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This time of year is a great time of year. It’s a time of hope when each fan can still dream that his team is going to win the NRL premiership.
It’s also a time when fans and experts alike come up with their NRL predictions, with probably only Sharks fans and Paul Kent getting it right in 2016.
But, before we get into the season, the issue that no prediction can take into account is injuries, and these have a huge bearing on who will win and who will lose each year.
The best way to measure this is perhaps by looking at the players numbers used during the year, noting that the lesser teams probably used some of their additional players due to form issues.
The full list, sourced from NRL.com is as follows (in order of ladder finish after 26 rounds):
Melbourne: 27
Canberra: 26
Cronulla: 24
North Queensland: 26
Brisbane: 26
Penrith: 28
Canterbury: 26
Gold Coast: 29
Wests Tigers: 30
New Zealand: 34
St George Illawarra:29
Souths: 31
Manly: 31
Parramatta: 28
Sydney Roosters: 31
Newcastle: 35
The team that used the least number of players during the year was, unsurprisingly, Cronulla. The Sharks used only 24 players throughout the course of 2016, including the five players lost to Origin.
The Sharks were also fortunate that there were no really long-term injuries, with Sam Tagataese the longest, missing a number of weeks at the back end of the season before playing in the grand final.
It’s important to note that the top eight clubs on the 2016 NRL ladder were also in the top ten clubs in terms of using the least players. Only Parramatta, who were docked 12 competition points and St George Illawarra, who had other problems, prevented a perfect correlation.
A special mention to the Storm, who used more players than five other clubs and still took out the minor premiership. To do so without Billy Slater for the whole season, one of the club’s ‘big three’, is evidence of their great team culture and is also testament to their coach.
It also explains why they are probably the only club in recent times that has been towards the top of the ladder every year.
So, what else can we derive from the list? Well, the Warriors must surely be the unluckiest on the list. To use the second largest amount of players (34) and still only miss the eight was, in retrospect, a good performance.
With a better run regarding injuries and Kieran Foran at the club, you’d have to think they will be playing semi final football this year.
Penrith and the Titans also deserve a special mention for making the eight using higher player numbers than the other semi finalists. Both clubs lost a number of players for the season so a big 2017 is predicted for both.
The Panthers, with their young roster and addition of James Tamou, should be there at the pointy end, injuries permitting.
The team that used the most players during the year was the Newcastle Knights, which is no great surprise. While part of this was related to form, the majority was due to a horror run with injuries.
However, with their roster, they will struggle again this season.
While one of the keys to winning a premiership is depth, you need a bit of luck with injuries. So, most clubs are still in with a shot of making the semi’s and possibly getting to the long weekend in October.
My tip? I’m no expert but I’m a fan – and I’m dreaming of a back to back!
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