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The Roar

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Thank heavens the footy is back! Here's how your side is looking

1st March, 2017
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Melbourne Storm were runaway minor premiers, so where's their reward? (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Expert
1st March, 2017
130
2756 Reads

The 2017 NRL season has finally arrived!

For every side and their supporters the slate is clean. Hope and optimism are their co-pilots.

But here is the ugly reality.

Only one side out of the 16 (6.25 per cent) can win. Only two (12.5%) will make the final day of the season. Only four (25%) will make the preliminary finals. For the other 12 sides the season the season will be at best passable.

One of those sides and their fans will have a miserable season and come last. Dating back to the 1980 season, it is a 73 per cent likelihood that the team that comes last in 2017 will not have made the finals in 2016. In fact, in 55 per cent of the time the wooden spooner came in the bottom four the previous season.

So, the chances are better than even that one out of the Eels, the Sea Eagles, The Roosters or the Knights will claim the spoon in 2017.

Over 25 per cent of the time since 1980 teams have gone back-to-back winning the spoon. Newcastle in 2015 and 2016 was the latest team to perpetuate this tradition. The good news for the Knights is that only the Gold Coast Chargers in ’91, ’92 and ’93 have won three spoons in a row in the period since 1980.

However, since 1998, 37 per cent of the time the team that came last had made the finals the previous season. So it is a one in three chance that a 2016 finalist will totally crash and burn in 2017.

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On average three sides that made the finals in the previous season won’t make it the following season. This year the bookies have the Bulldogs and the Titans going south, being replaced by the Warriors and the Roosters.

The chances are only 16 per cent of a side that didn’t make the finals in 2016 winning the premiership this year. The odds are stacked against back-to-back premiers, and runners up very rarely contest the next year’s grand final either. This is all good news for the Cowboys, Raiders, Broncos and Panthers. Statistically they are the sides most likely to be the 2017 Premier.

The last month has been chockers with experts predicting the makeup of the ladder come the end of Round 26.

cameron-smith-melbourne-storm-nrl-rugby-league-grand-final-2016

It’s time to put some science into it with some detailed examination.

Your team’s chances rest on a number of basic factors this season.

1. The roster – How good is it? Who have they gained, who have they lost, how will it affect the side?
2. A Superstar – Does the side have an imperious player with X-Factor?
3. The coach – Is he a guru, a rising star, a solid performer, an unknown quantity or right up against it?
4. Club stability – is the head office a tight and harmonious ship and the players united or is there subterfuge and in fighting aplenty?
5. Recent results – has the club played finals in recent season or have lots of players who have?

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Even if your side has all its ducks in a row in regard to these four factors, there are two other things that can totally bring it all undone: injuries and scandal.

Just ask the 2016 Roosters supporters about that.

However, let’s score each side against these criteria to work out just how this season might play out.

Brisbane Broncos
The roster: 0
The loss of Corey Parker is huge. Not only was he a superb and experienced ball playing lock forward, he was a great leader. Darius Boyd has big shoes to fill.

Add the loss of Jarrod Wallace and Jack Reed and the Broncs line up starts looking a bit weak up front and inexperienced out back. David Mead is a quality addition to the side. Korbin Sims and Mitchell Dodds are honest toilers. However, the retirements of Justin Hodges and Corey Parker hang large over this side.

A lot rests on the shoulders of the excellent spine of Ben Hunt, Anthony Milford, Andrew McCullogh and Darius Boyd if the Broncos are to be successful.

Darius Boyd of the Brisbane Broncos celebrates

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Superstar: 0
Anthony Milford is going to be, and Darius Boyd could also get there, but they aren’t there yet. There is no Darren Lockyer in this side.

The coach: +2
If anyone can get this side to its competitive best it will be Wayne Bennett.

Club stability: +1
The Broncos run a tight ship. However, string a few poor results together and the playing group may fracture. James Roberts can’t afford to have any more off-field issues either, especially with the Broncs looking skinny in the outside backs.

Recent results: +1
Bundled out by the Cowboys in last year’s finals, my feeling was the Broncos limped from the Origin period onwards. Injuries in their outside backs and to Andrew McCullogh – as well as the forwards not going as well as hoped – meant that the Broncos faded away. While there is lots of potential in the squad, there is also a fair bit of inexperience at the wheel.

