Yesterday, we looked at the Australian Guineas, which looks quite a deep race, and poked a bit of fun at the fact that there are two Group 1 Guineas over 1600m for the three-year-olds being run on the same day.
There is more chance of Donald Trump being embraced by bleeding heart lefties than there is of the ATC and Racing Victoria coming together for the greater good, much to the dismay of general Australian racing fans.
The Randwick Guineas carries a healthy $1,000,000 purse, and has been a competitive betting race, albeit lacking for top quality.
The favourite, only has a Group 3 win to his name, and second favourite Inference, while placed in the VRC Derby, has a Pakenham benchmark 70 as his finest achievement in the win column.
The likelihood of a bottomless track, or even postponement also muddies the waters. If they run, it probably be the best swimmer than wins, not the best horse. The Hobartville Stakes, always the key lead-up, was run on a soft 5, which is not the same thing at all.
Comin’ Through is the favourite here, after running a solid third in the Hobartville, which followed a similar performance in the Eskimo Prince. He has the sense of timing about him that a lot of Chris Waller’s young horses do, and his impressive Carbine Club Stakes win at Flemington on Derby Day stamped him as a colt with a bright future.
Man From Uncle won the Hobartville at $6.50 top fluc, after taking out the Eskimo Prince at $21 opening quote. His debut win was at $14, and in fact he’s never missed a place, at an average starting price of $11. Don’t we all dream of owning a good horse that starts their career like that!
Man From Uncle has shown his versatility, and in five starts has already raced on the speed, midfield and well back. He doesn’t win by big margins, which is why his opposition are always backed to beat him next time, but he is tough as teak, and he’ll jump above the each-way cut again.
Inference was well backed in the Hobartville, when he was first-up after his VRC Derby placing, but wasn’t suited with the race playing to those on the speed. Whether he’s got the quality to beat these over 1600m is a question, but two early career soft track wins may mean something.
Echo Effect took up the cudgels in the Hobartville, defying them all to beat him, and will likely do so again from an inside draw. Hitting a mile for the first time shouldn’t be an issue, although class might be.
Acatour is another from the Hobartville that wasn’t suited, in a race where there wasn’t a huge amount of difference between where runners settled and where they finished. Is he an improver, or is he not quite up to this grade?
Prized Icon and Land of Plenty have both accepted for both Guineas, but will be running in Melbourne.
Malaise ran second in the CS Hayes behind Hey Doc, and in fact has found one better in all three runs this time in working through the grades. He has a heavy 10 win over Wine Bush to his credit from the spring, in what was only his second career start.
Hardham and Manolo Blahniq are also up from the CS Hayes in Melbourne, but look to be up against it. Then again, perhaps connections know they’ve got a mudlark and think it’s worth a trip north of the border.
Harper’s Choice won’t lack fitness for Gerald Ryan, coming off three runs between 1800-1900m, but is five weeks between assignments.
Invincible Gem is the lone filly in the field, and a smart one at that, coming in off three wins in a row. Last start, she fair donkey-licked a very handy filly in Faraway Town in the Spring Stakes. She’ll give them something to think about if she handles the going.
The conditions make this something of a lottery, and you’re probably better off halving your bet, but stick with what you like and just hope they get through it.
Selections: 1.Man From Uncle 2.Invincible Gem 3.Comin’ Through 4.Echo Effect
The Canterbury Stakes is the other Group 1 feature on the Randwick card, run over the unusual distance of 1300m under weight-for-age conditions.
There was much conjecture over Chautauqua’s return in the Rubiton Stakes at Caulfield, where he ran third behind Super Cash and I Am A Star. Was he just plain? Was he looking like a miler? Some thought he did enough with pleasing closing sectionals.
Whatever the answer, he hasn’t looked the same horse since his Chairman’s Sprint win in Hong Kong, which came off the back of another amazing TJ Smith win.
Music Magnate is already a Group 1 WFA winner, taking out the Doomben 10,000 in Brisbane last May, and returned at his best to win the Expressway Stakes with something in hand. He’s been freshened since that run, set for this, and will make his own luck on the speed.
Le Romain had been chasing home good horses all spring before landing the new Cantala Stakes on Derby Day at Flemington, thanks to a Hugh Bowman gem. It looks like he will make a very nice sprinter-miler given his return win over 1200m in the Southern Cross, carrying 61kgs. His wet track credentials are sound.
Japonisme is hard to find these days, and who knows what he will produce first-up. He failed on a heavy track first-up last prep. Hauraki won the Tramway on the heavy last prep, and is undoubtedly a Group 1 horse, and while 1300m seems a fraction short for him, he can spring a surprise.
Ugo Foscolo is the fascinating runner, resuming off a New Zealand Guineas win having come across the Tasman and been put into the care of Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. Market support and a seven-length trial win say he’s here to win.
Impending was awful first-up in the Southern Cross behind Le Romain, and meets that horse 4.5kg’s worse for a three and a half-length defeat after he gave up the ghost early in the straight when not getting the room he liked.
In three Sydney runs in the spring, the only horses to beat Impending home were Astern, Star Turn and Omei Sword. His best from then is good enough to challenge here, but he’s a wait-and-see prospect now.
Music Magnate and Le Romain should push forward, especially given they know the racing style of their main rival Chautauqua, and they will look to get him out of his ground on the slops, and hope he hasn’t got the sprint he once had.
Selections: 1.Music Magnate 2.Le Romain 3.Chautauqua 4.Hauraki
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