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The 'once around' schedule and its implications

Patrick Dangerfield (left) and Steven Motlop of the Cats react after Motlop kicked a goal during the Round 21 AFL match between the Richmond Tigers and the Geelong Cats at the MCG in Melbourne, Sunday, Aug. 14, 2016. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Roar Guru
1st March, 2017
7

The scheduling fad-du-jour is the concept of a “play-everyone-once” plan with some kind of tweak.

As yet, a popular model involves 17 games against all other opponents plus five chosen once the teams tier into three groups of six: 17 games plus one ‘rivalry’ game, and so forth.

I don’t see a real problem with the current set-up, frankly. The cream rises to the top, and that’s what you want. And the idea that any professional league would ever put money back in the pot by reducing the number of filled stadiums per year is comical.

But just for fun, last season I kept track of the ‘once around’ fixture for the AFL. Any time two teams met for a second time, I discounted that game.

So the only games that counted on their ‘once around’ record were the ones where they played an opponent the first time, regardless of where.

Not everyone got the same number of home games, of course, because this creates an odd number of games played. Oh well.

Without further ado, here are the results of the 2016 AFL ‘once around’ season. Ties in record were resolved the old-fashioned way – i.e. who won on the field!

Team Record (22-game finish)
1. Sydney 14-3 (17-5, first)
2. Hawthorn 14-3 (17-5, third)
3. Western Bulldogs 13-4 (14-8, seventh)
4. Adelaide 13-4 (16-6, fifth)
5. Geelong 12-5 (17-5, second)
6. GWS 12-5 (16-6, fourth)
7. West Coast 12-5 (16-6, sixth)
8. North Melbourne 11-6 (12-10, eighth)
9. Port Adelaide 8-9 (10-12, 10th)
10. St Kilda 8-9 (12-10, ninth)
11. Carlton 7-10 (7-15, 14th)
12. Collingwood 7-10 (9-13, 12th)
13. Melbourne 6-11 (10-12, 11th)
14. Richmond 6-11 (8-14, 13th)
15. Gold Coast 4-13 (6-16, 15th)
16. Fremantle 3-14 (4-18, 16th)
17. Brisbane 2-15 (3-19, 17th)
18. Essendon 1-16 (3-19, 18th)

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Nothing particularly remarkable, although I would point out a few notes.

I would have thought North would have fared better if you cut out their second game against an opponent, given how they faded late. But they landed in the exact same placement. Carlton’s fade, on the other hand, disappeared entirely.

Also, the three way tie for 5-6-7 was broken by percentage in those 17 games.

To me, this gets much more interesting when you hypothesise how the finals would have gone last year in this format.

Elimination finals
Geelong (#5) only played the Kangas (#8) once, at Etihad, but they won anyway, 105-74 in R12.

When West Coast (#7) went to Spotless in R21 to play GWS (#6), NicNat was the hero and the Eagles eliminate the Giants 97-96. (So much for the ‘almost premiers’ last year!)

Qualifying finals
Sydney (#1) hosted Adelaide (#4) in R25, winning 118-82, and the Bulldogs (#3) famously beat the defenders Hawthorn (#2) in R25 as well, 107-84, at the MCG.

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Semi finals
Adelaide (#4) hosted Geelong (#5) at Adelaide Oval in R8 and lost, 98-72. Hawthorn (#2) hosted West Coast (#7) at the MCG in R2 and won 99-53.

Preliminary finals
Oddly, without actually implementing the controversial bye week followed by another bye (I sound like *NSYNC!), we came out with the same results! #1 Sydney would lose to #2 Hawthorn if we take the game played AT the SCG (R17, 75-70), and #3 Western would lose at Etihad to #5 Geelong utilising the R13 game, the Doggies’ worst of the season, a 100-43 loss to the Cats.

Grand final
So, it’s the fifth seed Geelong who’s making the miracle run, and the Kennett Curse comes into play as they play the second seed Hawks at the MCG. During the season, that happened in the very first game of the year, when the Cats had a remarkable victory over the reigning premiers, 116-86.

Instead of the first four-game finals victor coming from Footscray, it would have been the boys from Geelong who broke the mould of the double-chance format to win the Premiership if we’d had this format last year!

Want to follow the ONCE AROUND format in 2017? Here are the games to delete from each team’s schedule this year:

Adelaide – rounds 14, 17, 18, 20, 21.
Brisbane – rounds 13, 15, 17, 20, 21.
Carlton – rounds 13, 14, 16, 20, 23.
Collingwood – rounds 15, 16, 21, 22, 23.
Essendon – rounds 15, 16, 20, 21, 23.
Fremantle – rounds 14, 16, 17, 22, 23.
Geelong – rounds 14, 17, 18, 22, 23.
Gold Coast – rounds 12, 13, 15, 21, 23.
GWS – rounds 17, 18, 21, 22, 23.
Hawthorn – rounds 12, 14, 15, 17, 19.
Melbourne – rounds 16, 17, 19, 21, 23.
North Melbourne – rounds 14, 15, 16, 19, 22.
Port Adelaide – rounds 13, 16, 20, 21, 23.
Richmond – rounds 14, 17, 18, 22, 23.
St Kilda – rounds 18, 20, 21, 22, 23.
Sydney – rounds 12, 17, 18, 19, 23.
West Coast – rounds 15, 16, 17, 20, 22.
Western – rounds 12, 14, 15, 20, 21.

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