Total: +4
I reckon the Broncos will finish somewhere from fifth to tenth position in 2017. No Injuries and the referees actually using the sin bin may see them do even better. However, I hear whispers that their on field general – Alan Langer – may be required to be off the field a fair bit more this year than has been the case in recent seasons.

If that proves to be the case we’ll find out how good Ben Hunt and Anthony Milford actually are at reading and controlling the game. The Broncos could surprise me in 2017 and be a real contender, but I reckon they won’t. Finals are a 50-50 chance.

Canberra Raiders
The Roster: +1
While the squad that played in the 2016 finals is still pretty much together, the Raiders depth has taken a big hit with the loss of Shaun Fensom, Edrick Lee, Sam Williams and Paul Vaughn. Add the long-term injury to the unsung yet excellent Kurt Baptiste to that.

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There is a bit of noise about Englishman Jordan Turner being promising (although he hasn’t been selected this weekend), and the wraps on junior Kangaroo Nick Cotric are very big.

Further, if Dave Taylor can get his head right (and Dean Pay can weave his defensive magic with him like he did with Blake Austin and Jarrod Croker), he could be a very good acquisition for the Raiders. So, while the squad is strong, there have been distinct losses. However, there is now plenty of finals and big game experience in the side.

Superstar: 0
There are a number of players in the side who may get to this level – and maybe even in 2016 – but none are there yet. Dual Meninga medallists Josh Hodgson and Josh Papalii are the two best players, and there are a host of players in great form, but there is no Laurie Daley, Mal Meninga or Brad Clyde in this side – yet.

The coach: +1
Ricky has the players, the club and the fans completely behind him. He has the squad settled and focused. If he can get Blake Austin and Aidan Sezer clicking – the last piece in the puzzle – his haters will be left with paper thin arguments.

Club stability: +2
I don’t think the club on and off the field has ever been this stable. No one is angrier about Josh Papalii going DUI than the man himself.

Recent results: +2
The Raiders blew the semi final against the clinical and determined Sharks, and then injury cruelled their chances against the Storm. However, they smashed into the finals like a juggernaut. They are flying under no radars now.

Total: +6
The club itself would see anything other than a top-four finish as a failure, and rightly so. However, they must replicate the form of last season, get lucky with injuries and stop getting into tight games.

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A genuine Premiership contender for the first time since 1995.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Roster: -1
The retirement of Curtis Rona is the only big loss from their squad, with lots of Dogs fans very happy to see the back of Tony Williams.

The Bulldogs have a lot of talent right across the park. The problem is that in 2016 it did not click. One problem is that Moses Mbye and Josh Reynolds haven’t formed a great combination yet.

However, I believe a large part of that issue is that the service they are getting out of dummy half Michael Lichaa isn’t good enough. While he is a very good defensive hooker, the key role of a hooker is to get the ball quickly and effectively to the right person.

While his service is slow, sometimes questionable and often not to the playmakers who are screaming for it, the team will find it hard to be effective in attack. They have got Zac Woolford from the Raiders Under20’s who may get his chance sooner rather than later. However, he’s just a kid. The Number 9 jersey is a vital one in any side.


Superstar: 0

There are some really superb players in the Dogs squad. Josh Jackson is a particular favourite of mine. James Graham and David Klemmer are both excellent footballers – as are the Morris Twins. However, none have X-Factor. Moses Mbye is the man if a superstar is to rise from this very talented squad.

Coach: -1
Let me say up front that I’m a huge fan of Des Hasler. I reckon he’s the goods. However, that he had to fight for his position at seasons end tells me that his position and authority at Belmore is far from assured. There are lots who think the likes of Dean Pay should be brought home in his place.

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Club stability: -1
Their meek exit in week one of the 2016 finals, coupled with the pressure on the coach and the sight of Mbye and Reynolds yelling at their hooker on field doesn’t fill me with confidence that there is a lot of stability at the Dogs. However, remember 1995. If there is a side that can get it together in a flash it is the boys in blue and white.

Recent results: -1
The Bulldogs were easily mastered by the Panthers in week one of the finals last year. Their dysfunction was massively on display. They lost their last four games of 2016. They need to get their combinations together and carry out their game plans effectively if things are going to change in 2017.

Total: -4
They are a real chance to miss the finals in 2017. However, this is the Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs we are talking about. They could still be a force this season. However, I reckon they’ll miss the eight.

