting Pariah is the best chance among them after a closing second in the boys Prelude, which followed his debut win at Group 3 level in Sydney. Having the Snowden name attached wouldn’t harm his chances in the eyes of punters either, and he seems one of the most likely to appreciate the step out to 1200m.
Property won that Prelude, after taking out the Preview too. Three times he’s been to the races, with Catchy being the only horse to finish in front of him. He was on debut that day, while she’d had the benefit of race experience, and from a dream barrier he’ll have his chance to turn the tables assuming Joao Moreira gives him the run of the race.
Jukebox is the other main fancy, and has been a bit of a streetcorner tip this week despite only coming through a maiden and a restricted Inglis race. It was the style he won in that should hold him in good stead in this class, and Ciaron Maher continues to make a favourable impression in the training ranks. He has been exuding an air of confidence.
Frankly, it’s hard to make much of a case for anything else. Perhaps Cao Cao can improve if ridden a bit quieter, and might add value to the multiples. Roomooz can run a drum if the Catchy form proves superior to the boys.
Selections: 1.Jukebox 2.Catchy 3.Property 4.Tulip
The Oakleigh Plate is a great sprint handicap of long standing, with a tradition of large fields and big odds results amid blanket finishes.
Extreme Choice is the strong favourite, and you don’t see many winning this race in single figure odds, let alone sub-$4 as he currently is. In the last 14 years, only Lankan Rupee, Starspangledbanner, Weekend Hussler and Fastnet Rock have won in single figures, so it’s a distinguished list.
Of course, the latter three of those were three-year-olds like Extreme Choice, and already Group 1 winners, as he is too. His credentials are sound, and his breathtaking first-up win in the spring makes him hard to tip against.
I Am A Star is also a Group 1 winning three-year-old, taking out the Myer Classic against mares in a race where plenty of star fillies have come undone. She returned with a superb second against older horses again in the Rubiton, including Chautauqua and Hellbent, and must be a chance if she’s not looking for further.
Fell Swoop is as honest as the day is long, and will be around the mark as he always is. Hellbent was going to be anything at the top of the spring, but has lost some of his lustre. He can finish off a race like few can, and the wide draw is his friend here.
Sheidel had a good spring and has a touch of class but is weighted accordingly as a mare. Thermal Current has picked his way to consistent wins through his career and is in form but probably lacks the class. Flamberge has the class, but also the weight to go with it. He ran his best race for a year last week in the Lightning.
Looking for some value, two that stand out are Kaepernick and Ocean Embers.
Kaepernick was right with Takedown first-up in the Shorts last prep, and that horse ended the spring as a Group 1 WFA winner. Kaepernick also ran into Spieth in the spring, running him within a length, giving him 3.5kgs mind you, and that horse could well have two Group 1 WFA wins to his name in an alternate reality where luck was distributed evenly across the track.
The only time Kaepernick has seen Caulfield, he finished third, behind only Group 1 winner The Quarterback, and consistent Group 1 competitor Fast N Rocking. His first-up record is strong, and he is something of an 1100m specialist. $15? Yes please.
Ocean Embers loves Caulfield, has from around Group 1 horses and gets handicap conditions to suit here. She’s drawn out wide with Kaepernick, which won’t harm them at all, in a race where a high barrier number is often seen in the winners frame. They’ll be the two steaming late.
Wild Rain can show up at a price, Faatinah can fill a hole on his day, and El Divino might figure if everything goes his way.
Selections: 1.Kaepernick 2.Ocean Embers 3.Extreme Choice 4.Fell Swoop
The Futurity Stakes is the Group 1 weight-for-age feature on the card, and it looks like a benefit for Black Heart Bart over 1400m.
He’s already won three Group 1 races at the track, including two over this distance, one of which was the Orr Stakes here two weeks ago.
Turn Me Loose was second in that race, in what was a welcome return to form after a year in the wilderness. He at least has enough quality to cause favourite-backers a moments pause if he can pinch a healthy break at the turn.
Palentino is flying for a bit further and a bigger track, but he’s going to be a hard horse to find the right race for at this time of year, especially if he doesn’t go the Sydney way. Ecuador will give his all but be outclassed again, as he was in the Orr. Tosen Stardom is the interesting runner.
Selections: 1.Black Heart Bart 2.Turn Me Loose 3.Ecuador 4.Fast N Rocking
Despite all of the Group 1 racing described above, the highlight of the day for many people will be watching Winx dominate the Chipping Norton Stakes up in Sydney. As hard as it is to believe, she may have even come back better than ever based on her Apollo Stakes win first-up.
Hartnell was in second, three lengths in arrears, and he had four lengths on the next best. If the wonder mare wasn’t around, we’d be marvelling at the ease with which he was putting paid to his rivals.
Just like Hay List with Black Caviar before him, it is the undisputed class of Hartnell that allows us to appreciate how truly great Winx is.
Selections: 1.Winx 2.Hartnell 3.Endless Drama 4.Preferment
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