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There’s nothing better than taking a mere 80 minutes of football – or more, if the team in question went to golden point – and using it to judge how the rest of the NRL season will unfold.
One would think it’s too small of a sample size to really gauge anything conclusive, but that doesn’t stop some fans from thinking the sky is falling and their team’s season is already over – or other fans arranging their grand final tickets and celebration parties.
So I thought I’d analyse the five biggest overreactions I heard from the first round of NRL football to ascertain if there’s actually any merit at all in them.
1. Jarryd Hayne doesn’t want to be playing in the NRL
Hayne lacked energy, enthusiasm and commitment on Saturday night. He looked far from the superstar he’s been in the past, and honestly appeared as if he would have preferred to be anywhere else but playing rugby league.
So it stands to reason that he just doesn’t want to be playing NRL anymore.
He’s had so many different dreams – playing NFL, playing rugby for Fiji, cover model for the swimsuit edition of Sports Illustrated – that perhaps he feels like he has ticked the rugby league box and therefore is struggling for motivation.
Or perhaps it was just one game, and people should cut one of the best rugby league players of all time just a little bit of slack?
As you can tell, I’m not buying into this one just yet.
2. Souths’ season is over
The Rabbitohs didn’t look very good on Friday night, copping a hammering from the Wests Tigers in going down 34-18. The Tigers looked faster, fitter and younger than the Bunnies, and there’s a very good reason for that – they are.
Though to be fair, most of the doom and gloom about Souths prospects for the rest of 2017 centred around the serious knee injury to fullback Greg Inglis, rather than the way they actually played.
The potential loss of Inglis for the rest of the season is a major blow to the Bunnies. GI is not just Souths’ captain, he’s their best player, a game-breaker, and a lynchpin to much of their success.
The Bunnies were already a long way from being the favourites to win the competition, and now with the absence of Inglis, I actually don’t think it’s an overreaction to say their chances of winning the premiership are done and dusted.
Which makes some idiot’s prediction last week that they would win the competition look a little silly . . .
3. The Penrith Panthers and Canberra Raiders are overrated
It was interesting to hear how many people were pencilling in a Canberra versus Penrith grand final in the pre-season.
While both clubs had impressive seasons last year, neither team has a lot of finals football experience. Additionally, both play an exciting style of rugby league with flair – which is fantastic – yet it’s a style of play that has rarely been effective in winning the NRL premiership.
I thought some pundits were getting a little over-excited in proclaiming those two teams to be the grand finalists.
Such is the fickle of nature of rugby league fans, that after one round of football, both teams were tagged with the dreaded ‘overrated’ tag. It would seem opinions in the NRL change quicker than James Roberts.
The narrative for the Panthers was that they can’t be serious title contenders if they let the lowly-rated Dragons put 42 points on them, while for the Raiders, the commentary was that they are still pretenders in comparison to serious premiership teams like the Cowboys, hence their loss to them on Saturday.
Certain grand finalists, or extremely overrated?
The truth, as ever, probably lies somewhere in the middle. Expectations were a little high in announcing them as certain grand finalists. However, calling teams overrated after just one game is absolutely ridiculous, especially the Raiders, who went to golden point against North Queensland in North Queensland for goodness sake.
4. The New Zealand Warriors and Parramatta Eels have turned the corner after a disappointing 2016
I’ll cut right to the chase on this one: just calm the farm, peeps.
Both New Zealand and Parramatta should take a lot out of their wins on Sunday afternoon. For the Warriors, it was the first time they’d won their opening game since approximately 1975. Or thereabouts. For the Eels, they actually played very well in a scoreline that somewhat flatters their opposition.
However, they beat Newcastle and Manly, respectively. Not exactly competition heavyweights, to put it mildly.
Though the Knights will be a lot better this year than almost everyone expected, and Manly have some young players coming through, I still think both teams will finish in the bottom three. As such, I find it a little hard to get overwhelmed by a victory against them, and think judgement should be reserved until better teams are faced by the Warriors and Eels.
5. The Bulldogs can’t execute when near an opponents’ tryline
An upfront confession on this last overreaction: it’s my own personal one.
My biggest gripe with the Bulldogs over the last few seasons has been their horrible decision-making on the fifth tackle when inside a team’s 20-metre line. It feels like, more than any other side, the Dogs struggle to come up with the right play at the right time, squandering great field position and terrific lead-up work from their pack.
Kicking the ball dead, getting tackled on the fifth, a front-row forward being stuck with the ball in his hands, or any other number of dumb plays, have been the Dogs’ calling card for a few seasons.
Friday’s night’s loss to the Storm indicated that we shouldn’t expect anything different in 2017, for once again the Dogs had their chances, but couldn’t capitalise. It’s been an issue for some time now, but 80 minutes of football would suggest nothing has been addressed for this year.
You could call it an overreaction, considering we’re just one game into the season, but I don’t think it is, once you take into account that it’s a two or three-year trend.