Canterbury Bulldogs NRL coach, Des Hasler,

Cronulla Sharks
Roster: -1
The Sharks do not win the 2016 title without Michael Ennis. Plain and simple. He brought a structure, focus and competitive spirit to the side that they really needed to succeed. He’s now retired and I highly doubt that Jayden Brailey will be able to effectively replace him. The loss of the enigmatic Ben Barba also hurts.

Further, Paul Gallen is 35. Luke Lewis is 33. Chris Heighington is 35. Their gains of note are Edrick Lee, Daniel Mortimer and Jeremy Latimore. While all are good players, they don’t make up for the losses. Tony Williams is the wildcard. He was abysmal at the Bulldogs. T-Rex got stuck in the tar pit. However, we all know he has talent – somewhere…

Superstar: 0
There is no superstar in this side. You could argue Paul Gallen was once. Andrew Fifita may be bordering on it. His man-of-the-match performance in the 2016 Grand Final was top shelf and game winning. More of that and less brain explosions and he’ll be there.

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Coach: +1
Say what you will about Shane Flanagan, he is a premiership winning coach now.

Club stability: 0
This score is actually a big improvement from the peptides/no sponsor/bubbler/abusing referees at junior games era. The score would have been higher but for Andrew Fifita being seemingly unstable, Valentine Holmes trialling with NFL sides and Ben Barba racking off to France.

Recent results: +2
While the match against Wigan didn’t go as planned, there is no better recent result than winning the premiership.

Total: +2
While loads of pundits are predicting a massive grand final hangover for the Sharks, this suggests they might well make the finals.

Gold Coast Titans
The roster: -1
Wow, have the Titans lost some cattle! The loss of Nathan Friend, David Mead, David Shillington, Josh Hoffman, Greg Bird and Zeb Taia will hurt. There are two good pickups in Jarrod Wallace and Kevin Proctor.

The halves combination of Ash Taylor and Kane Elgey could be superb. Ryan James form demands Laurie Daley’s attention. Konrad Hurrell is playing well at Robina too.

Superstar: +1
He’s not back to his best yet, but he will be. Jarryd Hayne is a superstar. He can change a game. He is that good. Just ask him.

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Jarryd Hayne Gold Coast Titans NRL Finals Rugby League 2016 tall

Coach: +1
Fun fact: Neil Henry was my PE teacher back in the 1980s (I was that weakling kid who looked like a frog while trying in vain to do a single chin up). He’s a very good first grade coach. Getting the Titans to the finals last year demonstrated that.

Club stability: -1
Owned by the NRL, who can’t find a buyer, and in a hostile region that the neighbouring big boy would like all to itself, the Titans are hardly a byword for stability. However, this is the tenth year of the Titans. No iteration of a Gold Coast side has ever lasted this long. That’s got to count for something!

Recent results: 0
While the Titans did make the finals, they were making up numbers – although had referee Gerard Sutton had a better match they may have beaten the Broncos. However, making the finals can’t be a bad thing!

Total: 0
This score suggests that the Titans will finish somewhere from 11th to 7th. Of course if Hayne gets his mojo back who knows how far this side could go?

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
The roster: -1
The Sea Eagles list wasn’t the best in 2016 and if you then have the likes of Jamie Lyon, Steve Matai and Brett Stewart retire you’ve got to have a classy replacement or two. As a huge chunk of the Sea Eagles salary cap goes to just one player, Trent Barrett has had to go with waifs and strays instead.

While there’s a few handy players in the recruits – like Blake Green – will it be enough to compensate for the loss of the above three players? The ray of light is, of course, the Trbojevic brothers – Tom and Jake. They are superb and will only get better.

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Superstar: 0
Considering the money he’s on, Daly Cherry-Evans should be a superstar. He’s not and Manly Warringah really needs him to be. Will he take the next step? I’m pretty sure Turbo Tom Trbojevic will in the not too distant future.

The coach: -1
It’s a tough game coaching, as Trent Barrett found out the hard way in 2016. If he’s to see out the 2017 still in charge at Brookvale he’s going to need quite a few wins early.

Club stability: -1
There is an uneasy peace at Brookvale – a place that can often make the power plays in Game of Thrones seem a bit tame. However, if the season starts poorly, expect the cracks to quickly appear and infighting to recommence.


Recent results: -1

The Sea Eagles lost their last five games of 2016 to miss the finals for the second season in a row.

Total: -4
This would indicate that things are going to be worse for the Sea Eagles in 2017. Another bottom four finish beckons. Possibly even the wooden spoon.

