In the past week, 17 football analysts and journalists from the Herald Sun put forth their predictions for the final eight for season 2017. For any of their forecasts to ring true it would require a turn of events that hasn’t been seen in the last 20 AFL seasons.
By far the most common outcome put forward by the panel was for there to be only one change to the composition of the top eight in 2017 from that in 2016 (ten of 17 experts put forward a top eight listing that fell into this category).
These predictions were made despite there never having been a season with only one change in the year-to-year composition of teams competing in the finals in the history of the eight-team finals system.
In fact, you have to go back to 1990, when the newly renamed AFL was made up of 14 teams and the finals were contested by five teams, to find a season with only once change to the teams competing in the finals.
Another way to state this is that 58 per cent of experts from this newspaper are predicting an outcome that has roughly a three per cent probability of occurring.
Each of the other seven experts put forward top eight combinations that would require two changes to the makeup of the finals teams.
At first glance this is not unreasonable, in fact there have been seven seasons in the past 20 years that have had two changes to the top eight. Where history begins to challenge this prediction is when you look at the number of changes over consecutive seasons.
Moving from season 2015 to season 2016, there were two changes to the top eight – Geelong and Greater Western Sydney came in and Richmond and Fremantle dropped out. If 2017 was to be another year of just two changes to the top eight we would have had two consecutive seasons with two changes. In the past 20 seasons, and in fact across the entire history of the final eight system, there has never been two consecutive years of two changes or fewer to the top eight.
Injuries, form, player development, the draw, equalisation measures and luck all have played a role in ensuring we have seen a least five changes over a two-year period for the past 20 years. You have to go back to 1991-92, when finals were contested by six teams, to find two consecutive years with two changes to the teams competing in the finals.
For any of the Herald Sun panel to be correct we are going to have to see a first in the 23-year history of the final eight system, either a year of only one change to the top eight or a two-year period with four changes or less to top-eight teams.
So what do the last 20 seasons tell us to expect? The most common number of changes from season to season over the last 20 years, has been three, this has occurred 11 times and there have been two season with four changes, or a whopping 50 per cent turnover in teams seeing finals action.
In a few weeks we should expect to see the football analysts and journalists from Melbourne’s other major newspaper to make their predictions for season 2017 – will theirs also fly in the face of modern history?
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