Melbourne Storm
The roster: 0
The Storm since 2009 have been an assembly of recycled meat and potatoes players, mixed with some up and coming juniors, that rotate around a world class spine. The 9-7-1 of Smith, Cronk and Slater may never be equalled.

The thing is that Craig Bellamy is a coach who can turn meat and potatoes into filet mignon and potatoes au gratin. He gets players to buy into his game plan, his ethos, his work ethic. Then his on field generals in Cam Smith and Cooper Cronk make sure that focus – and predetermined reactions to any circumstance that might eventuate – is maintained.

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So, while his 2017 roster looks weaker than last season don’t you believe it. However, questions hang heavy: Can Josh Addo-Carr tackle like Marika Koroibete? How important to the pack was Kevin Proctor and can the likes of Ryley Jacks replace him? But the biggest question is “will we ever see Billy Slater again?”

I’ve seen the Storm bested many times over the years only for a piece of Slater brilliance to steal the game. Munster is good, but Billy is a freak.

Superstars: +2
Cam Smith is the best captain in the game. He knows how to control the game, the ruck, the defensive line and the referees. He can even kick goals. He has done it so well for so long he is a superstar.

As said above, Billy Slater is a freak. His superb athleticism and instincts are some of the best I’ve ever seen. The question is whether his shoulder will ever let us see him play again. I’m starting to fear not…

The coach: +2
As detailed above, Craig Bellamy’s coaching system is well established and effective. Will it be as effective post the retirements of Smith and Cronk? Who knows…But we aint there yet.

Club stability: +2
The place is a well run, well oiled machine that is focussed as a unit. It doesn’t get any better.

Recent results: +2
Yet another top four finish and grand final appearance in 2016. This is a side that knows how to win the hard games.

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Total: +8
There are two things that can stop the Storm getting another top four finish in 2017.

Injuries: if Cronk or Smith go down so will the Storm.

The sin bin: if Tony Archer’s referees actually do crack down on repeated penalties by using the sin bin then the Storm’s defensive structures may really struggle.

Newcastle Knights
Roster: -1
The Knight’s recruitment has actually been OK. Jamie Buhrer, Rory Kostjasyn, Ken Sio and Josh Starling are all solid players. However, would you say that they were great signings? The losses of Jeremy Smith, Robbie Rochow and Korbin Sims weren’t ideal. Further, Jarrod Mullen’s ignominious exit surely wasn’t in the script.

Now coach Nathan Brown has a bunch of very enthusiastic kids and solid journeymen being led by Trent Hodkinson. The only way is up.

Superstars: 0

I’ve got big wraps on Sione Mata’utia, Dane Gagai and Nathan Ross – but none are game changers yet by a long shot.

The coach: -1
I’ve never rated Nathan Brown as a coach. I’ve never been able to get over slapping Trent Barrett. I do like a redemption story though so I’d enjoy him taking his Knights on a ‘Bad News Bears’-type resurgence. I’m just not sure he can.

Club stability: +1
You know what is great about the Newcastle club? The fans. It seems that the worse things have got, the more they have turned up. Their membership and home attendance levels were some of the best in the NRL in 2016 in spite of the continued poor results.

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I have nothing but admiration for those hardy, loyalists I met in Canberra last year who drove six hours both ways to support their side in the most difficult of seasons. That is club stability right there. Kudos.

Recent results: -2
One win and a draw in 24 games is about the worst I’ve ever seen.

Total: -3
It looks like another year of no finals for the Knights, and probably another bottom four finish.

North Queensland Cowboys
Roster: +1
Any side with Johnathan Thurston and Jason Taumololo in it is a good side. Add Jake Granville, Michael Morgan and Matt Scott and it becomes imposing. However, lose Ben Hannant and James Tamou and it isn’t so great, especially when there are whispers that Matt Scott’s back has remedial issues.

The boy from Longreach is vital to the Cowboys chances. Even Thurston will find it hard to weave his magic if his pack isn’t going forward. The snaring of Shaun Fensom is a good one. He is a quality player.

Superstars: +2
Johnathan Thurston is the second best player I’ve ever seen – after Wally Lewis. He’s a match winner. And his encouragement after a 2016 State of Origin match for the students in Arakun to stay in school showed just what a great community leader he has become.

Jason Taumololo is now a superstar. His barnstorming runs are nigh on unstoppable and reminiscent of Mal Meninga in the 1980s. The effect those runs have on his opposition, and on his own team is huge and can be match changing.

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The Coach: +1
Paul Green is a premiership winning coach and his side plays an attractive brand of positive football with little niggle and virtually no cynical play. If Archer’s referees crack down on cynical play with the sin bin then Green’s coaching will be a big winner.

Club stability: +1
The club’s main issue is its remoteness. Apart from that they are getting a new stadium, have a great supporter base and the premiership window is still open. However, the impending loss of Kalyn Ponga isn’t ideal.

Recent results: +1
The Cowboys ran out of steam at the business end of proceedings, falling to fourth and being knocked out by the eventual premiers. However, they were no one’s bunny and were competitive in all matches. The offseason rest should have revitalised them. They are overflowing with finals and big game experience.

Total: +6
Another top four finish is likely, although I have questions about the pack. Of course, their chances revolve around the health of Thurston.

Parramatta Eels
Roster: 0
The Eels have some real talent in their side. The question is “will it click.” Further, is Kaysa Pritchard at hooker going to be a success? Will Semi Radradra have his heart in the job? Will Corey Norman stay out of trouble? Can Clint Gutherson make it at five eighth? Can Bevan French make a good fist of fullback?

The additions of Nathan Brown and Josh Hoffman are good. If Will Smith, Frank Pritchard and Kirisome Auva’a work out then even better. Pretty much nothing that has left will be missed, except maybe Michael Gordon at the back. This squad seems to have improved slightly but can it gel?

Superstars: 0
There are none. Perhaps Semi may have a swansong season for the Eels. Beau Scott’s fearsome work ethic and experience makes him their most important player for mine.

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The coach: +2
Thank heavens for Brad Arthur. How he kept his team focused in 2016 amid all the chaos, turmoil and distractions is beyond me. His playing group – and the fans – are totally behind him. Perhaps if things can just calm down a bit he might be able to get some good results.

Club Stability: 0
Considering the horrors of last year this is a distinct improvement. The new board should go a long way to keeping the back room off the front pages – and stopping the factions unparalleled talent of causing disruption. The Eels fans are a dedicated and passionate mob. They are owed some peace.

Semi Radradra of the Eels scores

Recent results: -1
The Eels won their last two games of the season to finish off on a high. However, their chief result was missing the finals. Notably, had they not been stripped of points (and I’m not saying they shouldn’t have) they would have come eighth.They need to grind out some early wins. The last time they made the finals was 2009. That’s seven long seasons ago.

Total: +1
If Brad Arthur can weave the magic I think he is capable of then the Eels could make the finals and start building towards a far better future. I reckon they’ll go close to making the eight this year.

Penrith Panthers
The Roster: +1
The Panthers are definitely on the verge of something. The injury to Josh Mansour was a fair bit of a blow, and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak being injured for the first four rounds will hurt.

However, who isn’t excited about Nathan Cleary? With the exciting Te Maire Martin back from injury, Bryce Cartwright can get back to the second row and just worry about his game.

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James Tamou, Mitch Rein and Tim Browne are welcome additions to a pack that now looks very dangerous. And imagine Matt Moylan being able to chime in from the back behind them. If they can keep the squad fit they will be a very big threat for the title.

Superstar: 0
Matt Moylan is on the verge of this status but he isn’t quite there yet. This could be the season he gets there though. If Nathan Cleary is this good at such a young age it is hard to believe he won’t be a future superstar.

The coach: 0
Anthony Griffin had a great first year at the Panthers. While I’m still an unabashed Ivan Cleary fan, Griffin certainly guided the side well in 2016. However, expectations are high out west and the ex-Broncos mentor will know that he has to keep getting the results. He still has a lot to prove.

Club stability: +1
While Gus Gould is at the helm the club will have stability and focus. However, like Griffin, he needs results to keep the fans happy. 2003 is 13 seasons ago.

Recent results: +1

The side played in two finals in 2016 and that will stand them in good stead this season. They’ve got four Origin players in their ranks now, all in key positions. The boys can put on a score – and run one down.

Total: +3
Only injury misfortune will see the Panthers miss the 2017 finals and, if things go right, they should be able to achieve the top four. From there anything is possible.

Penrith Panther's Josh Mansour

South Sydney Rabbitohs
The Roster: +1
The Rabbitohs roster has great players throughout it. The Burgess brothers had a tough year in 2016 and they’ll be champing at the bit to regain lost pride. In Robbie Rochow and Robbie Farah they have gained two good players.

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Farah has something to prove as well, and that is a real threat to his opponents – especially the Wests Tigers this weekend. The loss of Nathan Brown isn’t ideal but the pack has enough mongrel in them to make the required yards. Of course, having Greg Inglis at the back – assuming his knee is right – is a deadly weapon to have in the arsenal.

Superstars: +2
Greg Inglis is just a superb player. He can take control of games and make something out of nothing.

Sam Burgess is hard as nails and up for the contest. As he showed in the 2014 Grand Final, he can drag his side with him to victory and terrorise the opposition.

The coach: 0
While Michael McGuire is a premiership winning coach, the last two seasons results have seen the pressure build on him. There will be little tolerance for poor results in 2017. He needs early wins and he must make the finals this season. End of story.

Club stability: +1
Being a privately owned club certainly avoids the sort of issues that the Eels and the Wests-Tigers frequently endure. While the results weren’t ideal in 2016, and there were a number of issues with the playing group, there seems to be little prospect of civil war breaking out.

Recent results: +1
This side still has loads of big game experience in it. Further, after being touched up by the Raiders in round 21, the Rabbitohs won four of their last five games impressively, only losing to the Storm by a point in Melbourne in extra time.

Total: +5
The figures look good for the Rabbitohs but they’ve still got to make it happen. Missing Adam Reynolds for the first four rounds is far from ideal too. I think they’ll make the eight but I don’t think they’ll threaten the top four.

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Rabbitohs player Greg Inglis celebrates

St George Illawarra Dragons
The Roster: -1
How do I put this nicely… The Dragons roster is poor. While Tyson Frizzel is really very good and I believe Paul Vaughn is a great addition, the perennial question remains: “where are the points coming from?”

Josh McCrone is not a first grade halfback and Josh Dugan – while he averaged 179 metres and 5.7 tackle breaks a game in 2016 – only scored two tries, assisted one and assisted four line breaks.

Matthew Moylan, Lachlan Coote, Ben Barba, Darius Boyd, Jack Wighton, James Tedesco and Cameron Munster were all well in double figures for try and line break assists in 2016.

In the last three seasons he has played 43 games out of a possible 67 (taking out six State of Origin stand downs) for the Red V.

Gareth Widdop looks like an increasingly disconsolate figure. Cameron Mcinnes may be more effective than Mitch Rein in the number nine jersey, he’ll need to be.

Superstars: 0
There isn’t even anyone threatening.

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The coach: -2
Paul McGregor is wearing borrowed boots, while tap dancing on thin ice, with the full support of the board. He could be gone as early as round five if the results are poor.

Club stability: -1
This is nothing new though. With the exception of Wayne Bennett’s years in charge, the “Oust Doust” banner has been a fixture in the Dragons crowd. Give Peter Doust his due though, he’s harder to get rid of than herpes! However, the fans really are fed up. Something will give if results don’t start to come good. Dugan threatening to leave doesn’t help matters.

Recent results: -1
While the Dragons made the finals in 2015 they were quickly bundled out. However, thirteen of their squad that will play Penrith this weekend have played finals footy. So there is hope. In 2016 they won ten games but only one – the 14 point win over the Sharks in Round 23 – was by more than 12 points. Only the Knights scored less points than they did last season.

Total: -5
This all looks like a bottom-four finish unless something drastic changes. And I can’t see how that would happen with their current roster.


Sydney Roosters

Roster: +2
After three consecutive minor premierships, the Roosters endured a horror season in 2016. However, they are now fully fit and itching to reassert themselves on the competition. While they’ve lost the excellent Sam Moa, the rest of their side is strong in all positions. The forward pack is mighty and experience and the backline is dripping with talent.

The addition of Luke Keary and Michael Gordon are good. Dylan Napa and Latrell Mitchell have amazing potential and could have break out years.

The likes of Boyd Cordner, Blake Ferguson and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves are all top class. Then there’s Mitchell Pearce. He’s got a thing or two to prove.

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Superstars: 0
Strangely the Roosters have none, just a lot of very, very good players.

The coach: +1
Trent Robinson probably hated getting the ‘Supercoach’ tag after just one season. It would have hung heavy in 2016.

However, he has got his side to three consecutive minor premierships. He’s got to be good. I’ll be very surprised if he doesn’t have the playing group right behind him.

Club stability: 0

Here’s an issue. The Roosters seem to be a haven for troubled players. Just look at the list of players who’ve been in big strife off the pitch: Jake Friend, Blake Ferguson, Mitchell Pearce, Shaun Kenny-Dowall and Paul Carter. Off the top of my head. Robinson needs to make sure his boys stay focused and stay out of trouble.

Recent results: +2
This side is just loaded with finals, Origin and International experience. Of the starting 13 this Saturday, only Latrell Mitchell hasn’t played in at least one of those forums. Mark 2016 down as an aberration.

Total: +5
Barring injuries and scandal the Roosters will be playing finals again in 2017 and very possibly challenging for the title.

New Zealand Warriors
Roster: +1
The Warriors backline is dripping with talent. The addition of Kieran Foran is a godsend for Shaun Johnson. He’ll be able to concentrate on his supreme running game and that should scare hell out of their opponents.

With Roger Tuivasa-Sheck fit at the back, Solomone Kata and David Fusitua in the centres and Tuimoala Lolohea on the wing, they have the ability to break aart any defence. The Warriors issue is up front.

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While no one doubts the abilities of Simon Mannering and Ryan Hoffman, the application and efficacy of the other forwards is in question. However, they have the potential to be a great pack. There is also lots of international experience in the side.

Superstars: 0

I love Shaun Johnson. I love watching him bamboozling sides and running at full tilt. He’s going to rip 2017 apart. But he needs to if he’s going to be a superstar.

The coach: +1
While Stephen Kearney’s stint at Parramatta yielded just a 24 per cent win ratio, he has led the Kiwis to a World Cup win in 2008, and Four Nations victories in 2010 and 2014. That’s no mean feat. Still supported by Andrew McFadden, Kearney will add some real authority to the role that will help his charges achieve consistently good performances.

Club stability: 0
There was little stability last season. The acrimonious departure of Konrad Hurrell and issues with a number of the playing group was less than ideal. As was the constant speculation over McFadden’s tenure. Hopefully those issues are behind them. Not sure how happy anyone – including the NRL – will be about Foran’s manager contacting the Broncos.

Recent results: -1
This side hasn’t played finals football since 2011 when they lost to Manly in the Grand Final. Apart from Simon Mannering, all their finals experience comes from Isaac Luke, Jacob Lillyman, Ryan Hoffman and Tuivasa-Sheck when they played for other sides. However, should they make the play offs, that’s a lot of finals experience.

Total: +1
Surely this is the year the Warriors live up to their potential and make the finals. Surely. These numbers certainly don’t see it as a certainty though.

Shaun Johnson running with football

Wests Tigers
The roster: -1
Jason Taylor now has full control of his side. Robbie Farah is gone. The question is can he do anything with it. The forward pack looks weak. Matt McIlwrick at hooker isn’t ideal and, apart from Aaron Woods, there are question marks over the effectiveness of many of the members of the pack.

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The backline can surely attack but their propensity for missing tackles is big. James Tedesco is a star though and imagine if Taylor can resurrect Jamal Idris. While the halves combination of Luke Brooks and Mitchell Moses are turnstiles in defence, they are very good ball players. They could outscore a few sides this season.

Superstars: 0
I suspect James Tedesco will get there one day.

The coach: 0
Jason Taylor now has no excuses. He’s demanded full control of his side and got rid of Robbie Farah to achieve that. The board backed him. Now he must come up with the goods. Pure and simple.

Club stability: -1
The only reason this isn’t minus two is because the board backed Taylor. However, the Wests Tigers have been a byword for instability. Perhaps they are emerging from that era. One can only hope.

Recent results: -2
This side hasn’t played finals since 2011. Their ninth placing in 2016 was their best result since then. Five of their 17 fronting up this weekend have a smattering of finals appearances. Only Chris Lawrence remains from the 2011 Wests Tigers finals campaign.

Total: -4
This all adds up to another year in the wilderness. While Jason Taylor may get some good results, I suspect this side won’t be a force again until they recruit a number of good players.

So given all this how does the predicted 2017 ladder after 26 rounds look? Averaging each sides finishes for the last two seasons and then applying the above scores the predicted table looks like this.

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1. Storm
2. Cowboys
3. Roosters
4. Raiders
5. Broncos
6. Panthers
7. Sharks
8. Rabbitohs
9. Warriors
10. Bulldogs
11. Eels
12. Titans
13. Sea Eagles
14. Dragons
15. Knights
16. Wests Tigers

Now, bring on the footy!

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